USC vs Arizona Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Collier and Trojans Go to War

The second round of the Pac-12 Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon in Las Vegas as the No. 9 seed USC Trojans face the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats.

Looking at Pac-12 Tournament bracket, the Wildcats are the favorite to cut the nets down in Vegas. That should come as no surprise as Tommy Lloyd’s squad secured the regular season championship and is widely projected as a No. 2 seed for March Madness odds. 

According to conference tournament odds, the Wildcats are 8.5-point favorites, and the total has been set at 157.5.

Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Arizona on Thursday, March 14. Give our March Madness odds coverage for more NCAAB goodness. 

USC vs Arizona best odds

USC vs Arizona picks and predictions

The No. 9 seed USC Trojans advanced to the second round of this tournament with an 80-74 victory over the No. 8 seed Washington Huskies on Wednesday. Their star-studded backcourt came to play — Boogie Ellis led all scorers with 25 points, while Isaiah Collier chipped in 13 points, six rebounds, and seven assists. 

The competition heats up as the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats await in Round 2. Tommy Lloyd’s squad enters this one well-rested after earning a first-round bye. 

These were supposed to be two of the best teams in the conference during the preseason, but only Arizona followed through on that promise. After a troubling start to the season, Any Enfield’s Trojans finally kicked things into gear by winning five of their last six games. 

One of those wins was a convincing 78-65 win at the Galen Center over Arizona in the regular season finale. It was a thorough win for USC, who controlled most areas of the game and was simply the better team that night. 

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Arizona didn’t have a whole lot to play for, considering it had already wrapped up the regular season crown. These teams also played in Tucson on January 17, with the Wildcats grabbing a comfortable 82-67 win in a game that they led from start to finish. 

Arizona features the Pac-12 Player of the Year in Caleb Love, who averages 18.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Four other players average double figures — Oumar Ballo (13.1), Pelle Larsson (13), Keshad Johnson (11.9), and Kylan Boswell (10.2). 

The bookmakers have established Arizona as a sizable favorite in this revenge spot — the Wildcats are as high as -9.5 as of late Wednesday night when lines were released. Rather than go back to the well by riding USC as I have attempted to do for much of its recent hot streak, I’m eyeing the player prop market with my best bet. 

Collier is listed with a point prop of 16.5, which seems about right, considering he averages 16.6 ppg. That being said, Arizona enters this game with fresh legs and will look to push their pace, considering it ranks 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric while averaging 76.9 possessions per game, the fourth-highest mark nationally. 

Collier gets to the rim at will and will be needed if USC hopes to keep its hot streak going. The five-star freshman is going to hear his name called pretty early in the NBA Draft, in all likelihood, and it’ll be well deserved after his strong finish to the season. 

The Wildcats’ defense looks good according to the metrics, but they regularly allow plenty of points and have had difficulty at times containing opposing guards. The pathway is there for yet another successful game for one of the country’s best players. Collier may not have earned the accolades that he may deserve — which is fair, considering he missed three weeks with a broken hand and plays for a disappointing team — but for my money, he’s the best player in the conference not named N’Faly Dante. 

Give me Collier to exceed 16.5 points in this second-round game. 

My best bet: Isaiah Collier Over 16.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

USC vs Arizona same-game parlay

Isaiah Collier Over 16.5 points 

USC +9 

Kylan Boswell 12+ points 

+900 at DraftKings

If Collier has a big game, it’s difficult to see USC getting totally blown out. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country (sixth in KenPom), so of course, it’s possible, but nothing about the Trojans’ recent performance indicates they’re a rollover team. 

Per Barttovik, USC has been the 21st-ranked team since February 15. That’s behind Arizona at seventh, but not by enough that these teams currently seem to be in different stratospheres. Since that arbitrary start date, Troy has covered the spread in six of their eight games. 

The third leg makes this SGP a juicy one and I don’t think it’s as much of a longshot as the odds seem to indicate. Kylan Boswell has been an up-and-down player, and the press has been very negative about him this season. Sometimes that’s been deserved, but sometimes it’s just piling onto a narrative, and it creates a situation where we get some value on a talented player. 

It’s well known that USC struggles to defend the arc, ranking 331st in 3-point defense (36.1%) and 313th in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.5). Boswell is a sniper who hits two threes a game at 40.4%, and it wouldn’t be a bit surprising if he even narrowly exceeds his average of 10.2 ppg.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USC vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

USC has opened as a dog between +8.5 and +9.5 depending where you look. Be sure to track any fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool. 

The Trojans have been slightly profitable in this series lately, going 6-4 ATS across the last 10 matchups. Enfield may not be able to lead his team back to the NCAA Tournament this year — that is, unless the Trojans pull off the improbable and cut down the nets in Vegas — but it’s refreshing to know that he’s had postseason success in the past. 

The total has opened from between 156.5 and 157.5, so be sure to shop around. 

Both of the regular season games went Under the total; the first matchup had a total of 158.5 while the second was set at 163. I’d be inclined to target the Under again if playing the total considering the way these defenses profile against the opposing offenses. 

USC’s offense works best when Collier can freely attack the rim. While he should have plenty of opportunities (hello, plentiful possessions and a dominant ball handler), Arizona does defend the paint well with Ballo and company and it won’t be an all-day layup party for the Trojans. 

On the flip side, USC also defends the paint well and that’s a big boost against a Wildcats team that typically wins with its athleticism. Both teams rank top-16 in Haslametric’s near-proximity field goal defense against the average opponent. 

USC vs Arizona betting trend to know

Each of Arizona’s last eight opponents not named Arizona State has had at least one player score at least 17 points against the Wildcats. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Arizona.

USC vs Arizona game info

USC vs Arizona key injuries

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