The No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks welcome the Texas Tech Raiders to Allen Fieldhouse in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.
Bill Self's Jayhawks are in first place in the Big 12 standings and look to repeat as national champs. Although the Red Raiders are second-last in the conference, they have played much better recently and are still on the NCAA Tournament bubble, although a defeat today could seal their fate.
Betting lines opened with the Jayhawks as 10-point favorites before shortening to -9. Here is my best free Texas Tech vs. Kansas college basketball picks and predictions for February 28.
Texas Tech vs Kansas best odds
Texas Tech vs Kansas picks and predictions
This line factors in how Texas Tech has been performing all season but with the Red Raiders looking red-hot lately, it might be wise to take their early season performances with a grain of salt.
They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games and while they are coming off a defeat to TCU, they lost by just a single point. That recent stretch included a pair of road wins against Oklahoma and West Virginia as well as victories against Top-12 opponents in Texas and Kansas State.
A big reason for Texas Tech's improved play has been the presence of center Fardaws Aimaq who is finally healthy and has averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds per game in his last four contests.
With Aimaq and forward Kevin Obanor (14.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), the Red Raiders will have a size advantage on the Jayhawks which will allow them to clog the paint on defense and get easier looks closer to the rim on offense.
Although the Jayhawks continue to pile up the wins, they are coming off a close 76-74 home victory against the Mountaineers and have now gone just 2-5 ATS this season when they are installed as more than 7-point faves. It doesn't help that the Jayhawks' best player, Jalen Wilson, has gone ice-cold lately and is averaging just 12.2 ppg on 37% shooting over his last six games.
With the Red Raiders likely eliminated from March Madness if they lose today, expect them to fight hard and keep things close.
My best bet: Texas Tech +9 (-110 at bet365)
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Texas Tech vs Kansas spread analysis
After beginning conference play with eight straight defeats, the Red Raiders have turned things around. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last six games and most recently lost an 83-82 heartbreaker to TCU.
Now they head to Lawrence, where the Jayhawks have gone 14-1 this season with an average scoring margin of +11.4 ppg. Bill Self's squad is once again looking like a title contender and is atop the Big 12 with a 12-5 record.
The Jayhawks are on a six-game winning streak where they have gone 5-1 ATS.
The Jayhawks have a versatile and well-balanced team that plays well on both ends of the floor. The Jayhawks are one of just four teams in the country that are in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (20th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (ninth) according to KenPom.
Despite his recent struggles, Wilson still leads the Big 12 in scoring with 19.6 points per game while adding 8.4 rebounds per game. Three other Jayhawks are averaging double-digits in points while point Dajuan Harris dishes out 6.3 assists and has 2.0 steals per game.
Obanor leads Texas Tech in scoring while guard De'Vion Harmon adds 13.7 ppg along with a team-high 3.6 apg and 1.7 spg. The Red Raiders are 61st in the country in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. That said, those ratings are deflated due to their early-season struggles.
The Red Raiders could dominate on the glass, since they have a 59.1% rebound rate in their last four games while the smaller Jayhawks have a 50% rebound rate throughout conference play. However, Texas Tech ranks just 292nd in turnover rate and will need to do a better job of taking care of the ball against a Jayhawks backcourt that loves to pressure.
Texas Tech vs Kansas Over/Under analysis
When these teams squared off in Lubbock on Jan. 3 the Jayhawks edged the Red Raiders 75-72. That game soared above the O/U of 141.5 but the total has been moved to 147 for the rematch.
A big reason why the Red Raiders failed to live up to their typical high expectations earlier this season was their massive regression on defense. They were second in the country in defensive efficiency last season (87.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) but are just 74th this year (96.4).
They are also eighth in the conference in scoring defense with 73.5 ppg allowed to Big 12 foes. That's bad news against an athletic Kansas team that likes to push the tempo on offense and averages 79.6 ppg at home.
That said, the Red Raiders have been scoring at a much higher clip in recent weeks. They are averaging 75.8 ppg in their last five contests after putting up just 65.4 ppg in their first 11 conference games.
Texas Tech vs Kansas betting trend to know
In Texas Tech's last five games, the Over has gone 4-0-1 while the Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Kansas.
Texas Tech vs Kansas game info
| Location: | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
