The Duke Blue Devils are nearly at the finish line with only two more games left on the schedule. Barring a big blip in those final contests, the Blue Devils are destined for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Today’s massive spread against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons confirms Duke’s elite status, but while books expect another one-sided win, injuries to key contributors and a pending finale vs. North Carolina could have the Blue Devils playing it safe.
I predict a fast start from the favorite, before cruising in the final 20 minutes. That’s why I’m looking at the first-half odds for my Wake Forest vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks on March 3.
Wake Forest vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Duke first half -12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The ACC schedule has been somewhat of a formality for the Duke Blue Devils. The focus for Jon Scheyer’s team has always been the postseason, more specifically winning the conference tournament and earning an easier path through the Big Dance.
Record wise, Duke is ready to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, but it did get a few scares in recent games, with injuries to key players threatening those March plans.
Junior forward Maliq Brown has missed time with a shoulder injury, standout guard Tyrese Proctor is nursing a bruised knee, and superstar freshman Cooper Flagg made every NBA lottery team gasp when he suffered an eye injury in the win over Florida State on Saturday.
While Flagg is fine and expected to play against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tonight, Brown and Proctor will likely remain sidelined to rest up for the final game with UNC and the upcoming ACC tournament.
The spread for tonight’s game lists the host Blue Devils as 20.5-point favorites but I’m hesitant to lay that lumber knowing Duke’s mind could be elsewhere. For that reason, I’m looking at the first-half spread.
Scheyer’s goal is to get this win over Wake and protect his team for bigger and better things. The best way to do so is to come out swinging and blast the Deacs in the opening 20 minutes, allowing Duke to cruise and rest (protect) the key rotation players in the second half. That plan won’t be too hard to execute since Wake Forest is among the worst first-half teams in the ACC.
The Demon Deacons score less than 33 points per first half on 41% shooting — second lowest in the conference. Those initial frames have been even harder in recent outings, with Wake Forest trailing at the half in each of its last four contests while averaging 31 first-half points in those outings.
Whatever coach Steve Forbes says in the locker room at halftime should be bottled and sold. The Deacons are a different side in the second half (38 second-half ppg on 49.4% shooting). That two-faced play has been prominent in recent games, with Wake Forest averaging 30.7 1H points before putting up 43.4 2H points over the past three outings.
As for the Blue Devils’ opening 20 minutes of action, it’s no surprise to see them among the best teams out of the gate — on both ends of the floor.
Duke scores 40.7 1H points per game on the season (sixth in the country) and has upped that to 49.3 points over the last three contests. It hits at almost 47% from the field in those opening stanzas. Defensively, the Dukies allow just 29.3 1H points against and that average sinks to 26.7 1H ppg allowed in Cameron Indoor.
These programs clashed in Wake Forest on January 25 in what would be one of Duke's ugliest victories. The Blue Devils failed to cover the full-game spread of -11.5 in the 63-56 win, but did hold a 35-22 edge at the halftime break.
In their last three games as favorites of 20+ points, the Blue Devils have held halftime leads of 15, 15, and 17. Given tonight’s full-game projections and the first-half splits for these Tobacco Road rivals, I’m calling for Duke to hold around a 17.5-point advantage at the break and that’s before factoring in the Blue Devils’ need to put the Demon Deacons away early.
Cooper Flagg pick: Freshman's services not needed late
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
As mentioned, Flagg suffered a shot to the eye in the win over FSU. While he’s OK to play tonight, the Blue Devils would be best served to protect their star player in what will be an easy victory.
Flagg will anchor the Dukies’ first-half charge before being relegated to the bench in the final 20 minutes. Full-game projections are tough to tackle, since I believe Flagg won’t log his normal amount of floor time.
We’ve seen his usage dip over the past three games, with the Blue Devils smoking opponents by an average margin of 38.3 points per game. Some models forecast 17 points over 28 minutes of action, and even that could be bullish.
Once Duke gets up big, Scheyer will give some needed run to the reserves and Flagg will be bubble wrapped until Saturday’s game with North Carolina.
Wake Forest vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke first half -13.5
Wake Forest first half team total Under 28.5
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points
The Blue Devils need to put Wake Forest away early. Luckily for the Dukies, the Deacs are horrible starters. I call for a 17+ lead for Duke at the break.
As great as the Blue Devils are on offense, their first-half defense punches foes in the face right from the jump. Wake has barely been able to score 30 1H points in recent games.
Flagg will get his in the opening half but with the Blue Devils pulling away, expect Scheyer to sit his star freshman in the second half.
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Wake Forest vs Duke odds
Wake Forest vs Duke live odds
Wake Forest vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Wake Forest +20.5 | Duke -20.5
- Moneyline: Wake Forest +1600 | Duke -5000
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Wake Forest vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke has covered the first-half spread in 21 of its last 36 games (+3.55 units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wake Forest vs. Duke.
How to watch Wake Forest vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Wake Forest vs Duke key injuries
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