Michigan will wrap up its non-conference schedule with a Sunday night meeting against Western Kentucky.
WKU won the last time these teams met, and my Michigan vs Western Kentucky predictions expect the Hilltoppers to keep things tight in the opening half.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Sunday, December 29.
Western Kentucky vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Western Kentucky first half +12.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a scary one for Michigan, to the point I even dabbled in the +1600 moneyline price of Western Kentucky to pull the massive upset, feeling it should be closer to +1450. However, my best bet is much less lucrative but comes with a higher expected hit rate.
This is an obvious sleepy spot for the Wolverines, who haven't played well for two weeks. If you need an example, ask Louisville yesterday. The Cardinals needed a last-second bucket to escape with a win as 20+ point favorites over Eastern Kentucky. The post-holiday hangover game has hit many teams, and we will undoubtedly see it somewhere over the next few days.
What built up the efficiency of the Michigan lineup has also revealed some new issues. The team's archetypes were always going to mean they would have some ball-handling issues, and they have.
However, with the two big lineups that Michigan has gone to, some of those issues can be exacerbated. Western Kentucky is likely to be able to highlight those problems, too.
After being elevated from assistant coach to head coach, Hank Plona has Western Kentucky playing a well-defined style of basketball involving high ball pressure and up-tempo play. He was undoubtedly influenced defensively by some of the coaches he worked under, particularly the previous WKU headman, Steve Lutz, who put frantic defensive trapping at the forefront of his program.
The speed at which Western wants to play may be its downfall against a Michigan team that thrives in transition. However, there's a clear avenue for Toppers to get under the skin of Michigan early.
As noted, the Wolverines' turnovers have been an issue all season. They now rank an atrocious 339th in turnover rate, and Western knows how to force them. I'm taking Plona's defensive scheming to get the better of Michigan head coach Dusty May early.
Western Kentucky vs Michigan same-game parlay
Western Kentucky first half +12.5
Over 161.5
I projected this total at 162, but given the high variance this game allows, the total will likely be well Under or well over. With that in mind, I took an alternate number and paired it with my best bet.
Neither of these teams will object to playing a break-neck fast tempo that exceeds 75 possessions. The turnovers Michigan commits will only aid in keeping this game mostly played in transition. Those turnovers are two-fold because if Western Kentucky isn't converting those scores, then the "game goes well Under" storyline could unfold.
However, I believe enough in the Toppers' athleticism in the open floor to make the most of those chances.
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Western Kentucky vs Michigan odds
Western Kentucky vs Michigan live odds
Western Kentucky vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Western Kentucky +18.5 | Michigan -18.5
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky +900 | Michigan -1600
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Western Kentucky vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the team total Under in 24 of its last 32 games (+14.75 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. Michigan.
How to watch Western Kentucky vs Michigan
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Western Kentucky vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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