Wisconsin vs Michigan State Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Davis Steers Ship For Badgers

The Wisconsin Badgers are waiting for the Michigan State Spartans in Round 3 of the Big Ten Tournament Friday.

The Spartans advanced to the quarterfinals with a win over Maryland last night, nearly blowing a hot start to that game with careless basketball in the final six minutes. The Badgers have been resting since March 6 and will have star scorer Johnny Davis back in action versus MSU after injuring his ankle in the season finale.

These conference rivals split their two meetings this season, with the road team picking up both wins. Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin on March 11.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Wisconsin opened as low as -1.5 and has since been bet up to as high as -3.5. The total hit the board at 138.5 and is down to 136.5 as of Friday mid-morning. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State predictions

• Prediction: Wisconsin -3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Davis Over 16.5 points (-105)

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network

Wisconsin vs Michigan State betting preview

Injuries

Wisconsin: Lorne Bowman G (Questionable).
Michigan State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Spartans got off to a strong offensive start in their Round 2 run-in with Maryland, jumping out to a 43-point first half on 57% shooting in the opening 20 minutes. Michigan State had it going both inside and out, making deep 3-pointers while getting soft touch around the bucket from its post players.

This output was unexpected for a program that struggled to score down the stretch of Big Ten play, with inconsistent efforts from its starters. However, the other shoe did eventually drop for MSU, as it went cold from the field and got careless with the basketball, leading the Terrapins to a late push that nearly cost Tom Izzo’s kids.

Wisconsin is a much stiffer test for Michigan State on the defensive end than Maryland — ranked 36th in defensive efficiency — and has the superstar factor in Davis, who can take over games — something the Spartans lack. 

Davis hung twin 25-point efforts on MSU this season, and while he comes into this game with a tender ankle, he’s still head and shoulders the best player on the floor. The Badgers run an efficient offense and aren’t married to a tempo like past incarnations of this program, instead adapting to whichever style is needed. And when the offense does bog down, Davis is the default. He’s able to create scoring chances in isolation.

With a spread this tight, top talent will be the difference. 

Prediction: Wisconsin -3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Michigan State is not a good offensive team — and nowhere near as good as it looked for 34 minutes last night. 

Turnovers continue to be an issue, amassing 16 in last night’s nail-biter and coughing up the ball at an average of almost 14 times per game on the season. The Spartans are reliant on ball movement and assists for scoring chances, while Wisconsin is great at plugging the passing lane. The Badgers have limited their last three foes to only eight assists per contest and an assist per field goal made rate of 0.312 in that span – 10th-lowest in the country. 

Another aspect of Thursday’s win that won’t show up versus Wisconsin is Michigan State’s hot hand from outside. The Spartans were 9-for-19 from deep for the game, including shooting 64% from beyond the arc in the opening half.

The Badgers get their heels above the 3-point line and defend the perimeter better than most, holding foes to an average of just 6.3 triples on less than 33% shooting. Michigan State took advantage of Maryland’s soft perimeter patrol (Terps ranked 272nd defending triples), but won’t get that same space tonight.

Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)

Best bet

Davis took a hard hit in the season finale against Nebraska but is expected to be good to go today, given Wisky has enjoyed an extended break by earning that two-round bye. 

The 6-foot-5 sophomore is showing up on many NBA mock drafts after a strong performance in conference play, averaging more than 20 points per game in the five outings before being limited to only 11 minutes due to that injury against the Huskers (in which he scored 10 points on 4-for-4 shooting).

Davis torched Michigan State in their two meetings, amassing 50 total points on a collective 16-for-31 shooting record while also attacking the rim to go 14-for-16 from the foul line in those two contests.

You can find his point prop total for this Round 2 run-in as high as 17.5 at some books, but bet365 has the bar set at 16.5 with the Over currently priced at -105.

Pick: Jonathan Davis Over 16.5 points (-105)

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