College Football Best Bets Week 11: Ground and Pound

I knew that would happen. I called out my steak, and of course, I went 1-2, but the record is still an impressive 12-6 over the last six weeks, and my college football picks in this week’s Triple Option will get me back on track.

Our latest college football predictions include a plus-money player prop for one of the Ohio State running backs, a sicko Sunbelt bet, and I abandon one of my ride-or-dies.

Here are my college football best bets for Week 11.

College football best bets Week 11

• Henderson 75+ rushing yards (+130)
• /  GSU-JMU o53.5 (-114)
• Utah team total Under 18.5 (-114)

Picks made on 11-7. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 11 best bets

Best bet #1: TreVeyon Henderson 75+ rushing yards

Best odds: +130 at bet365

The Ohio State Buckeyes are flying high after their big 20-13 win over previously undefeated Penn State in Happy Valley last week. They were then ranked second in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings.

Now, they might normally be in for a letdown spot this week following that big win, but luckily for them, they get to play the Purdue Boilermakers... at home.

The Boilermakers have lost seven in a row, don’t have a win against an FBS opponent this season, and look like they’re already counting down the clock on the season. That's probably why OSU is a massive 37.5-point favorite.

And you know what? Purdue might be able to cover this spread in something like a 42-7 beatdown. So, I’m going to avoid the spread and focus on who will be responsible for running up the score: Buckeyes running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.

Both backs have been effective this season. Judkins has rumbled for 615 yards at 6.5 yards per carry and six scores. He’s also coming off arguably his best game of the season, racking up 95 yards against a very good Nittany Lions defense.

However, being the lead back and coming off a big game, I think we're losing some value with Judkins, so I’m locked in on Henderson. The senior has rushed for 503 yards and has a higher yards per carry than Judkins this season at 7.0 per attempt. He's also been the more consistent of the two backs, rushing for 54+ yards in all but one game this season. 

And both backs should get plenty of work against a Purdue defense that's been steamrolled this season. The Boilermakers rank 93rd in defensive success rate and 108th in EPA vs. the rush this season while ranking 121st in opponent yards per carry, surrendering 5.5 per attempt.

Henderson’s rushing prop is sitting at 65.5, but I’m going to take a stab at him to hit the 75+ mark at enticing plus money instead.

Best bet #2: Georgia State-James Madison Over 53.5

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

Here’s one for the sickos. I was moderately invested in some props for Marshall running back A.J. Turner in a mid-week game against the Georgia State Panthers (shoutout to Turner, who cashed all of those bets).

However, something important happened for Georgia State in that game that I've taken with me. The Panthers may have found something in backup quarterback Zach Gibson. 

Georgia State made a switch at quarterback to Gibson in that Marshall game, and while it hasn't won yet with him under center, he's been a big upgrade for this offense. Gibson has now thrown for 690 yards with a 69% completion percentage, five touchdowns, and one interception in about two and a half games of action.

The Panthers have put up 20, 26, and 27 points the last three weeks with Gibson as their quarterback, and with running back Freddi Brock, this team finally has some balance on offense.

Do I think Georgia State is going to come in and compete with James Madison and their strong defense this week? Probably not, but it looks like oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough to this switch at quarterback and are giving us some value on the total because I believe they can do their part to send this one Over the number.

Of course, I’m also banking on an inconsistent Dukes offense to do most of the heavy lifting here. Still, since JMU is at home and is going against a Georgia State defense that ranks 122nd in defensive success rate and 118th in opponent EPA/play, I’m not too worried about its ability to generate points in this matchup.

And we’ve all seen how explosive this James Madison offense can be at times. Alonza Barnett and George Pettaway should have big games on Saturday. Give me the Over 53.5 in this matchup, a number Gibson has gone Over in each of Georgia State’s last three games.

Best bet #3: Utah team total Under 18.5

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

Welcome to the shameless plug for my podcast College Football 134, a show that's been known as a Utah Utes pod all season long. Well, it’s time for a heel turn heading into the Holy War as the Utes prepare to host the undefeated BYU Cougars at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday night.

My support for Utah was based partially on whether Cam Rising was a living, breathing, and functioning college football quarterback. Unfortunately, that's not the case, and I've now seen enough of freshman Isaac Wilson to know he ain’t him. At least not yet.

In the last three games Wilson has started, the Utes have scored 14, 7, and 10 points. Wilson is completing just 52.6% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions. To make matters worse, he's now reportedly dealing with an undisclosed injury.

So, a Utah offense that ranks 113th in success rate could be down to its third-string quarterback going up against an amped-up BYU team that just saw itself ranked at No. 4 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

This is a rivalry game and the Big 12 has been maybe the most unpredictable conference in college football. Still, the Cougars have been consistently solid on both sides of the ball, and have the goods to shut down this Utes offense. Even at night, at Rice-Eccles. 

BYU enters this game ranked 24th in opponent yards per play, 16th in opponent EPA/rush, and ninth in opponent EPA/dropback. The Cougars' one weakness is that they're susceptible to explosive plays every now and then. 

Luckily, Wilson and the Utes are probably one of the teams least likely in the country to take advantage of that. 

Crazy things happen in rivalry games, and if you told me Utah won this game 17-13, I wouldn’t be that shocked, but that still wouldn’t be enough to take them Over a team total set at 18.5.

More College football Week 11 predictions

• Florida State vs. Notre Dame: Notre Dame -25.5
• Michigan vs. Indiana: Indiana -14.5
• Nevada vs. Boise State: Over 60.5
• BYU vs. Utah: Over 40.5
• Florida vs. Texas: Florida +21.5
• Georgia vs. Mississippi: Under 55.5
• Miami vs. Georgia Tech: Over 63.5
• Syracuse vs. Boston College: Syracuse moneyline
• Purdue vs. Ohio State: Under 53.5
• Maryland vs. Oregon: Over 58.5
• Alabama vs. LSU: LSU moneyline

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
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College football odds for Week 11

Here are the full college football odds for this week.

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