The No. 24 Duke Blue Devils host the Pittsburgh Panthers at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Wednesday night.
The Panthers have been one of the best teams to bet on lately while the Blue Devils are coming off a pair of shaky performances on the road. The Blue Devils are expected to bounce back at home, with college basketball betting odds opening with the Blue Devils as 8-point favorites.
Here are my best free Pittsburgh vs. Duke college basketball picks and predictions for January 11.
Pittsburgh vs Duke best odds
Pittsburgh vs Duke picks and predictions
Duke has a very young squad which has led to plenty of inconsistency in Jon Scheyer's first year as head coach. The Blue Devils had impressive early season victories against Xavier and Ohio State but they also looked flat at other times and haven't impressed in conference play.
They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games, with double-digit defeats to Wake Forest and North Carolina State during that span.
They are coming off a contest where they barely held on to beat a Boston College team that is just 8-8. Duke's offense managed to score just nine points during a 13-minute span in the second half and looked extremely sloppy down the stretch. It was obvious that the Blue Devils missed the steady hand of point guard Jeremy Roach, and he's expected to be sidelined again today due to a toe injury.
That's bad news against a Pitt team that has looked terrific in ACC play and is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games. The Panthers are coming off a close loss to a red-hot Clemson squad but they had won their previous five games which included upset victories versus Virginia and North Carolina.
Look for the highly-experienced Panthers to keep things close against a Duke team that has looked more green than blue.
My best bet: Pittsburgh +8.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
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Pittsburgh vs Duke spread analysis
The Blue Devils are fresh off a 65-64 road win against Boston College where they failed to cover as 8-point faves. However, that ugly win and their two recent defeats to Wake and NC State all came on the road.
They're much tougher to handle in Durham, where they are a perfect 8-0 this season and have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
Pittsburgh is coming off a 75-74 loss at home to Clemson but considering that the Tigers are atop the ACC with a 5-0 mark, the Panthers shouldn't feel too bad. It was a bit of a letdown spot for them anyway after pulling off close upset wins against North Carolina and Virginia.
Pitt is 40th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom but ranks just 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Panthers have four players averaging double-digits in points led by Blake Hinson (16.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game) and Jamarius Burton (16.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 4.0 assists per game).
Duke has relied on several highly-touted freshmen, including Kyle Filipowski (team-high 13.9 ppg), Mark Mitchell (9.8 ppg), Dariq Whitehead, and Tyrese Proctor.
Whitehead was the top-rated recruit in the country, according to Rivals, and while injuries slowed down his early-season development, he has averaged 15.3 ppg in his last four contests.
The Blue Devils have been solid on both ends of the court and are 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 38th on defense.
Pittsburgh vs Duke Over/Under analysis
Both teams do a good job of attacking the offensive glass but neither shoots the ball particularly well. The Panthers are 169th in the country in field goal percentage (44.8%) while the Blue Devils are 227th at 43.9%.
The Panthers are also very reliant on outside shots and the Blue Devils limit foes to a 29.1% 3-point rate — 24th in the country.
The Panthers will once again be missing John Hugley IV, who has been out for the last month due to personal reasons. Hugley led the school with 14.8 ppg last year and while the Panthers have been far less reliant on him this season, their scoring punch off the bench will be reduced.
The Blue Devils will be more affected by the absence of Roach, who averages 11.9 ppg and a team-high 3.2 apg. They'll be forced to run their offense through far less experienced ball handlers in Proctor, Whitehead, and sophomore Jaylen Blakes.
Duke is also 270th in the nation in adjusted tempo and that combined with how out of sync their offense has looked without Roach could lead to a lower-scoring contest.
Pittsburgh vs Duke betting trend to know
The Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. Pittsburgh State.
Pittsburgh vs Duke game info
| Location: | Cameroon Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
