Providence vs Creighton Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Carter Cooks the Bluejays

It's Creighton and Providence leading off the night in the Big East Tournament, as the two teams will be vying for a spot in the semifinals.

The Friars dominated Georgetown last night to get to this point, going on to win by 18 points. It's been a topsy-turvy end of the year for Providence as it lost two of its last four games to end the year. The Bluejays come to this tournament with the opportunity to bolster their March Madness odds. Creighton got it going at the end of the season with three straight wins, including a two-point victory over Villanova.
 
What's the best bet in this one? Find out when I look at the Big East Tournament odds and give my free college basketball picks for Providence vs. Creighton on March 14.

For more NCAAB coverage, be sure to check out our Conference Tournament odds page.

Providence vs Creighton best odds

Providence vs Creighton picks and predictions

I'm going back to the well. 

Last night, I played Devin Carter Over points and got the game script I had expected on many fronts. The game stayed close enough for Carter to remain engaged in it: Carter got to the spaces on the floor he needed to, and, in addition, he got the ball up 16 times. The shots didn't fall for him at the rate I expected, but I don't think that happens twice in a row. 

"Dev had such a career-defining moment earlier today, winning the Player of the Year award," Providence coach Kim English said. "And as I was sitting there, I was like, usually the Player of the Year probably (isn't) playing on Wednesday. But he was up since 9:30, shooting around, then went straight to the Garden for the press conference."

Some effects of Carter's big day may have lingered in his play. 

He didn't look sharp even though he finished the game with 19 points; it was reasonably inefficient. No such luck for Creighton today. Not only has Carter been great against the Jays this season — scoring 25+ points in both games against them — but they are also getting him off a poor shooting night.

That's usually a bad thing for the opposition. Over the last month when Carter came off a game where he shot below his season average, he followed things up by shooting 50.3%. History has a good chance of repeating itself with this matchup.

Creighton has been flat-out bad defending the pick-and-roll this season. 

It ranks in the Bottom 9% of college basketball in doing so and has allowed .877 points per possession on such sets. That's why Carter has found so much success against the Jays. He's shredded them in middle-ball screens, getting downhill and scoring at the rim.

Although the Bluejays defense is built to funnel things toward the rim and let Ryan Kalkbrenner do his thing, he could have been more effective against Carter. He'll enter this game in the Top 12% of college basketball in pick-and-roll scoring, and I expect him to continue rolling in that area of the floor. 

For me, Carter's scoring prop is the best bet in this game. 

My best bet: Devin Carter Over 18.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)

Providence vs Creighton same-game parlay

Devin Carter Over 18.5 points

Baylor Scheierman Over 19.5 points

+260 at bet365

I'm paring my best bet with a player prop on the other side for a similar reason. Providence also has issues defending the pick-and-roll, and Scheierman is the best pick-and-roll scorer in the sport. 

Scheierman enters this game averaging an eye-popping 1.29 points per possession on pick-and-roll sets this season. That's the best in the league, putting him in the genuinely elite category of college basketball players. He's hit this number in two of his last three games, and there's every reason to expect him to do it today.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Providence vs Creighton spread and Over/Under analysis

Each of these teams has similar offensive advantages, and this game is likely to come down to who can get better shot-making from its critical elements. Creighton has more weapons, but Devin Carter is the best player on the floor. Can his brilliance push them through? 

I like the Over 141 here as it's short compared to my numbers. 

As I've chronicled above, the path for both teams to get regular half-court scoring is solid. Not only are those open shots likely to come, but they're likely to come in high percentage areas on the floor, which is even better for an Over play. The Jays have been on a decent Over run as of late, with two of their last three games going in that direction. 

Providence vs Creighton betting trend to know

Providence has hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.30 Units / 4% ROI) . Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. Creighton.

Providence vs Creighton game info

Providence vs Creighton key injuries

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