Fans of high-level college basketball get what they wished for in the Big West Championship: a matchup between the two titans in the championship game, the UC Irvine Anteaters (28-5) and the UC San Diego Tritons (29-4).
It’s a remarkable story for UC San Diego, reaching the conference championship in the first year in which they’re eligible for the postseason.
I’m backing the Under with my best bet, as both teams have stout defenses.
Read on for my full predictions and college basketball picks for UC Irvine vs. UC San Diego on Saturday, March 15.
Who will win UC Irvine vs UC San Diego?
UC San Diego will finish its remarkable season with a deserved Big West Championship. The Tritons were dominant in league play (18-2) and have won 14 consecutive games, including an 85-67 victory over UC Irvine in early February.
Eric Olen’s squad is an analytics darling and ranks 62 spots higher than UC Irvine in BartTorvik since February 1.
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego prediction
My best bet: Under 135.5 (-115 at bet365)
The Big West Championship is a fascinating matchup between two of the country’s better mid-major teams. Both stand a shot at receiving an at-large bid if they come away unsuccessful in tonight’s championship game, with the UC San Diego Tritons being the more likely possibility.
Both teams have been able to hang their hats on a solid foundation of stingy defense. The Tritons rank 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), while the UC Irvine Anteaters are 14 spots ahead at 17th.
The first meeting put their respective defensive masteries on display — the Anteaters captured a 60-52 road victory on January 11, going Under the total of 139.5 with several touchdowns to spare.
A rematch on February 8 had a different result as the Tritons won 85-67 on the road, easily exceeding the 139.5 total.
A repeat of the second performance is highly unlikely. UCSD scorched the nets from downtown, finishing a ridiculous 16-for-31 from 3-point range. The Tritons are a great 3-point shooting team (36.5%), but those are outlier numbers in peak performance.
We shouldn’t expect the same in a tense championship environment at Lee’s Family Forum.
UCSD likes to slow the game to a crawl, ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo since February 1. Olen’s squad will be at a severe disadvantage on the boards — they rank 254th in rebounding percentage (48.6%) compared to 34th for Irvine (53.4%).
Even if the efficiency is there for the Tritons, the volume (number of possessions) likely won’t allow for an abundance of points on the scoreboard due to their slow pace and rebounding disadvantage.
They also don’t draw many fouls (176th in free-throw attempts per game with 19.3), so “free points” can’t be taken for granted.
On the flip side, Irvine’s offense is by far the lowest-rated unit on the court, ranking 152nd in adjusted efficiency.
The Anteaters excel when they hit 3s (35.5%) and get to the line (80.2% on free throws), but the Tritons play good perimeter defense (53rd in 3-point defense) and rarely foul (29th-least free throws allowed per game).
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego same-game parlay (SGP)
UC Irvine +5.5
Under 135.5
Betting against UCSD has been a fool’s proposition this season, as the Tritons are 24-7 ATS. So why am I doing it on Saturday?
The Anteaters have been nearly as profitable at 21-11 ATS. They have the better season-long defensive numbers and hold a significant edge on the boards — a recipe for an appealing underdog.
They’re the second-best free-throw shooting team in the country and wall off the rim defensively, ranking fifth in near-proximity defense (Haslametrics).
That makes them a fascinating team from an analytics perspective, and it’s a big reason why they’ve covered so many games this season.
They played great against UCSD in the regular season, winning one game and losing the other when the Tritons got hot from downtown.
Olen’s squad might need to get hot from 3-point range again if Irvine can shut down the paint per usual led by seven-footer Bent Leuchten.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UC Irvine vs UC San Diego odds
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego live odds
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego opening odds
- Spread: UC Irvine +6.5 (-115) | UC San Diego -6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: UC Irvine (+210) | UC San Diego (-275)
- Over/Under: Over 134.5 (-110) | Under 134.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego betting trend to know
UC San Diego is 2-7 O/U in its last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UC Irvine vs. UC San Diego.
How to watch UC Irvine vs UC San Diego
| Location | Lee's Family Forum, Henderson, NV |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
UC Irvine vs UC San Diego key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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