The Gonzaga Bulldogs look to regain control of second place in the West Coast Conference standings as they host the San Francisco Dons in Spokane tonight on ESPN.
The Dons are rolling, picking up four straight wins including a 65-64 victory over conference leader Saint Mary’s. But our San Francisco vs. Gonzaga predictions expect those good times will stop rolling vs. the Bulldogs.
I analyze why with my college basketball picks for this 11 p.m. tip on Thursday, February 13.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga prediction
My best bet
Gonzaga -14.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It might be human nature to see this spread and immediately assume that there’s value in the underdog. After all, the San Francisco Dons have one more conference win than the Gonzaga Bulldogs and recently accomplished what no other WCC team has been able to do, Gonzaga included — topple Saint Mary’s.
The Dons have reeled off three straight 20-win seasons under head coach Chris Gerlufsen. They’re looking to break into the upper crust of the WCC and a win Thursday night would go a long way in proving that this program has taken the next step.
I’m betting on a different outcome given the history of this matchup.
Mark Few has dominated the Dons, going 53-4 against them in his long career. Gonzaga has won 30 meetings in a row, and eight of the last 10 have come by double digits. Talk about domination.
There are some schematic advantages as well. Gonzaga likes to attack the rim, and that’s precisely where its opponent is weakest. USF is allowing an incredible amount of shots in the paint, ranking 342nd in Haslametrics’ near-proximity attempt rate.
Gerlufsen’s defensive philosophy involves shutting down the 3-point line. USF ranks ninth in 3-pointers allowed per game (5.7), but Gonzaga doesn’t live and die from long range and will be content to push the pace and attack the rim relentlessly.
USF isn’t anything particularly special offensively and its calling card is its defense. There’s been some slippage there, however, as the Dons rank 103rd in BartTorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, and this is far from an ideal matchup.
I was on the Dons and recommended them plus the points hosting Saint Mary’s last week as it was a great situational spot at home, where they play much better basketball. Backing them on the road is a much dicier proposition (344th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric).
Gonzaga has suffered some uncharacteristic losses this season and is on a miserable run against the spread, going 3-14 ATS in its last 17 contests. Still, the Bulldogs rank 11th overall in KenPom and are a supremely talented team with plenty of motivation thanks to the early losses in conference play.
They’ve dominated this matchup historically (35 straight home wins), so they’ll have my money in this spot.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzaga -14.5
Over 153.5
There are only two teams in the college basketball realm featuring six players who average double digits — Kentucky and Gonzaga.
The Zags rank seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and like to push pace (50th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo), leading to an average of 87.2 points per game. They’re poised to capitalize on their strength in a soft matchup against USF’s defense that allows a plentitude of looks at the rim.
There’s every reason to expect a strong offensive performance from Gonzaga at home against a USF defense ranked outside the Top 100 in efficiency in conference play and struggling on the road.
For the Over to hit, that likely requires the Dons to contribute offensively. They’re averaging 73.8 PPG in the last eight meetings in this series and typically run the Zags, and they’ll likely have to again if the rim defense doesn’t hold up.
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San Francisco vs Gonzaga odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga live odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco +14.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +750 | Gonzaga -1200
- Over/Under: Over 153 (-115) | Under 153 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
San Francisco vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Gonzaga has won 30 straight games against San Francisco, with eight of the last 10 coming by double digits. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch San Francisco vs Gonzaga
| Location | McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA |
| Date | Thursday, 2-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
San Francisco vs Gonzaga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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