UMBC vs Vermont Odds, Picks and Predictions: Celebrations Cut Short

Welcome to legalized sports betting in Vermont!

We’re excited to have you here, and we have a terrific America East Conference matchup when the Vermont Catamounts welcome the UMBC Retrievers to Patrick Gymnasium.

UMBC enters this matchup hoping to end a six-game losing skid, while host Vermont is looking to build on a two-game winning streak and keep pace with the AEC leaderboard.

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview UMBC vs Vermont on Thursday, January 11.

UMBC vs Vermont best odds

UMBC vs Vermont picks and predictions

Thursday’s matchup will be a fun contrast in styles, and it’s these types of games where the little things matter.

UMBC is one of the fastest tempo-driven teams nationally, scoring an average of 78.9 points but surrendering 83.8 per tilt. They shoot above average from inside and outside the arc but are terrible shooters from the charity stripe and arguably the country's worst defensive program.

Vermont is the defending AEC Champ, is off to a 1-0 start to conference play, and boasts the conference's best defense. They surrender 64.5 points per game and force 11.4 turnovers per tilt.  The Catamounts play above-average defense inside the arc, below-average defense from beyond the arc with a mediocre offense that could take a huge hit if guard Shamir Bogues can’t dress Thursday.

Bogues is the Catamounts' third-leading scorer while leading Vermont in caroms (5.1) and steals (2.0). Bogues played 12 minutes against Virginia Tech before leaving the game with an injury, causing him to miss three tilts. He returned to the lineup last Saturday but played 10 minutes before exiting that game and didn’t return. No word on his status, but a severely limited Bogues' is a big loss on both ends of the floor for Vermont.

That means we should expect the Catamounts to focus on their conference-leading defense and the challenge of chasing the Retrievers snipers from downtown off the three-point line.

UMBC can shoot from long range. When they get hot, they can quiet a hostile environment like the one they’ll face Thursday. They knock down 35% from beyond the arc in the visitors' jersey and face a Vermont defense, allowing 43% from three-point land over their last three but 34% at “The Patrick.”

The trouble with UMBC is knocking down threes is all that they do really well, and that is why my best bet will be Under.

The Vermont defense is stout. Bogues is a big part of that. He leads the team in steals, but not having him at full strength will hurt Vermont more offensively than defensively. They’ll give up the triples, but they’ll also get some turnovers against a Retrievers offense, committing 14.5 turnovers per game.

Finally, Vermont plays snail-pace basketball, and along with their stout defense, should be enough to slow down the high-scoring but highly turnover-prone Retrievers. The Catamounts' offense should get a boost playing against the shaky UMBC defense, but it's not enough without Bogues in the lineup to keep the game from ending Under the total.

My best bet: Under 153.5 (-113 at FanDuel)

UMBC vs Vermont same-game parlay

Under 153.5

UMBC +16.5

+248 at FanDuel

The Under is my best bet, and I like this same-game parlay card that correlates well with the Under 153.5.

Vermont doesn’t cover the spread because they’ve had difficulty scoring the basketball. Senior point guard Aaron Deloney has struggled to find his shot from anywhere, and he was projected to be an all-conference performer. That and Vermont plays shaky three-point defense missing a key scorer. UMBC could get hot from downtown and could realistically keep this game much closer than the FanDuel number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UMBC vs Vermont spread and Over/Under analysis

UMBC opened as a +16.5 away underdog, and that number seems to be high, considering Vermont is 0-5-0 ATS at Patrick Gymnasium and, without Bogues in the lineup, may not have the offensive firepower to chase the Retrievers from the Catamounts barn.

It will be especially difficult for Vermont to cover the big number if UMBC knocks down 35% or better from downtown. The retrievers like to play fast, loose, and shoot plenty of triples. They also make 36.7% of their attempts from downtown on the season and are 4-4-0 ATS as the away team.

Vermont is 1-3-0 ATS without Bogues in the lineup. He missed three games because of this injury and played 10 minutes in their home victory over Maine. There is no word yet on his status, but he might sit this one out with the Catamounts so heavily favored and them having a real shot at winning the conference and a potential NCAA tourney bid. Even if he does play, he won’t be at full strength, and that’s an issue for Vermont on both ends of the floor.  

That’s why I took the points on the same-game parlay but chose the Under as the best bet. Vermont could cover the spread with Bogues fully healthy, and with his status up in the air and likely not known until tip-off, it’s a gamble I didn’t want to make as my best bet.

The Retrievers are +16.5 straight across the Vermont betting landscape, and if I have a lean, I will play UMBC +17 or higher. The Catamounts are 0-5-0 ATS at home and facing a Retrievers program with a 4-4-0 ATS record as the away team. 

UMBC vs Vermont betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in Vermont’s last eight home games, and the Catamounts have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UMBC vs. Vermont.

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