Texas vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Horned Frogs Grab Win At Home

The college basketball betting board for Wednesday is headlined by a clash between the No. 9 Texas Longhorns and the No. 22 TCU Horned Frogs.

This should be an exciting matchup between a pair of ranked Big 12 schools that had a thrilling showdown in Austin earlier this year. Oddsmakers are expecting another close game with the Horned Frogs installed as 2.5-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 149.5.

Here are my best free Texas vs. TCU college basketball picks and predictions for March 1. 

Texas vs TCU best odds

Texas vs TCU picks and predictions

Texas had to climb back from a 13-point halftime deficit to win 79-75 in Austin when these teams previously clashed in January. The Horned Frogs will be heavily motivated by allowing that game to slip through their fingers and will be in a good position to exact revenge at home.

As impressive as the Longhorns have looked this season they have struggled on the road in recent contests. They are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five contests in hostile territory with all of those defeats coming by at least seven points. 

In their last game, they jumped out to an 18-4 lead in Waco against Baylor and then fell apart with sloppy play on offense and poor effort on the boards that led to an 81-72 loss. 

TCU is just 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven games, including a pair of losses at home. However, that includes a stretch where it lost four in a row and averaged just 65.3 points per game with its best player Mike Miles sidelined by a knee injury.

With Miles (18.0 ppg on 51.4 FG%) back in the lineup and cooking, the Longhorns will have a tough time matching up with TCU's backcourt. Lay the points with the home side.

My best bet: TCU -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Texas vs TCU spread analysis

It's been an impressive year for the Longhorns who dismissed head coach Chris Beard, but haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry took over in December. They are second in the Big 12 with an 11-5 record and have gone 10-7 against Quadrant 1 opponents this season. 

The Horned Frogs are also putting together a strong season, although they have a less impressive 8-8 record in conference play while going 6-9 vs. Quad 1 opponents. The Big 12 has been a dogfight this season and wins haven't come easy with TCU barely knocking off a surging Texas Tech team on the road in its most recent contest.

Miles scored 24 points against the Red Raiders and looked to be at full strength for the first time since returning to the lineup on Feb. 18.

The Frogs struggled when Miles was injured, and center Eddie Lampkin Jr. (6.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) has also missed several games over the last month and is questionable for tonight. With Miles back in the lineup, this is a finely-tuned TCU offense that also features Emmanuel Miller (12.7 ppg, 43.9 3PT%) and Damion Baugh (12.6 ppg, 6.0 apg).

The Horned Frogs have also played well in their own end and are 20th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

Texas is 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking 15th on offense. Point guard Marcus Carr leads the offense with 16.8 ppg and 4.1 apg with three other players averaging double digits in points.

Texas vs TCU Over/Under analysis

These teams combined for 154 points in their previous meeting this season. Both teams shot poorly from deep but were very effective inside the arc where they combined to go 53-for-94 (56.4%). 

That will likely be repeated today since both teams are so good at generating points close to the rim. The Longhorns are 29th in the country, shooting 54.5% from inside the arc, while the Horned Frogs have a 53.6 2-point percentage despite missing Miles for eight games this season. 

They've averaged 77.8 ppg this season with Miles in the lineup, with that number sitting at 77.0 ppg in 11 conference games. Although they are awful from long range (29.1 3PT%) they also rarely settle for shots from deep and do an excellent job on the offensive glass. 

Meanwhile, the Longhorns are 20th in the country in scoring with 79.2 ppg and second in the Big 12 with 76.3 ppg in conference play. 

One area where Texas and TCU have excelled on defense is when it comes to forcing turnovers, with both teams in the Top 25 of the country in opponent turnover rate. However, their tendency to push the tempo after forcing turnovers typically leads to quick buckets in transition. 

Texas vs TCU betting trend to know

The Over is 14-6-1 in the Longhorns' last 21 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. TCU.

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