The Wisconsin Badgers need a strong finish to the regular season, aiming to earn a double bye in the upcoming Big Ten tournament.
That means getting over a bad loss last time out and beating up on the Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.
I like the Badgers to light up the scoreboard with my best Wisconsin vs. Minnesota predictions and college basketball picks on March 5.
Wisconsin vs Minnesota prediction
My best bet
Wisconsin team total Over 73.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Wisconsin Badgers have proven to be a good bounce-back team and have plenty of work to do after their worst offensive outing of the season.
Wisconsin managed just 62 points on 34% shooting in the loss at Michigan State this weekend, including a dismal 5-for-32 mark from beyond the arc. That was an uncharacteristic outing for an offense that ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten.
The Badgers stay on the road, where they hang 78.4 points per game and face one of the worst defenses in the conference tonight.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are near the bottom of the Big Ten in most major defensive metrics and got blasted 80-59 by UW in Madison back in January, with a shorthanded Wisconsin side surging for 50 second-half points.
The Badgers played that game without senior guard Max Klesmit, who could also sit out tonight after suffering a lower body injury at MSU. In his place, however, Wisconsin received huge minutes from Kamari McGee, who scored 15 points and grabbed five rebounds.
The Golden Gophers’ recent box scores are making this defense look better than it truly is. Minnesota has played plenty of opponents in the bottom half of the Big Ten in offensive aptitude, including USC (10th in offensive rating), Penn State twice (11th), injury-riddled Northwestern (14th), Nebraska (16th), and Washington (18th).
Against capable scoring attacks, Minnesota has hemorrhaged points to the likes of Purdue (81 points), Illinois (95), Maryland (77), and this very same Wisconsin squad (80).
Now, the Gophers face a fired-up and physical Badgers scheme that runs a lot of contact with on and off-ball screens. Wisconsin is specifically elite in the pick-and-roll playbook while also creating mismatches in isolation with all that screening. Minnesota sits among the worst teams at defending pick-and-roll sets, ranked 327th at ShotQualityBets.
On top of that, the Golden Gophers have a tough time guarding the 3-point arc, entering tonight ranked dead last in 3-point success allowed in the conference. The Badgers buried 11 of 28 attempts from distance in that January 10 win over the Gophers and connect on 9.5 triples per road game on the season.
Badgers head coach Greg Gard was happy with his team’s looks from long range on Sunday, despite that dismal shooting effort against Michigan State, so don’t expect UW to pull away from the perimeter shots tonight.
Game forecasts have Wisconsin scoring 74 points or more in 70.5% of models run, with my number at 76 points and the ceiling at 80+. That’s enough to get Over the current team total of 73.5 points (Over -120), which should have the Over juiced much higher based on those projections.
Wisconsin vs Minnesota same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin team total Over 73.5
Nolan Winter 10+ points
Steven Crowl 3+ assists
The Badgers bounce back from an awful outing and hang 74+ points on one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten.
Nolan Winter scores 10+ as part of that pick-and-roll and his underrated outside shooting.
Crowl is one of the better passing big men in the Big Ten, dishing out 3+ assists in four of his last five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wisconsin vs Minnesota odds
Wisconsin vs Minnesota live odds
Wisconsin vs Minnesota opening odds
- Spread: Wisconsin -7.5 | Minnesota +7.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin -360 | Minnesota +280
- Over/Under: Over 139.5 | Under 139.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Wisconsin vs Minnesota betting trend to know
Wisconsin has gone Over its team total in 23 of its last 36 games (+8.13 units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Minnesota.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Minnesota
| Location | Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Wisconsin vs Minnesota key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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