USC vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: The Desert Does Wonders for Wildcats

It’s been a rough season for the USC Trojans, who have dropped four of its last six games. Meanwhile, the Arizona Wildcats have struggled to find consistency as they haven’t won more than two straight games since December 9. Most recently, a trip to Pullman went sour in a 73-70 defeat at the hands of Washington State.

Looking at college basketball odds, the Wildcats are 19-point favorites while the total has been set at 159.

This program has typically responded very well after a loss under Lloyd’s leadership — will that be the case again tonight? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the USC Trojans vs. the Arizona Wildcats on Wednesday, January 17.

USC vs Arizona best odds

USC vs Arizona picks and predictions

Andy Enfield has led the USC Trojans to the NCAA Tournament for three straight years, so it's surprising that his team has fallen off a cliff this season, sitting with a losing record in mid-January.

The Trojans have lost two straight, falling 72-64 against Washington State at home and 68-58 at Colorado. Things have fallen apart since a 4-1 start to the year, and the injuries are piling up at the worst time.

Five-star freshman guard Isaiah Collier is out with a hand contusion, vacating 15.4 points and 4.1 assists per game. Center Joshua Morgan has missed two straight games with a respiratory illness, and leading scorer Boogie Ellis (18.7 ppg) missed the game against the Buffaloes with a hamstring injury. Morgan and Ellis are both considered questionable tonight vs. the Arizona Wildcats.

A lack of continuity in the rotation due to a rash of injuries has resulted in a disjointed team that ranks 73rd overall in KenPom — 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. That clashes greatly with tonight's opponent, who checks in third overall in KenPom and fourth on both ends of the court.

Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats have struggled with consistency but are still among the elite teams in the country. Any time you rank Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, you’re a threat to win it all — the rest is about ironing out the kinks and gelling at the right time.

Lloyd wasn’t happy with his team’s most recent performance, a 73-70 loss at Washington State.

“What I see is an average basketball team, okay, that has these really high moments and then they relax. That’s what I see. So we got to figure that out as a coaching staff, whether that’s shaking up the lineup. I mean these are all things I got to think about, changing what we do. But everything’s on the table.”

I expect the Wildcats to rise and meet their coach’s challenge. This is a talented team that just had its pride injured a bit by both their opponent and then by their own coach’s remarks.

I like this spot situational spot for Arizona for a few reasons. The Wildcats have typically responded very well after a loss in Lloyd’s tenure, never once losing back-to-back games. They have an average winning margin of 22 points in games following a loss over a decent 14-game sample size. The Wildcats are dominant at home, going 40-2 under Lloyd. They are 12-1 across the last 13 meetings against USC at Tucson.

If Ellis doesn’t play, Arizona arguably has an advantage at all five starting positions, with a better bench, a better coach, and the homecourt advantage. Even if Ellis does play, that’s a lot of ground to cover.

The Wildcats have rolled at the McKale Center, going 8-0 with an average winning margin of 37.1 points. They should roll over a shorthanded, unimpressive Trojans team that is just 1-4 in away games this season. Those losses have come by an average of 12.5 points per game and none were against a team as good as the Wildcats.

My best bet: Arizona -19 (-108 at DraftKings)

USC vs Arizona same-game parlay

Arizona -19

Kylan Boswell 8+ points

Kylan Boswell Over 4.5 assists

33% boost available

+335 +445 at DraftKings

This may seem like a funny time to target Kylan Boswell props. The sophomore is coming off a stinker of a game in which he went scoreless across 25 minutes against Washington State, missing all five of his field-goal attempts and both of his free throws while failing to contribute a single rebound or assist. It’d almost be as if he didn’t exist — that is, if he didn’t commit two personal fouls, turn the ball over once, and get called out by his coach after the game.

“ . . . Kylan just didn’t have that look tonight, and he’s got to figure that out. Guy was a heck of a player. I don’t care how old he is, he’s good enough to play well on the road and he hasn’t. So he needs to figure that out.”

Boswell is a very talented young player and I expect him to meet Lloyd’s benching and criticism with a strong showing against a bad USC defense. I’m taking him to notch at least eight points and five assists.

He’s averaging 10.4 points and has scored at least eight in 12 of 16 games this season, so the expectation is there for him to hit this number. As for the assists, well, Boswell has dropped some of the prettiest dimes I’ve witnessed this season and leads an offense that averages a national-best 91.2 ppg. He’s notched at least five assists in four of his last five games at the McKale Center while averaging 6.2 per game in that span.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USC vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened Arizona -16.5 before blowing out to -19.5 at most locations. There’s still a -19 available as of the time of this writing. Be sure to track all fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager.

Arizona has been a covering machine this season at 12-4 against the spread, which includes a perfect 8-0 ATS record at the McKale Center.

The Wildcats have never lost back-to-back games under Tommy Lloyd and are therefore expected to get back on the wagon in a hurry following Saturday’s letdown on the Palouse.

Similar to the spread, the total has also seen some movement. After opening at 161.5, it’s since dropped to 159 across the board. USC has trended toward the Over lately with its defense falling apart, going 9-3 O/U across its last 12 games.

Recent history suggests that this one could be going over the total as well considering six of the last nine matchups have cashed Over tickets.

It’s a little bit difficult to handicap this game with the statuses of Ellis and Morgan still up in the air, and there likely won’t be further clarification on their respective statuses until closer to tip. I suppose I’d consider their absences a wash when handicapping the total. If both don’t play, Ellis’ absence would hurt USC’s offensive outlook but Morgan’s would damper their defensive outlook.

Arizona should score a lot of points  — it has scored 92 or more points in seven of its eight home games. With a team total of 89.5 at most books, an Over bet looks appealing.

USC vs Arizona betting trend to know

Arizona is 8-0 ATS at home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Arizona.

USC vs Arizona game info

USC vs Arizona key injuries

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