College Gameday heads to Storrs to see No. 1 Connecticut face off against Villanova in the latest college basketball odds.
After a month of seeming like it could do no wrong, UConn finally faltered. It headed to Omaha on a quest to become the first Big East team ever to have a 15-game winning streak but left with a 19-point loss to Creighton.
Meanwhile, Villanova has had an up-and-down season, but the Wildcats have now played themselves into the bubble with a trio of wins.
What's the best bet for this Big East showdown? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Villanova vs. UConn on Saturday, February 24th.
Villanova vs UConn best odds
Villanova vs UConn picks and predictions
The prevailing narrative in this game is how much of a monster spot it is for the UConn Huskies after falling short to Creighton earlier this week. With all of this in mind, the price has just gotten out of hand at the current number.
And since I have no interest in standing in front of the machine that the Huskies can be, the prop market has made its way into the picture.
The weakest aspect of this Villanova Wildcats defense has easily been their spot-up defense. They've been one of the worst in the Big East in that category, and that'll come back to bite the Wildcats when they go up against shooters like Cam Spencer.
The Huskies guard enters this game with a field goal percentage of just over 46% of the season on set-up sets, and he is averaging 1.2 points per possession when they are run for him.
Although Spencer is coming scoring just six points on 37% shooting in his last outing, he has averaged over 16 points in games following single-digit performances.
Spencer exceeded this number the first time he played Villanova, with 14 points on just 27% shooting from the field. However, the eye test tells about half of those shots were open, and quality looks that you'd expect him to make more often than not.
With that in mind, Spencer is well-suited to have one of his most productive games all year. Back Spencer with seemingly everything pointing in his direction.
My best bet: Cam Spencer Over 13.5 points (-131 at Caesars)
Villanova vs UConn same-game parlay
Cam Spencer Over 13.5 points
TJ Bamba Over 9.5 points
The Achilles' heel of the UConn defense has remained its spot-up guarding. I will use that to my advantage and pair our best bet with another player prop.
This season, TJ Bamba has easily been the best spot-up shooter for this Villanova team. Like our best bet, he'll enter this matchup off a lousy game and aim to redeem himself. I'm expecting the Wildcats guard to repeat his performance from earlier this year when he dropped 15 points on the Huskies.
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Villanova vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis
I don't have any qualms about backing the Huskies here, but you will undoubtedly be paying a situational tax with them coming off a loss.
My projections made this game a flat 10, enough for me to lay off the -11.5-point spread that most oddsmakers are offering. The Huskies have won three straight against Villanova and had prevailed in two straight by double digits before its one-point victory over them earlier this year.
I have no genuine opinion on the total, as my projections have fallen directly in line with the number. Villanova's offense is better than the 65 points it put up on UConn earlier this season, but the situational part of this matchup is heavily tilted in favor of the Huskies.
The Under has been a heavy trend in this series, with three of the last four going in that direction.
Villanova vs UConn betting trend to know
Connecticut has covered the spread in 23 of its last 31 games (+14.5 units, 41% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. UConn.
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Villanova vs UConn game info
| Location: | Harry A. Gampel Pavilion |
| Date: | Saturday, February 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Villanova vs UConn key injuries
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