The curtain raiser of the ACC tournament is a compelling matchup when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish face off with the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Neither of these teams came into the season expecting to play on the first day of the conference tournament, but that’s where we are. The Irish had outside hopes of making the NCAA tournament with the hire of rising head coach Micah Shrewsbury in his second season.
As for Pittsburgh, its expectation was squarely set on the Big Dance and will come into this tournament trying to make a special run to get there. Can the Irish stop them cold in their tracks? It's possible and we expect a close battle.
Read on for my Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11.
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame prediction
Who will win Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame?
According to my model, this is a true coin-flip game; when that happens, I’m inclined to lean on the coaching. The postseason records (including conference tournaments) for each both have their positives, but overall, Micah Shrewsbury edges out Panthers coach Jeff Capel in that category.
It helps that there are more direct routes for Notre Dame to score, too. I’m going with the Irish to spring the mild upset. Playing better than their opponent coming into the postseason counts for something.
My best bet
Under 137.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The most impressive statistic from the entire ACC tournament can be found in this game. That stat? Micah Shrewsbury is 9-1 ATS in 10 career conference tournament games. In other words, if he’s coaching, you can bank on these games being tightly fought and for his acumen to shine through. Typically, his games have turned into defensive battles. I’m expecting that to happen here.
While I think there’s a coaching mismatch that would have me leaning the way of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, I see a more significant edge on the Under, and it’s my best bet.
From 30,000 feet, the first meeting between these teams saw 148 points but only 62 possessions. Naturally, you’d imagine it required some highly-efficient offense, and you’d be right.
The two teams combined for 1.22 points per possession and 1.16 points per possession, which means they both overperformed compared to what they’ve been this season. On principle, I don’t think that’s repeatable out of the gate in a venue neither team has had any experience playing in. Outside of that, both teams are suited well to defend the other.
With the injuries the Pittsburgh Panthers have suffered this season, they've become highly reliant on two methods of scoring: isolations and pick-and-pops. Notre Dame is one of the better isolation defenses in the country, ranking in the Top 5% nationally in such sets and holding opponents to .61 points per possession.
The Irish also aren't far behind defensively in slowing down pick-and-pop opponents. Pitt will want to speed this game up and score in transition, but as we saw in the first meeting, the Irish are tough to do that against.
On the other side, there are no doubt things Notre Dame can exploit. However, the pace comes into play. The Irish have one of basketball's longest average possession lengths at 19.3 seconds. That’s well among the slowest among Power Five teams. In addition, ND will have added incentive to keep this game at a slow pace so the Panthers can’t exploit a poor transition defense.
The most likely scenario is that this game will turn into a rock fight for a while before Pittsburgh speeds the game up late to get some easy baskets. It won't be enough to push it Over the total, though.
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 137.5
Notre Dame moneyline
We added the Irish to win the game with our best bet for this SGP. Reading the above, you could have guessed that.
I give the Irish a coaching edge, but I expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. When that happens, the advantages Notre Dame has on attack and kicks with Markus Burton — where Pittsburgh allows 1.02 points per possession — can be exploited.
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Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame odds
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame live odds
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 | Notre Dame +3.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -176 | Notre Dame +146
- Over/Under: Over 137.5 | Under 137.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Pittsburgh has cashed the first-half Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.15 units / 14% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame.
How to watch Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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