Utah vs Indiana State Predictions, NIT Semifinals Picks, and Odds for Tuesday's Matchup

The Final Four of the NIT odds is set in Indianapolis as the Utah Utes square off against the Indiana State Sycamores. 

Utah has made quick work of its opponents, winning its first three games of the tournament by an average margin of 12.7 points. Indiana State was snubbed from the Big Dance but has shown its mettle with wins over SMU, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. 

Looking at the college basketball odds, the Sycamores are 3.5-point favorites while the total resides at 163.5. 

I’m eyeing the player prop market with tonight’s best bet as bookmakers are not accurately adjusting for the rule changes in the NIT in which the lane has been widened from 12 feet to 16 feet.

Check out my March Madness picks for Utah vs. Indiana State on Tuesday, April 2.

Utah vs Indiana State best odds

Utah vs Indiana State picks and predictions

Craig Smith’s Utah Utes missed the NCAA Tournament after dropping eight of their final 12 regular-season games. No matter — the Utes have bounced back with three comfortable wins in the NIT and now find themselves in the semifinal. 

Seven-footer Branden Carlson is the star of the show, averaging 17 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. He’s a threat from everywhere on the court and can knock down shots from long range, making 1.8 threes per game on 37.6% shooting while knocking down his free throws at a 71.8% clip. 

Only two other players average double figures in sharpshooter Gabe Madsen (13.8) and do-it-all, lightning-quick point guard Deivon Smith (12.7). Smith is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles and has notched 10+ assists in three straight games. 

Utah checks in at 46th overall in KenPom, ranking 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

The Utes shoot the three ball well (36.3%) but struggle at the stripe (65.2% on free throws, 347th nationally). Defensively, they clean the glass (ninth nationally with 29 rebounds per game) and defend the paint, ranking 13th in near-proximity defense vs. the average opponent per Haslametrics.

Their opponent is the Indiana State Sycamores, who've racked up 31 wins under Josh Schertz, a rising star of a coach. They rank 42nd overall in KenPom — 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency but 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Point forward Robbie Avila does some of everything, averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Four others average double figures — Ryan Conwell (16.6), Isaiah Swope (15.8), Jayson Kent (13.7), and Julian Larry (10.7). 

Their five-out offense is a thing of beauty, leading the nation in 2-point shooting (62.3%), ranking 11th in 3-point shooting (38.3%), and third at the foul stripe (79.7%). 

There’s expected to be a lot of offense in this game between two fast-paced offenses. The Runnin’ Utes earn their monicker by ranking 58th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and the Sycamores are even quicker at 38th. The total has been priced up at 163.5 for good reason, but the player prop market still offers some value. 

They’re experimenting with new rules in the NIT, widening the free throw lane from 12 feet to 16 feet. This opens up the game more and it’s not a coincidence that players like Smith have thrived, putting up obscene assist totals. I see that continuing in this matchup. 

Smith has gone Over this number in 11 of his last 15 appearances but we're still getting plus money. His season-long average of 7.1 assists — which bookmakers use to help set their props — is not an accurate reflection as he had a minor role in the offense to start the year but turned into a usage monster once fellow guard Rollie Worster was lost to injury.

He’s averaging 8.5 assists per game since January 11 so there’s simply no way we should be getting plus money at 7.5. I’ll gladly snap it up in a plus matchup. 

My best bet: Deivon Smith Over 7.5 assists (+108 at Pinnacle)

Utah vs Indiana State same-game parlay

Deivon Smith Over 7.5 assists

Robbie Avila Over 6.5 assists

+950 at DraftKings

These are my two favorite plays in this game and I think there’s value in both. Avila’s assist prop is set at 4.5 and the Over can be had for +105, which makes for a great single bet. You can also use that number in this SGP and come away with +330 odds. 

I’m hitting the alternate assist prop of 6.5 as those juicy +475 odds create a +950 SGP. Simply put, there’s a much higher chance of both players hitting this number than the odds indicate. I'm happy to swing for the fences.

Avila has thrived with the alteration to the lane, averaging 6.7 assists across the first three NIT games. Utah allows 72.4 ppg defensively and Indiana State has one of the best offenses in the nation, so it’s highly likely the Sycamores score a decent amount of points and that Avila is involved in orchestrating a fair amount of these buckets. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Utah vs Indiana State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Indiana State has been a very profitable team to back, going 21-15 ATS.
  
  
• Utah is red hot, going 7-2 ATS across its last nine games.
  
  
• Both teams have trended toward the Over — Utah is 20-16 O/U while Indiana State is 21-15 O/U.

Utah vs Indiana State betting trend to know

Deivon Smith has handed out 8+ assists in 11 of his last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah vs. Indiana State.

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