One of the more intriguing games of bowl season kicks off tonight as the Baylor Bears face the LSU Tigers in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium.
Both offenses can lay it on thick, which is why my Baylor vs. LSU predictions side with the Over.
Baylor vs LSU prediction and best bet
Who will win Baylor vs LSU?
The Baylor Bears (-175) will win the Texas Bowl. Before bowl season kicked off a few weeks ago, they were one of my favorite underdog selections in bowl pick ‘em pools.
I’m not jumping ship now that the line has flipped from +3 to -3.5. That wild line movement indicates the LSU Tigers having what seems like half their team absent for this contest due to opt-outs and the transfer portal.
Baylor, meanwhile, has minimal absences and will essentially be fully intact and motivated to finish a momentum-building season in Waco.
My best bet
Over 59.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While I loved Baylor as an underdog, the line movement has been out of control. At the current number, I’d consider buying back on LSU.
There are expected to be plenty of points, and it’s easy to see why. Both offenses are deadly, and both defenses have significant question marks, so there should be fireworks in Houston.
Baylor offensive coordinator Jake Spavital is one of my favorite coordinators in college football. He doesn’t get the publicity as some other big-name coordinators, but he should. After leading a much-needed offensive revival in Cal a year ago, he did the same thing in Waco in 2024.
The Bears averaged 34.7 ppg — a massive improvement from a year ago when they mustered 23.1 ppg. They found their quarterback of the future in 6-foot-4 Sawyer Robertson, who emerged after the first few games of the year to throw for 2,626 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding another 227 yards and four scores on the ground.
The offense took off under his direction and saw another breakout in the backfield when Bryson Washington notched 1,221 scrimmage yards and 13 scores as a freshman. Those two are a dangerous combination for any opponent and gelled at the right time.
Baylor won six straight games to end the year, scoring at least 37 points in five of those wins while averaging 41.3 ppg. The Robertson and Washington combination appears to have made all of the difference under a strong OC, and the Bears averaged a superb 7.2 yards per play during the winning streak.
LSU will be without both starting safeties as Sage Ryan transferred to Ole Miss and Major Burns opted out. The Tigers finished 94th in EPA per play and 120th in explosiveness on that side of the ball and it’d be a major surprise if they don’t give up a handful of touchdowns in this contest.
On the flip side, Baylor also has concerning metrics on defense (77th in EPA per play, 101st in success rate) despite facing an easier strength of schedule.
The Bears don’t put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks (123rd in PFF’s pass rush grade), and their secondary has issues (116th in coverage grade), so Garrett Nussmeier should have a strong day.
LSU’s biggest concern is a makeshift offensive line missing starting tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones. That’s mitigated against a soft Baylor front, and Nussmeier should be able to find Aaron Anderson repeatedly while hitting Chris Hilton on some deep shots.
Give me the Over in a game that forecasts as a shootout.
Baylor vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 59.5
Bryson Washington anytime touchdown
Aaron Anderson Over 79.5 receiving yards
Aaron Anderson anytime touchdown
Bryson Washington has been a touchdown waiting to happen since taking over as the starting running back in Waco. He’s found the end zone 10 times in his last four games alone and is seeing a huge workload, so it’d be a surprise if he isn’t celebrating at least once in the Texas Bowl.
Aaron Anderson stands to have a big day as LSU’s de facto WR1. Leading receiver Kyren Lacy opted out, as did fellow starting receiver CJ Daniels and starting tight end Mason Taylor.
Anderson averaged 65.3 receiving yards per game this year despite sharing pass-catching responsibilities with those three teammates. Three of the team’s top four pass catchers will be absent, and no other receiver dressing up for the bowl game has eclipsed 200 receiving yards this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs LSU odds
Baylor vs LSU live odds
Baylor vs LSU opening odds
- Baylor vs. LSU spread: LSU -3
- Baylor vs. LSU moneyline: Baylor +115, LSU -135
- Baylor vs. LSU Over/Under: 60.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Baylor vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baylor has been a covering machine at 9-3 ATS while LSU has fallen short of expectations at 4-8 ATS.
- Baylor finished the season with a six-game winning streak and covered the spread in every contest.
- Baylor has covered the first-half spread in five straight games played away from home. That number currently sits at -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Baylor has cashed their team total Over in eight of its last nine games.
Baylor vs LSU betting trend to know
Baylor is 7-2-1 O/U since Sawyer Robertson was named the starting quarterback in Week 3. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs LSU.
How to watch Baylor vs LSU game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Baylor vs LSU latest injuries
Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.
Baylor vs LSU weather
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