SMU vs North Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Positive Regression for Mean Green

They say that things are bigger in Texas, and tonight's American Athletic Conference matchup features two big defenses when the SMU Mustangs meet the North Texas Mean Green.

SMU rolls into Denton, TX with a three-game winning streak and a 4-1 AAC mark in conference play. North Texas has a matching 4-1 conference mark but saw their six-game winning streak halted with a 12-point away loss to Charlotte.

Join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for SMU vs. North Texas on Thursday, January 25.

SMU vs North Texas best odds

SMU vs North Texas picks and predictions

The AAC has provided us with some highly-competitive matchups this season, and tonight’s SMU and North Texas tilt won’t change that trend one bit.

Both programs are 4-1 in the AAC for a reason; they are the Top 2 defensive teams in the conference and two of the best nationally in points allowed per game. Defense is both programs' calling cards, and they are exceptional at it.

North Texas allows 58 points per game at home and is coming off an away loss where they should’ve won. They allowed a paltry 56 points at Charlotte, but the Mean Green offense was lousy. Leading scorer Jason Edwards had one of his worst shooting nights of the season, and North Texas left Charlotte with its first conference loss.

SMU plays a robust defense of its own. They allow a stingy 62.4 points per game, and 16 of their 18 opponents have scored 70 or fewer points. The Mustangs force 13.5 turnovers, which they turn into 16.1 points per night with the conferences second-best block rate.   

This will be a hard-fought contest that the Mean Green can and should win.

North Texas must bring their defensive “A” game, and I expect their sneakers to squeak tonight. The Mean Green play stingy defense but must be ready for an SMU program that torched Tulsa for 103 points on 41% shooting from downtown and 51.4% from inside the arc. 

I don’t have any doubts about the North Texas defense bringing it. That’s a given because that’s what they do. The Mean Green must take care of the rock because SMU is adept at forcing turnovers and forced 18 against Tulsa. If they repeat that performance tonight, the Mustangs will run North Texas out of their own barn. 

Edwards is the straw that stirs the North Texas offensive drink, and he’s coming off a stinker against Charlotte. He was 27% from the floor and 0-for-8 from downtown Charlotte but is a 39% shooter from long range at home, and I expect a bounce-back performance from the young guard.

Finally, this is a game North Texas really needs to win, and they will win. They play stout defense at home, and the Mustangs have been on an eight-game run where they can’t seem to miss a shot. That will change tonight against the conference's best defense, which has recently been even stingier at home. 

The Mean Green have had turnover issues but have recently done a much better job of taking care of the ball. That will keep SMU from enjoying the 16.2 points they score from opponents' miscues while we look for Edwards to go off and North Texas to get a much-needed home victory. 

My best bet: North Texas moneyline (+100 at ESPN BET)

SMU vs North Texas same-game parlay

North Texas moneyline

Over 126.5

25% boost available

+270 +338 at DraftKings

ESPN BET doesn’t offer a same-game parlay for this tilt, but DraftKings gives us a reasonable price on the moneyline and Over for a two-leg card paying $270 for a $100 stake.

I like North Texas and don’t mind paying the -110 for that leg. I see the North Texas offense catching fire behind Edwards and the defense corralling the red-hot Mustangs shooters, likely due to some regression into a rough shooting night.

These defenses are tough, but that number is too low. SMU can score the basketball and crash the offensive glass with reckless abandon. They also allow far too many offensive caroms of their own, and North Texas is a solid offensive rebounding side. 

There’s also always the danger of a game like this ending in overtime, but either way, I believe this game ends in the low 130s and clears the total. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

SMU vs North Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

I like North Texas to win this game, especially with the even-money odds on offer at ESPN BET.

Several bookmakers have North Texas as a +1.5-home underdog but paying -115 or more doesn’t seem worth it to me. The Mean Green have won 16 of their previous 18 home games, and a trend that strong is worth tailing.

BetRivers is the only US sportsbook to hang SMU +1 (-110) on the board. Pinnacle also offers +1 (-114) and is the only other bookmaker taking points against North Texas. The Mustangs are 5-0-0 ATS as the away team this season, and while it might be worth a look, I don’t believe they’ll be able to cover the number because North Texas is a solid 5-1-0 ATS at home this season. 

DraftKings opened the Over at 126, and after rising as high as 128, it has fallen right back to where it opened. Over 126 (-110) is also available at Caesars and bet365, while the rest have numbers ranging from Over 126.5 (-110 at Caesars and FanDuel) to Superbooks' best number on the Under at 127.5 (-110).

Finally, North Texas are a dominant 16-2 over their previous 18 at home. I’ll watch this game to find a better moneyline number in-game for North Texas. It won’t take much for the public to back SMU, and if the Mustangs land a few shots early, the odds will rise in the Mean Green's favor, and I will hammer it if/when it does.   

SMU vs North Texas betting trend to know

North Texas has hit the moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games at home (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for SMU vs. North Texas.

SMU vs North Texas game info

SMU vs North Texas key injuries

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