West Virginia vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mountaineers and Bears Blow By Total

The Baylor Bears will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers on Monday night.

No. 9 Baylor has won nine of its last 10 games, and is now tied for second in the Big 12. West Virginia has won four of six, but is coming off of a 94-60 defeat at the Texas Longhorns on Saturday. 

The Bears already have a road win in this series, and will want to add a victory at home to continue their rise up the Big 12 standings. I’ll discuss whether they can get it done in my free college basketball picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Baylor on February 13.

West Virginia vs Baylor best odds

West Virginia vs Baylor picks and predictions

After opening its Big 12 schedule with three straight losses, Baylor has fought back to not only get near the top of the conference standings, but move into the Top 10 in the national AP rankings. Most recently, it took down the TCU Horned Frogs in a 72-68 road win on Sunday.

The Bears have gotten to this point behind the most efficient offense in the country, led by three guards — Keyonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer — each scoring over 14 points per game, a combination that has proven nearly impossible for opposing defenses to contain. Between getting to the line frequently and crashing the offensive glass, Baylor averages 1.113 points per possession. 

West Virginia is no slouch on offense, either. The Mountaineers are averaging 76.8 points per game, led by senior guard Erik Stevenson (14.2 ppg). Head coach Bob Huggins has shown frustration at WVU’s 4-8 record in conference play, but the Mountaineers are legitimately a NCAA Tournament team regardless of the middling record, with Ken Pomeroy’s ratings touting them as the 20th-best team in the country.

While these two teams can both play defense as well — they wouldn’t be competitive in the Big 12 if they couldn’t — there’s no denying that they are offense-first squads. In their first meeting, they combined for 161 points as Baylor pulled out an 83-78 win. While they started slowly, the two teams combined for 101 points in the second half to produce a shootout in Morgantown. 

We can expect a similar style of game on Monday. Both teams come in mostly healthy, with all of their top scoring options available for tonight’s contest. 

There’s also no sign that either team is moving away from this style of play as of late. The Bears have played to a total of at least 140 points in each of their last four games, with two of those going well Over the 150 mark. West Virginia has hit a number of at least 147 in each of its last five contests as well.

Based on what we saw in the first meeting between these teams, we can expect these trends to continue. With two teams on the floor who can score efficiently, a total in the 150s is far from outlandish, and as we’ve already seen, they can combine to go over 160. 

That’s enough incentive for me to take the Over tonight. This will be an offense-dominated matchup, and with the total still comfortably below 150, we should sit back and watch the points roll in without too much of a sweat.

My best bet: Over 148 (-110 at BetRivers)

West Virginia vs Baylor spread analysis

Baylor opened tonight’s game as a 6.5-point favorite. That line has largely remained untouched, but some sites have ticked the number up to Baylor -7 as of early afternoon on Monday.

The Bears are 13-11-1 against the spread this year, while West Virginia comes into this game 12-13 ATS and 3-5 ATS on the road.

Baylor has covered in each of its last three games, and has generally been a good bet during its recent run, going 7-2-1 ATS over its last 10. While the Bears have been favored in each of their last three, they’ve outperformed expectations each time, suggesting that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught up to just how good this team is.

West Virginia’s recent ATS numbers are more middling, though the fact it lost by 34 to Texas over the weekend added a pretty dramatic loss to its record against the number. But the Mountaineers were playing fairly well before that drubbing, posting solid wins at home against the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners.

The public is all over Baylor in this game, but I’m not so convinced this is that easy of a call. The line is fairly large, and West Virginia is better than its conference record suggests. On the other hand, the Bears did win by 5 over the Mountaineers on the road, and now have home court advantage against them on Monday. 

Overall, I’m inclined to back West Virginia at a book where I can get the full seven points, though I don’t think this is a clear and obvious pick. The Mountaineers have been just a little too competitive for me to lay seven against them tonight.

West Virginia vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

The total tonight opened at 149 for tonight’s game and has come down a touch since then. The consensus Over/Under stands at 148.5, though you can find a few books still offering 149 as their main line as well.

As I’ve already noted, these are two teams that like to score points and have played to high totals all season long, including in their first meeting. West Virginia has also been trending towards the Over, going Over the number in each of its last five games.

Baylor hasn’t been as consistently on that side of this market lately, though it has hit the Over in two of its last three. When it comes to the Bears, I’m considering their overall offensive prowess rather than any recent trends. Baylor has scored at least 80 points in four of their last 10 games, and has scored at least 70 points eight times in that stretch.

Those numbers are very favorable for hitting a total of 150 or higher. Between these two teams, we should expect fireworks and plenty of points. As I said in my best bet above, the Over is definitely the side to be on in tonight’s game.

West Virginia vs Baylor betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in West Virginia’s last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for West Virginia vs. Baylor.

West Virginia vs Baylor game info

West Virginia vs Baylor key injuries

Pages related to this topic