Xavier vs UConn Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Musketeers Will Keep it Close At First

It's day two of the Big East tournament bracket when the defending National Champion Connecticut Huskies meet the Xavier Musketeers.

Xavier got here by way of a thriller against Butler, relying on some critical plays down the stretch to win by four. X arrived at this tournament amid what could be categorized as a disappointing season. It likely had hopes of a March Madness odds berth this season, but if it cannot overcome the conference tournament odds, that won't happen. 

It's been mostly business as usual for the Huskies. They stormed down the stretch, winning 17 of their final 18 games. There was a small hiccup at the end of February, but the Huskies reeled off four straight afterward, strengthening beliefs that it could become a back-to-back National Champion.
 
Find out our best bet when we look at the college basketball odds and give our college basketball picks and predictions for Thursday, March 14th.

Xavier vs UConn best odds

Xavier vs UConn picks and predictions

This isn't a straightforward handicap for a variety of reasons.

The most pressing issue is you have to question the motivation of this UConn Huskies team to approach the conference tournament, which has been reduced to essentially nothing. They could lose here and still be a top seed in March Madness. In past years, the Huskies would be playing for the tournament's No. 1 overall seed. But this year? That doesn't mean anything because that placement sees the most benefits with preferential treatment for location and nothing else since seeding guidelines have changed. Given that the projected No. 1 seeds are all geographically spread out in this year's tournament, that likely won't come into play.

With that at the forefront, we're tasked with handicapping the team's motivation. My approach to that? Backing the more desperate side early in the game. But that's not the only reason why.

If the Xavier Musketeers hang around, they must do a few things well. The biggest among them is slowing down the spot-up shooters of the Huskies.

When the Huskies are knocking down threes, I'm not sure anyone in the country can slow them down. For the most part, I like Xavier's chances to stop them, though. Over the last month, it's been an area in which they've improved, holding all three opponents to fewer than 20 points per game on spot-up sets. That's a significant improvement compared to the 25 points per game they allowed on average to spot-up shooters about a month ago. Checking this box is big, and I expect X can do it well enough for at least half of the game.

On the other side of the ball?

It will be tough sledding for Xavier, and to stay around, it will have to knock down shots. Connecticut struggles when defending screens and pure shooters. Xavier doesn't have the best shooting team, but between Dayvion McKnight, Quincy Olivari, and Desmond Claude, there is enough. 

There's nothing fun about fading the defending National Champion.

Connecticut has steamrolled many teams this season, winning both games against Xavier, but the first matchup was much closer. This game should look a lot more like the first one did. There needs to be more motivation for the Huskies, and Xavier is armed with a seasoned head coach in Sean Miller, who has experience in these quick turnaround spots. I don't expect Xavier to win, but it will be ready to go early. Back the Musketeers in the first half.

My best bet: Xavier first half +9 (-115 at DraftKings)

Xavier vs UConn same-game parlay

Xavier first half +9

Over 149

+252 at DraftKings

I'm pairing our best bet with the full game Over.

We've seen this bet down from the opener of 151 to this number, and there's just too much of an adjustment. Connecticut's offense will eventually be able to get a consistent half-court offense and there's a good path for Xavier to have its shots falling, especially early. This is just too low.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Xavier vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

I have a limited opinion on this spread. My projection was -15.5, and it has settled around 16. With that in mind, there's not much of an edge.

Most of my handicap is focused on the lack of motivation for the Huskies and Xavier's ability to slow down UConn's shooters. However, that is not sustainable throughout the game, and at some point, I'd expect the veteran, more talented side to take over. If the game plays out like my handicap expects, you're likely to find a much better number in-game, offering a live-betting opportunity.

I like the Over in this matchup.

My projections see about a five-point edge on the number of over 149, and I placed a full unit on it. I'm comfortable with Xavier's ability to make enough shots to do their part, and I'm also comfortable with Connecticut's ability to make enough in-game adjustments to get its offense going. Points have been a theme when these teams have met over the last few years, with the Over hitting in seven of the previous eight meetings.  

Xavier vs UConn betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1 in the eight all-time matchups between these schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. UConn.

Xavier vs UConn game info

Xavier vs UConn key injuries

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