UCLA vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Comes First in Philly

Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins head to the Wells Fargo Center for a showdown with the Villanova Wildcats tonight. 

Looking at college basketball odds, Villanova is -4 while the total is set at 127.5. 

I have my eyes set on the total in a game that projects to be played at a very slow tempo and features two offenses that have trouble locating the bottom of the bucket.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the UCLA Bruins vs. the Villanova Wildcats on Saturday, December 9.

UCLA vs Villanova best odds

UCLA vs Villanova picks and predictions

The UCLA Bruins enter well-rested, having not played since November 30 against UC Riverside in a game that was won at the final buzzer. They’ve lost to the two difficult opponents on their schedule (Marquette and Gonzaga, albeit by just six combined points) while going undefeated in the games they should’ve won, and did. 

Mick Cronin’s squad has four players averaging double figures: freshman guard Sebastian Mack (14.7), star big man Adem Bona (13.4), Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic (11.1), and buzzer-beating hero Dylan Andrews (10.2). 

The Villanova Wildcats were off to a good start with six wins in their first seven games including victories against Maryland, Texas Tech, UNC, and Memphis. Things have since fallen apart with three straight losses, including one to Drexel. 

Big man Eric Dixon leads the way with 14.4 ppg while guard Justin Moore is right behind with 13.3. The tertiary options have struggled a bit outside of Richmond transfer Tyler Burton (9 ppg, 7.4 rpg) as the Wildcats are shooting just 41% from the floor as a team. 

Looking at KenPom, Villanova is in the Top 40 at 32nd overall while UCLA is just outside at 41st. The Wildcats have shown more balance (34th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency) while the Bruins shine on the defensive end (22nd) but struggle offensively (80th).

The Bruins will be a bit shorthanded as Berke Buyuktuncel is out while Mack is considered questionable with a toe injury. For a team that’s struggled with shot creation, the health of both players is paramount as they excel at offensive ingenuity. 

I struggle to see where the points are going to come from in this matchup. This Bruins roster has some gaping holes on offense, so it’s no surprise that they make just 4.3 3-pointers per game (353rd nationally) while operating at a snail’s pace, ranking 341st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

Villanova isn’t far ahead at 328th in adjusted tempo. The Wildcats attempt a ton of threes (29.2 per game, 14th nationally) but convert them at just 32.2%. Usually, it’s best to specialize in things you’re good at, but head coach Kyle Neptune hasn’t gotten the memo.

On the other side of things, Cronin has opted to limit the minutes of his fancy European imports in favor of players he trusts to do what he wants, like play defense and rebound. The Bruins are allowing opponents to shoot just 30.6% from beyond the arc and allow the fewest shots per game (25.4) from inside of it. 

Cronin is one of the greatest coaches in the country and is attempting to turn every game into a rock fight with this roster that hasn’t fully come together yet. Neptune’s job security is a hot topic for a reason and his team will need to finally hit some shots from behind the arc at an efficient rate to have a good offensive day. Both teams operate at a slow tempo and I think this one forecasts as an Under. 

My best bet: Under 128 (-110 at BetRivers)

UCLA vs Villanova same-game parlay

Under 127

Adem Bona Over 11.5 points

Adem Bona Over 5.5 rebounds

+500 at DraftKings

My personal nickname of choice for Nigerian star Adem Bona is Adem Bona-fide Truth. I don’t see how you can’t fall in love with his game if you’ve ever given him an extended viewing. 

The simple take here is that if he stays out of foul trouble, he should hit the Over on both of these lines. He’s averaging 21.6 points and 9.9 rebounds per 40 minutes as the focal point on both ends of the court, and he leads the team with a 27.7% usage rate. 

He’s fallen short of these totals only in games where he’s been in foul trouble or that have resulted in blowouts, and it’s not like you can project either of those outcomes against Villanova with much certainty. The Wildcats live behind the arc and attempt threes at an alarming rate, so Bona can avoid fouls more easily, and the point spread is within two possessions so a blowout isn’t imminent. 

Bona is one of the few players Cronin knows he can trust at this point for a roster still in flux, and he’ll be heavily relied upon if the Bruins are to compete on the road in a difficult environment. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UCLA vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis

Both teams have been .500 against the spread as UCLA is 3-3 while Villanova is 5-5 ATS. The Bruins have been underdogs twice this season and covered the spread both times (+4.5 against Gonzaga, +6 against Marquette). 

It’s hard for me to pick a side with Mack’s status still in question. If he’s out, the Under looks like a better play while I’d be uncertain about a side. If he plays, which I’d expect, I have to lean toward UCLA given the coaching discrepancy. 

Sure, the Bruins don’t have much of an offense. Sure, some of the best offensive players on the team aren’t playing meaningful minutes at current. Sure, this team lost a ton of talent and experience from a year ago. 

What’s also true is that Cronin is a basketball coaching guru while Neptune is barely over .500 as the head basketball coach of a proud program like Villanova. These two are not the same. 

The Wildcats may steal one at home in an advantageous spot, and now is the time to play the Bruins as this team is still finding its sea legs and will improve as the season goes along but is mightly vulnerable at present. Still, over the long run, you won’t find me siding with the team at such a monstrous coaching disadvantage, so it’s Bruins or pass for this bettor. 

UCLA vs Villanova betting trend to know

UCLA IS 1-5 O/U this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Villanova.

UCLA vs Villanova game info

UCLA vs Villanova key injuries

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