Despite having a gaudy record, the Virginia Cavaliers know they need to keep winning games to make the NCAA Tournament as they visit the in-state rival Virginia Tech Hokies tonight.
Virginia (20-6) has won nine of its last 10 games, and finds itself in the field in most bracket projections. However, the Cavaliers are still underdogs in the college basketball odds against Virginia Tech (14-11), even though the Hokies have lost four of their last five.
The Cavaliers are known for winning ugly, and they’ll be looking to do so again tonight against a rival that has been tough to beat on their home court. We’ll break down the matchup in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Virginia Tech on February 19.
Virginia vs Virginia Tech best odds
Virginia vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions
A quick look at the Virginia Cavaliers’ profile would lead anyone to believe they're a lock for March Madness. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll, have already hit the 20-win mark, and Joe Lunardi of Bracketology fame has them solidly in the field as a No. 8 seed.
However, there are problems with this resume. Advanced metrics aren’t kind to Virginia, which ranks just No. 53 in the KenPom ratings. All four of its losses in ACC play have been by double digits. And if you like attractive basketball, the Cavaliers won’t pass your eye test: they play notoriously slow, averaging just 65 points per game in equal parts due to their pace and mediocre efficiency from the field.
But the Cavaliers also play elite defense, stifling opponents to the tune of just 57.9 points per game and 39.4% shooting from the field. They have a number of strong wins on their resume, including a victory against the Texas A&M Aggies and their last game, a 49-47 triumph at home over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The bottom line is that Virginia looks like a tournament team, if not a particularly inspiring one, and it may only be their penchant for occasionally being blown off the court that has hurt their advanced metrics. The Cavaliers are a more talented team than the Hokies, who have some scoring punch in Sean Pedulla (15.5 ppg) and Hunter Cattoor (14.3 ppg), but lack the defense to compete with the top half of the ACC field.
That weak defense will haunt Virginia Tech against a Cavaliers offense that has at least one trick up its sleeve. Virginia has been excellent from 3-point range, shooting 37.9%. The Hokies rank outside the Top 200 in 3-point defense, and will now have to deal with a team that can run out at least six players with significant playing time who are threats to launch — and make — shots from the outside.
That reliance on the 3-pointer is probably why Virginia has a few ugly blowout losses on its record. When that shot isn’t falling, it can be hard for the Cavaliers to generate offense, and their pace of play means they don’t have many possessions to make up ground.
But as bettors, we have to recognize that this game plan usually works for the Cavaliers, and barring a particularly off night, they are just better than this mediocre Hokies team. Even on the road, Virginia is the better team here, and I expect another ugly win.
My best bet: Virginia moneyline (+145 +193 at BetMGM) 33% boost available
Virginia vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay
Virginia moneyline
Under 126.5
Hunter Cattoor Under 13.5 points
I like Virginia to win an ugly one tonight, and while that might not make for great viewing, it’s simple to build a same-game parlay around that idea.
I’m taking Virginia to win on the moneyline, but I’ll add in a bet on the Under at 126.5 points. Virginia is famously slow, but the Hokies aren’t a fast-paced team either, and the combination should lead to a game with limited possessions and scoring — especially for Virginia Tech.
On that note, I’m taking the Under on Hokies guard Hunter Cattoor’s scoring prop at 13.5 points. Cattoor is averaging 14.3 points per game, but that number is sure to come down against the Cavaliers. He scored 12 in the first meeting between these teams, and that was despite playing 38 minutes. Even at home, the Under is the smart play again here to finish off our SGP.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
Virginia Tech opened as a two-point favorite at home. Bettors have pushed that number higher, with the Hokies now running -3.5 at most books. You can find discounts as low as -104 on Virginia Tech if you’re willing to lay the points.
The Cavaliers have been solid against the spread this year, as Virginia has posted a 14-11-1 ATS mark. Virginia Tech is just 10-14-1 ATS on the season.
I get the skepticism over Virginia, but I can’t ignore the fact that it is clearly the better team in this matchup. The Hokies haven’t shown anything that suggests they should be favored against the Cavaliers, even though they are a good home team and have beaten Virginia on their home court three straight times. I’ll take talent over trends any day, which means I like the Cavaliers straight up or on the spread tonight.
The total for this game opened at 127.5 points. That number has dropped to a consensus Over/Under of 126.5, with -108 odds available on either side at the time of this writing for those who shop around at multiple sites.
It won’t come as a shock to most basketball fans to know that Virginia has posted a 15-11 record for the Under this year. Virginia Tech has been more neutral towards the total, with the Over holding a 13-11-1 edge in its games.
Virginia Tech has hit the Over four straight times, which has probably kept this total as high as it is. But the first time these teams met, they combined for just 122 points. Two of Virginia’s last four games haven’t even made it to a total of 100, a testament to its glacial pace of play. The Hokies also rank relatively low on pace metrics, and when these two teams meet, that leads to low-scoring affairs. I’m leaning towards the Under.
Virginia vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
Virginia has won 9 of its last 10 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Virginia Tech.
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Virginia vs Virginia Tech game info
| Location: | Cassell Coliseum, Blacksburg, VA |
| Date: | Monday, February 19, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Virginia vs Virginia Tech key injuries
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