The No. 25-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the Texas Longhorns to Humphrey Coliseum in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.
The Longhorns have been getting torched over the last month, which is why my Texas vs. Mississippi State predictions are betting on a big game from the Bulldogs' best offensive player. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC clash on March 4.
Texas vs Mississippi State prediction
My best bet
Josh Hubbard Over 18.5 points (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is spearheaded by point guard Josh Hubbard, who leads the team with 18.4 points and 3.3. assists per game. Hubbard balled out as a freshman last year, averaging 17.1 ppg despite starting just 16 of 35 games.
He started off this season with some poor shooting performances but has hit his stride lately. He's coming off a 30-point performance in a win against LSU and has dropped more than 18.5 points in seven of his last nine games.
The Texas Longhorns are 1-6 straight up and 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games. The major reason they've been struggling is poor defensive play, with the Longhorns surrendering 85.4 ppg over that seven-game stretch.
Over the last month, the Longhorns have been allowing opponents to shoot 40.3% from long range. That's bad news against Hubbard, who is knocking down 3.5 threes per game at home at a 39.1% clip.
Texas is also 15th in the conference in opponent free-throw rate during SEC play, while Hubbard is averaging 7.8 free throw attempts per game over his last four contests.
Hubbard has also been significantly more efficient at home, where he shoots 44.9% from the floor and 39.1% from deep. Bet on him to light up a Texas side that ranks 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC in adjusted defense during conference play.
Texas vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Josh Hubbard Over 18.5 points
Tre Johnson 20+ points
Mississippi State ML
The Longhorns also have a star in their backcourt with freshman shooting guard Tre Johnson pacing the school with 20.6 ppg on 45/39/88 shooting splits
Johnson is 14th among all high-major players in threes made per game (2.6) while State has struggled to defend the arc. The Bulldogs are 313th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (36.2%) with that number surging to 38.3% since the start of February.
Johnson is coming off a quiet night against Georgia where he finished with just 12 points on seven field goal attempts. However, he had dropped at least 24 points in five of his previous six games. He had also taken more than 20 field goal attempts in his previous three contests, so expect more shots and points from him tonight.
After a sizzling start to the season, the Bulldogs have gone a middling 8-8 in conference play. That said, seven of those eight defeats have come against ranked opponents, with a close road loss to Oklahoma the only exception.
I'm not confident in them covering the spread but they should be able to beat a struggling Longhorns squad that has dropped five of its last six contests on the road.
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Texas vs Mississippi State odds
Texas vs Mississippi State live odds
Texas vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: Texas +240 | Mississippi State -300
- Moneyline: Texas +7 | Mississippi State -7
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Longhorns are 8-0 to the Over in their last eight games while the Bulldogs are 7-2 O/U in their previous nine. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch Texas vs Mississippi State
| Location | Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Texas vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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