The No. 2 Auburn Tigers head to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the No. 9 Duke Blue Devils on Wednesday night. Not only is this a matchup between two of the best schools in the country, it's also a showdown between the consensus No. 1 pick in next year's NBA draft in Cooper Flagg and Wooden Award favorite Johni Broome.
Although my Auburn vs. Duke predictions don't expect Flagg to light up the scoreboard, I do expect a strong defensive effort from the Blue Devils tonight. Here are my best college basketball picks for this December 4 clash.
Auburn vs Duke prediction
My Cooper Flagg bet
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Flagg stuffs the stat sheet with his rebounding, passing, and shot-blocking ability, but he's had a tough time taking over games with his scoring. He's averaging 15.9 points per game and is coming off a quiet nine-point performance against Seattle.
Granted, that was on just seven field-goal attempts in a blowout win, but he also finished with just 13 points in 38 minutes in his previous game against Kansas. It's worth noting that Flagg had just two points in the first half and did most of his damage in the second half after Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson was ejected.
Flagg is in the Bottom 15th percentile when it comes to creating his own shot and midrange efficiency. He also seldom takes threes with the majority of his buckets comings when he attacks the basket.
He'll have a tough time getting good looks at the rim against an Auburn squad that has been playing the six-foot-10 Broome and 6-foot-11 Dylan Cardwell on the floor at the same time. In addition, Duke's second-leading scorer Kon Kneuppel has struggled against good defenses, so Auburn coach Bruce Pearl will be comfortable giving him space and sending more defensive attention to Flagg.
My best bet
Duke 1H moneyline (-135 at bet365)
My analysis
Even if Flagg doesn't erupt for 20+ points, I like the Duke Blue Devils' chances of having a halftime lead here.
The Auburn Tigers have the top-rated offense in the country but Duke has the top-rated defense and has the length and athleticism to keep them in check. The Tigers have also been reliant on threes and rank just 335th in the country at attacking the rim frequency per ShotQualityBets. That sort of spacing is great until you find yourself in hostile territory and those outside shots aren't falling.
This will be Auburn's first true road game this season and it will be at Cameron Indoor, which is one of the toughest venues in college hoops. The Tigers are 7-0 but found themselves trailing at halftime against Houston in a game at the Toyota Center and they were down 49-33 at half against Iowa State in the Maui Invitational last week.
Auburn vs Duke same-game parlay
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points
Duke 1H moneyline
Under 147.5
Since I'm betting on Flagg to go below his points total and Duke to slow down Auburn's offense, the Under 148 makes sense in this SGP.
The Blue Devils have gone 13-5 to the Under against ranked opponents since Jon Scheyer took over as head coach, and the Under has also cashed in their last five games overall.
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Auburn vs Duke odds
Auburn vs Duke live odds
Auburn vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Auburn +2.5 | Duke -2.5
- Moneyline: Auburn +120 | Duke -140
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Auburn vs Duke betting trend to know
The Under is 17-4-1 in Duke's last 22 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Duke.
How to watch Auburn vs Duke
| Location: | Cameroon Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Auburn vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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