The Purdue Boilermakers face the Marquette Golden Eagles at Fiserv Forum tonight at 9 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Golden Eagles are 5-point home favorites and my Purdue vs. Marquette predictions are betting on their offense to fire on all cylinders tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash between Top-25 schools on November, 19.
Purdue vs Marquette prediction
My best bet
Marquette Team Total Over 79.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Marquette Golden Eagles said goodbye to All-American point guard Tyler Kolek in the offseason. However, they returned three starters and their two best bench players with guard Kam Jones (24.0 points and 5.0 assists per game) the best of the bunch.
The Purdue Boilermakers have Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith anchoring the backcourt for the third straight year. Meanwhile, junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.0 ppg on 58.3 FG%) has stepped up after the departure of National Player of the Year Zach Edey.
The loss of Edey has hurt even more on the defensive end of the floor where they've been unable to protect the rim and rank outside the Top 200 in defensive rebounding rate. They've allowed Alabama and Yale to shoot 60.6% from inside the arc over their last two games and even let lowly Texas A&M-Corpus Christi shoot 50% from 2-point range.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 87-78 home win against an up-tempo Alabama squad but were fortunate the Crimson Tide went just 0-for-8 on midrange jumpers and 9-for-29 from deep, because they were getting open looks.
They'll have a tough time containing Marquette, who is 31st in the country in 2-point percentage (60.2%) and does a great job of taking care of the ball (22nd in turnover rate). The Golden Eagles are tough to defend because they can score in several ways. They are 31st in efficiency in attacking the rim, 61st in transition efficiency, and space the floor with multiple shooters.
The Golden Eagles are fresh off a 78-74 road win against a Maryland squad that plays at a slow pace and ranks 12th in the country in defensive efficiency (81.5 points per 100 possessions). They should eclipse their team total at home versus a Boilermakers side that is 180th in defensive efficiency (102.6 points per 100 possessions).
Purdue vs Marquette same-game parlay
Marquette Team Total Over 79.5
David Joplin Over 5.5 rebounds
Purdue Alt Spread +8.5
David Joplin has snagged at least 7+ boards in three of four games this season. He's coming off an 8-rebound performance against the Terps, who have a pair of excellent bigs in Derik Queen and Julian Reese. He'll find it even easier to attack the glass vs. Purdue's unathletic frontcourt.
The Golden Eagles can run up the score when their defensive pressure leads to turnovers but Loyer and Smith are experienced and rarely cough up the ball. We saw that last year when Purdue beat Marquette 78-75 in the Maui Invitational with Loyer and Smith combining for just four turnovers in 69 minutes.
The Golden Eagles have taken early money pushing their spread from -3 to -5 which seems a tad steep since KenPom is projecting a 2-point Marquette win with Bart Torvik setting the line at -2.8. Marquette should put up plenty of points but Purdue will keep this game within three possessions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Marquette odds
Purdue vs Marquette live odds
Purdue vs Marquette opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +3 | Marquette -3
- Moneyline: Purdue +140 | Marquette -165
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 | Under 155.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Marquette betting trend to know
The Over is 24-15 in Purdue's last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Marquette.
How to watch Purdue vs Marquette
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Purdue vs Marquette key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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