Things were looking dire for the Alabama Crimson Tide, but somehow Bama is in control of its destiny for the SEC title game heading into this weekend's matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners.
Jalen Milroe and the Tide have been rolling, but the Sooners will be the best defense they have faced since their loss to Tennessee. My Oklahoma vs. Alabama predictions explain why scoring could be hard to come by early on.
Here are my college football picks for this conference matchup on Saturday, November 23.
Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction and best bet
My best bet
Uner 23.5 First-Half Total (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It was just about a month ago when Alabama’s outlook for the remainder of the season wasn’t looking pretty following a 24-17 loss at Tennessee. It marked the Crimson Tide’s second conference loss of the season, and a spot in the SEC title game looked like a fantasy at that point.
But the way the SEC has played out, it’s like the sea has parted for the Tide. If they can manage to beat Oklahoma and Auburn in the next two weeks, a path to Atlanta is pretty clear.
Bama has been rolling since the loss to Tennessee, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 128-20 with quarterback Jalen Milroe being the big catalyst. Milroe has thrown for a modest 510 yards and two touchdowns over that stretch, but he’s been a real problem on the ground, totaling 278 yards and finding the end zone six times.
However, Alabama isn’t getting much in the run game outside of Milroe, ranking 62nd in rushing success rate. And if there is someone who can set up a scheme to slow down Milroe for a bit, it’s Brent Venables.
While the Sooners are a mess on offense (more on that in a second), they rank 10th in opponent EPA/play and 19th in defensive success rate. Against ground games, they rank 8th in EPA/rush and third in success rate.
Unfortunately, Oklahoma’s offense isn’t doing its part. Venables has made multiple switches at quarterback, and the move to Jackson Arnold hasn't solved the lack of productivity. The Sooners rank 117th in offensive success rate and 125th in success rate on dropbacks.
Alabama currently sits 17th in defensive success rate and fifth in opponent EPA/play. The Tide aren’t perfect on defense and can be attacked, but Oklahoma isn’t the team to take advantage of Bama's weaknesses.
Venables and this defense will contain Milroe for long enough to cash the 1H Under before the Tide pull away in the second half.
Alabama vs Oklahoma same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 23.5 First-Half Total
Ryan Williams Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Ryan Williams Anytime TD
Everyone knows that Brent Venables and Oklahoma will do whatever they can to not let Jalen Milroe beat them on the ground. To that, Kalen DeBoer and Milroe will look to huck it up to freshman phenom Ryan Williams.
Williams can take it to the house on any play. He boasts 767 receiving yards on 40 catches for 19.2 yards per reception and has scored eight times through the air and twice on the ground. Yet, his receiving yards prop is sitting at an oddly low 54.5 for this matchup.
Williams has been a little quiet over the last three wins, but they haven’t really needed him in those games. I like him to bust a big one against an Oklahoma defense that ranks 60th in success rate on dropbacks.
I’ll have a single wager on Williams to eclipse 54.5 yards, but let’s add an anytime touchdown to this SGP as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Oklahoma odds
Alabama vs Oklahoma live odds
Alabama vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma spread: Oklahoma +13.5
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma moneyline: Alabama -660, Oklahoma +450
- Alabama vs. Oklahoma Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Alabama vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis
- It has been a tough first season in the SEC for Oklahoma, with the Sooners having just one conference win. Meanwhile, Alabama is 1-2 ATS in SEC play when laying 13.5 points or more.
- The total hit the board at 47.5 and has been bet down slightly to 46.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- Along with the first-half Under, I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.
Alabama vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide have hit the 1H game total Under in seven of their last 12 games (+2.75 Units / 21% ROI), while the Sooners have cashed the 1H game total Under in seven of their last 11 (+3.80 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Oklahoma.
Alabama vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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