This is clearly not Nick Saban’s most talented Alabama team. Like, the Crimson Tide won’t have two of the top three picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, for example.
That said, ever since their loss to Texas, the Crimson Tide have won seven in a row, including an impressive win over LSU last week, and have covered the college football odds spread in five of those games — now they try to make it eight straight wins when they travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.
It has been a bit of a roller coaster this season for Kentucky: A five-game winning streak to open the season — followed by a three-game losing streak — before the Wildcats snapped that skid last week vs. Mississippi State.
Will the Tide keep rolling and cover as double-digit road chalk, or will the Wildcats keep this close? Read on for my thoughts and best college football picks Alabama vs. Kentucky on November 11.
Alabama vs Kentucky best odds
Alabama vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Things may have started slowly for the Alabama Crimson Tide this season... but here we are again. One more win and they are back in the SEC championship game for an eye-popping 10th time in the Saban era.
There were questions at quarterback for the Crimson Tide to begin the year, but Jalen Milroe sure looks like he has answered those in recent weeks. Milroe was initially viewed as a run-first QB but he’s shown his big arm ability during this winning streak, throwing for 1,387 yards with eight touchdowns and just three interceptions during the last six games of this run.
Overall, Bama ranks third in the country in yards per pass attempt and 34th in EPA/pass... which is a good thing against a Kentucky Wildcats team that enters this matchup having snapped a three-game losing streak against what could be classified as a tough stretch with matchups against Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee.
Kentucky not only lost those games, but failed to cover the spread in each, in part to KY not having the same stout defense we are used to from a Mark Stoops team: Kentucky ranks 77th in passing yards allowed per game, 84th in EPA/pass and 97th in defensive success rate vs. the pass.
The other problem for Kentucky today is having to deal with an Alabama defense that looks really good. Many thought this unit was going to take a big step back after Will Anderson left, but then here comes Dallas Turner... and all of a sudden this looks like a classic Bama defense.
The Crimson Tide rank 21st in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents and are fifth in defensive success rate. That will play against an inconsistent Kentucky offense that normally relies heavily on running back Ray Davis, who has rushed for 903 yards and nine scores this season, but Bama ranks 25th in yards per rush vs. FBS opponents.
Instead, Kentucky will have to lean on QB Devin Leary, who has had his ups and downs this season in completing just 57.1% of his passes and has thrown a pick in five of his nine games.
During Kentucky’s three-game losing streak, it was trailing at half in all three. I’m expecting an old-school Alabama fast start and taking the Tide to roll early and cover the first-half spread.
My best bet: Alabama -6.5 first-half spread (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Alabama vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Alabama first-half -6.5
Jermaine Burton anytime TD
Jalen Milroe Over 222.5 pass yards
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As always, our same-game parlay opens with my best bet, which for this SEC clash is Alabama -6.5 on the first-half spread. But who will help to contribute to that lead?
The best way to attack this Kentucky defense is at their corners and Jermaine Burton is Milroe’s favorite deep threat. Burton has hauled in 26 passes from Milroe for 537 yards and a team-leading five touchdown receptions. I like his chances to find the end zone in this matchup.
Let’s keep this as a Milroe-themed SGP. For those same reasons, I like him to go Over his passing yards prop which is sitting at 222.5. He’s gone Over this number in four of his last seven games and landed less than three yards below in another two. Milroe’s arm is a big factor in Saturday’s result.
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Alabama vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for this SEC matchup hit the board with Alabama as 10.5-point road favorites and that’s where the line sits as of Friday evening. As I’m taking Alabama on the first-half spread I would lean toward Alabama on the full-game spread as well. The only thing holding me back there is that the Tide could jump out to an early lead and kind of put it cruise control in the second half and open the door for a backdoor.
It’s the total that has seen a little more action at this point. It opened at 49 and has been bet down to 46.5 as of writing this. I’d agree with the early money here: Alabama’s defense is more than good enough to contain this inconsistent Wildcats offense that is averaging just 21.3 points over the last four games. But the number is low enough now, that will keep me away because I believe Alabama has the tools to take this one Over.
Alabama vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has only hit the first-half moneyline in four of its last nine games at home for -6.8 units. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Kentucky.
Alabama vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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