UNLV vs San Diego State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Mountain West Conference play is not going to be for the faint of heart this season. With three different teams at 13-1 and two more at 12-2, something will have to give during what will be a war of attrition on one of the country’s most entertaining leagues.

One of those 12-2 teams is the defending conference champion San Diego State Aztecs, who began conference play with a 27-point throttling of Fresno State. Next up is a home matchup at Viejas Arena against the UNLV Rebels.

Taking a look at college basketball odds, the Aztecs are a 9.5-point favorite while the total resides at 140. It’s the total I’m targeting with Saturday’s best bet as the Aztecs have trended one way — and one way only — on totals during conference play since last year.

Read on for my free college basketball picks for UNLV vs. San Diego State on Saturday, January 6.

UNLV vs San Diego State best odds

UNLV vs San Diego State picks and predictions

All eyes are on Brian Dutcher’s San Diego State Aztecs to see how they follow up last year’s appearance in the National Championship Game. Checking into this contest with a 12-2 record and a ranking of 21st overall on KenPom, it’s evident that this is still a team to fear.

Forward Jaedon LeDee has been the clear standout, averaging 21.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game as one of the sport’s most dominant big men and imposing physical presences. 

SDSU made a statement in its Mountain West opener, dominating Fresno State 74-47 at Viejas Arena. The injury bug popped in that contest, however, as guards Reese Waters and Miles Byrd both departed with lower right leg injuries in the first half and did not return. 

Waters’ status in particular is of import considering he dropped 22 points in the Aztecs’ upset over Gonzaga and is averaging a career-best 13.3 points per game to rank second on his team. He’s considered a game-time decision. Byrd would be one logical fill-in for Waters but is considered unlikely to play as he deals with turf toe. 

Conference opponent No. 2 is the visiting UNLV Rebels, who are 7-5 this year and 76-44 under head coach Kevin Kruger. Three players average double figures, but perhaps none has been as notable as freshman left-handed guard DJ Thomas, a blue-chip recruit averaging 12.5 points and 6.3 assists per game. 

The Rebels enter this contest after three straight wins and four victories in their last five, with the lone defeat a respectable one in overtime against Saint Mary’s. Kruger’s squad checks in at 100th overall in KenPom, notably playing better on the offensive end (67th in adjusted efficiency) than the defensive end (159th). 

This is the beginning of a difficult stretch in the gauntlet that is the Mountain West Conference. Next up they host both New Mexico (12-2) and Utah State (13-1), followed by away games at Boise State (9-4) and Colorado State (13-1). The combined record of their next five opponents, including the Aztecs, is a remarkable 56-10 (84.8%). 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kruger’s team surprises some teams during conference play — this roster has a good mix of talent and experience with five fifth-year seniors. Kruger hit the portal hard and came away with a reshaped and revamped roster. That being said, this is a tough ask on Saturday against the Aztecs. 

The Rebels like to get downhill and attack the basket offensively, attempting just 22.8 threes per game while ranking 63rd in near-proximity attempt rate, per Haslametrics. It’ll be hard to find these looks consistently against an SDSU defense that walls off the paint, allowing just 30.6% of opponent field goal attempts to come at the rim (337th nationally, per Hoop-Math). 

Both teams like to play at a leisurely pace — UNLV ranks just 288th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metrics while SDSU checks in at 237th. I expect a low-scoring, low-possession game as the Aztecs are coming off a terrific defensive game where they held Fresno State to just 35% from the floor, and they should become only better and better on that side of the ball as the year goes on considering Dutcher and this program’s history. 

Unders have been a good way to play SDSU during conference play as Dutcher’s side has gone below the total in nine straight Mountain West games dating back to last season.

While UNLV’s season-long numbers aren’t great defensively, the Rebels have shown signs of improvement lately. None of their last five opponents have topped 70 points and that includes notable names like Creighton and Saint Mary’s.

Kruger made a note of improving his team’s size and defense in the offseason, and I expect his team to attempt to show signs of improvement as the year goes along.

My best bet: Under 140 (-110 at bet365)

UNLV vs San Diego State same-game parlay

Under 140

Luis Rodriguez Under 11.5 points

Jaedon LeDee Over 18.5 points

+525 at DraftKings

This is a three-leg SGP featuring my best bet on the full-game Under combined with two player props, one for each team.

The first will be UNLV wing Luis Rodriguez to finish below his points prop of 11.5. I don’t love this matchup for Rodriguez in that he’s a speed demon who gets a lot of steals (2.1 per game) and thrives in transition. Breakaways will be tough to find against an SDSU team that allows just 21% of opponent shots to come in transition (288th), per Hoop-Math. 

Rodriguez thrives when he can get a full head of steam and attack the basket, shooting a robust 74.4% at the rim. We’ve already discussed how SDSU’s defensive philosophy protects against open lanes to the basket, so those looks will be hard to come by. For all of his strengths, creating looks in the half-court isn't one of them for Rodriguez, who visibly struggles with his handle. 

The second player prop will be on star SDSU forward Jaedon LeDee to exceed his points total of 18.5. I simply think this is too low for one of the nation’s most prolific scorers who's dominated a multitude of different stylistic matchups and has scored 19+ points in nine of his 13 appearances. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UNLV vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been much line movement as of late Friday night with SDSU listed at either -9.5 or -10 depending on where you look. At least one location opened -11 before quickly moving to -10 if that’s any indication of future movement. 

Be sure to shop around using our college basketball odds tool to grab the best price before opening tip and use our college basketball line movement tool to track the market. 

Considering SDSU’s injury situation with Waters looking 50/50 at best and Byrd looking doubtful, it’d be hard for me to lay points in this spot. I think UNLV might be underrated in this spot after getting off to a slow start (3-4 in its first seven games) before coming to life (4-1 in its last five). 

Pacific (and Oklahoma State before that) transfer Keylan Boone has appeared in just five games since being cleared but has been a huge factor, averaging 9.6 points, 8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, and 1.4 blocks per game. He provides the much-needed size this team lacked a year ago. 

Thomas has continued to get more comfortable as he plays through the freshman growing pains and is one of the best first-year players in the nation. He’s gelled well with fellow diminutive guard Jackie Johnson III as both are sharpshooters who keep defenses honest.

I lean toward taking UNLV plus the points considering the above reasons and the fact this is a potential sell-high spot on SDSU after it crushed both Gonzaga and Fresno State. I’m not exactly in a hurry to fade this program, however, as the Aztecs are 46-5 across their last 51 conference games.

UNLV vs San Diego State betting trend to know

SDSU has cashed the Under in nine straight conference games dating back to last season. Find more college basketball betting trends for UNLV vs. San Diego State.

UNLV vs San Diego State game info

UNLV vs San Diego State key injuries

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