The Alabama Crimson Tide will look to avenge their College Football Playoff loss from last season as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday.
The Wolverines were underwhelming this season but looked better down the stretch, which is why I’m taking them to cover a generous spread in my Alabama vs. Michigan predictions.
Keep reading to see my full analysis of the ReliaQuest Bowl in my free college football picks for Tuesday, December 31.
Alabama vs Michigan prediction and best bet
Who will win Alabama vs Michigan?
These two schools produced an absolute classic in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinals, but both have taken a significant step back in the 2024 season. Of the two, however, Alabama was the only one to stay relevant at the national level. While the Crimson Tide didn’t necessarily deserve to be in the playoff field, they were realistically one of the top 12 teams in the nation and should have more than enough to beat a surprisingly mediocre Wolverines squad.
My best bet
Michigan +15.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Michigan Wolverines spent the entire season out of the national spotlight, a precipitous fall from grace after winning the College Football Playoff title last year. But there were some signs of improvement down the stretch for the Wolverines, who have covered in four of their last five and ended the season with a 13-10 victory on the road against the hated Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Wolverines were never able to accomplish much offensively, with quarterback Davis Warren throwing for just six touchdown passes and nine interceptions on the season. While Michigan was more successful on the ground, both leading rusher Kalel Mullings — who declared for the NFL draft — and second back Donovan Edwards have opted out for the ReliaQuest Bowl.
But it’s unclear how much of a difference any of that will make for bettors. The Michigan offense hasn’t been good, and it won’t be good on Tuesday. On the other hand, the Wolverines have maintained an elite level of play on the defensive end.
Michigan was particularly potent at shutting down the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt. Opponents scored 20.5 ppg against the Wolverines, who have had an effective front that can also put pressure on quarterbacks. One underrated aspect is that the Michigan defense picks up just 31.2 penalty yards per game, which means few free first downs for opposing quarterbacks.
A handful of Wolverines on the defensive end have opted out, but key players like defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny are still in the lineup.
They should still have more than enough to slow down Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Crimson Tide offense.
Does that mean Michigan will stop Milroe or be able to win this game outright? That’s highly doubtful. But I do think the Wolverines will prevent this game from getting out of hand. Getting more than two touchdowns on the spread, I like Michigan to cover.
Alabama vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan +15.5
Under 44.5
I like Michigan to cover the two-touchdown spread in the ReliaQuest Bowl. That’s largely based on the strength of the Wolverines' defense, which I believe can keep this as a relatively low-scoring game for 60 minutes.
That’s leading me also to take the Under for my same-game parlay. Alabama has already played Under this total in each of its last two games and now faces off against a Michigan defense that has allowed just 12 ppg in its last three games. The Crimson Tide will eventually find ways to score, but I expect this game to be a tight affair that comes in Under 44.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Michigan odds
Alabama vs Michigan live odds
Alabama vs Michigan opening odds
- Alabama vs. Michigan spread: Michigan +14.5
- Alabama vs. Michigan moneyline: Alabama -750, Michigan +525
- Alabama vs. Michigan Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Alabama vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- Alabama went 7-5 against the spread on the season, with Michigan posting a 5-7 ATS mark this year.
- The Crimson Tide are 4-4 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite; the Wolverines have covered in two straight games as an underdog of 14 points or more.
- The Over has a 7-5 advantage in Michigan’s games this year, while Alabama has played to an even 6-6 on each side of the total.
- The Crimson Tide have played to an average total of 52.7 ppg this season, with the Wolverines averaging a total of 42.7 ppg.
Alabama vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Michigan.
Alabama vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs Michigan latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Alabama vs Michigan weather
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