The No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers get their first taste of postseason action in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, taking on the No. 8 Syracuse Orange in Greensboro Thursday.
The Orange stomped NC State in the second round of the tournament Wednesday, extending their winning streak to three games after closing ACC play with victories over Clemson and North Carolina. The Cavaliers, who also won their final two regular season outings, knocked off Syracuse 81-58 at home as 7.5-point favorites back on January 25.
Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Syracuse vs. Virginia on March 11.
Syracuse vs Virginia odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVirginia bounced between -5.5 and -5 several times since this line opened Wednesday afternoon at FanDuel, and as of 10:45 a.m. ET today, the Cavaliers are at the opener of -5.5. Virginia is landing 61 percent of spread bets and 63 percent of spread money. The total is down to 130 from a 133 opener, with 68 percent of bets/61 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSyracuse Orange vs Virginia Cavaliers betting preview
Injuries
Syracuse: Bourama Sidibe C (Out).
Virginia: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Virginia has covered in four of the last five meetings with Syracuse. Find more NCAA betting trends for Syracuse vs. Virginia.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Syracuse had better repeat its offensive performance from Wednesday if it wants to edge Virginia’s dominant defense. The Orange came out firing in the win over the Wolfpack, making 14 of their 29 attempts from 3-point land and shooting nearly 57 percent from the field.
Syracuse did, however, benefit from a poor shooting day from NC State, which did a great job getting looks close to the basket but just couldn’t finish. The Wolfpack also pulled down 16 offensive rebounds but again, couldn’t convert those second-chance opportunities.
When Virginia took down the SU zone back in January, they cracked the Orange open like a melon by utilizing guard Kihei Clark in the high post and allowing him to distribute throughout. The Cavaliers have a soft-touch big in Sam Hauser (21 points vs. Orange), who won’t miss those bunnies around the rim, and can make SU pay from beyond the arc once the zone collapses (38.6 percent from 3-point range -13th in the country).
Cuse is not known for its long-range threats and while Buddy Boeheim’s hot hand (6 for 13 on 3’s vs. NC State) sparked memories of Eric Devendorf for Orange faithful, Virginia’s passive pace and perimeter defense make it very hard for opponents to get into a rhythm.
PREDICTION: Virginia -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Syracuse did benefit from some of NC State’s miscues in Round 2 but played solid defense overall, forcing 12 turnovers and blocking six shots while sending the Wolfpack to the foul line just nine times. The Orange have checked their last three opponents to 36.2 percent shooting, staying below the total in the two final games of the regular season.
The Cavaliers’ trademark pace always makes the Under a live bet. Virginia averages 20.3 seconds per offensive possession – second-most in the land – and runs the slowest scoring pace in the county, ranked 357th in KenPom.com’s adjusted tempo metric.
The 81 points the Cavs scored in the previous meeting with the Orange was their third-highest point total of the season, which was highlighted by 14 made 3-pointers. Virginia has averaged only six made triples over its last three games and I don’t see a repeat of that long-range barrage in Greensboro, with UVA hitting at only 29 percent in that three-game stretch.
PREDICTION: Under 133 (-110)
Syracuse vs Virginia betting card
- Virginia -5.5 (-110)
- Under 133 (-110)
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