Stanford vs Washington State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Scoring High in Sin City

Is this the year for Kyle Smith and the No. 22-ranked Washington State Cougars? It’s certainly been a long time — the Cougars have never cut down the nets in the conference tournament and last won the regular season title in 1940-41. 

They enter this year’s tournament in Las Vegas as the No. 2 seed with high expectations. After a first-round bye, Smith’s squad laces them up on Thursday night against the No. 10-seeded Stanford Cardinal (14-17, 8-12). Jerod Haase’s squad notched a miraculous comeback victory in Overtime against No. 7 seed California in the opening round a day ago. 

Looking at the conference tournament odds, the Cougars are 8.5-point favorites and the total resides at 140.5. Will Stanford’s shooting struggles carry over from Game 1 to Game 2, or was that an outlier performance?

Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Stanford vs. Washington State below to find out.

Stanford vs Washington State best odds

Stanford vs Washington State picks and predictions

Kyle Smith’s No. 2 seed Washington State Cougars had a mightily successful season, entering the postseason ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll. They racked up a 23-8 record that included two wins over Arizona, the conference’s regular season champs. That should fill the Cougs with plenty of confidence going into Las Vegas. 

Pac-12 Freshman of the Year and First Team All-Pac-12 member Myles Rice is a star, averaging 15.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. He’s joined by fifth-year forward and fellow First Team All-Pac-12 nominee Isaac Jones (15.4 points, 7.6 rebounds) to form one of the conference’s best duos. 

After a first-round bye, the Cougars face off with the No. 10-seeded Stanford Cardinals in the second round on Thursday night. It looked for a while like Jerod Haase’s squad was going home early in the first round as they fell way behind No. 7-seed Cal for much of the game before launching an improbable comeback to advance. 

Cal grabbed a 14-3 lead early and didn’t look back for a while, leading 45-34 at half and 63-47 with 13:32 remaining in the second half. Here’s the thing — the Golden Bears stopped scoring after that, scoring just two points in the next 12 minutes and 27 seconds of playing time. 

Stanford forced two turnovers on inbound passes in the final 21 seconds to force overtime, where it went on to grab its first lead of the game and eventually pull away for an 87-76 victory. That final score almost makes it looks like an effortless victory if you look at nothing else.

Where does that leave us for Thursday’s second-round showdown? The Cougars swept the two regular-season meetings, winning 89-75 in Palo Alto and 72-59 on the Palouse. College basketball odds have established Wazzu as an 8.5-point favorite, which seems justified. 

Both teams have some injury concerns. For Stanford, starting forward Spencer Jones has been battling through a wrist injury. He played through it on Wednesday and despite being visibly troubled with his wrapped shooting hand, managed a superb stat line of 20 points, seven rebounds, two assists, four steals, and two blocks.

On the flip side, Wazzu wing Andrej Jakimovski is considered questionable after playing in the season finale with a shoulder injury that limited his effectiveness. 

Rather than playing a side, I’m eyeing the total of 140.5. Stanford’s defense has been a known issue all year. The Cardinal allow 76.4 ppg and rank 127th in KenPom’s adjusted deficiency. Sure, Cal went on a long scoring drought — but the Bears were scoring at will in the first half and Stanford’s defenders expended a lot of energy in the second half and OT, meaning many will have tired legs today. 

Wazzu holds the statistical advantage in all three areas of the court (behind the arc, in the mid-range, and at the rim) and should be able to put some points on the board. 

On the flip side, Stanford had an uncharacteristically bad shooting day in the opener, canning just five of its 24 threes. Haase’s squad is shooting 37.2% from downtown on the year and 73.6% from the foul stripe, so I’ll bet on that being an outlier performance.

The Cardinal have capable shooters up and down the lineup and this is a veteran-laden team that has found offensive success at T-Mobile Arena in recent tournaments. 

My best bet: Over 140.5 (-110 at bet365)

Stanford vs Washington State same-game parlay

Over 140.5

Washington State -8.5

+264 at bet365

Nothing about that first-round matchup gave me any confidence in Stanford. Watching that game live was an excruciating experience — it wasn’t so much that Stanford flipped a switch and went on a torrid run, rather it looked like Cal completely ran out of gas and had little motivation to win. It was bad basketball, period. 

I’ve wanted to believe in this Cardinal team so many times, but I can’t do it anymore. They have a ton of size and experience with all five starters standing at least 6-foot-5 and three seniors with a combined 15 years of experience all averaging double figures. They shoot the heck out of the ball and have played well at T-Mobile Arena before. 

Still, something is wrong with this team as it just hasn’t clicked and I won’t be waiting around for it any longer. Wazzu is a capable team that beat Arizona twice and has something to prove after dropping two of its final four games to end the regular season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Stanford vs Washington State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Wazzu -7.5 before getting bet up to -8.5 at current. One shop even opened as low as -5.5 before jumping up three full points within two and a half hours. Track any further movements using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager. 

I’m fine with that line movement. Stanford is just 4-11 away from home this season while Washington State is a respectable 8-6. The Cougars have covered each of the last three meetings between these schools. 

The Cougars hold a ton of advantages. They rank higher in offensive efficiency and are vastly superior on the defensive end, and they rank 20th in rebounding percentage (54.1%) as opposed to Stanfod’s 214th ranking on the glass (49.3%). The Cardinal have all that size but don’t necessarily use it well, making them vulnerable to opposing foot speed and physicality on the glass alike. 

That rebounding discrepancy loomed large during the regular season when Wazzu won the battle on the boards 32 to 23 in the first matchup and 35 to 20 in the second. 

As for the total, it opened at 139.5 before moving to 140.5 across most books and 141 at others. Stanford is 17-13-1 O/U this season, struggles mightily to defend most opponents, and has shot well in this gym in prior years. 

We’re getting a bit of a discount on the total as it was 144.5 in the first matchup (an Over) and 146 in the second (an Under).

Stanford vs Washington State betting trend to know

Stanford is 4-1 O/U in its last five games with a total below 150. Find more college basketball betting trends for Stanford vs. Washington State.

Stanford vs Washington State game info

Stanford vs Washington State key injuries

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