College Football Best Bets Week 15: No Ducking Around

It’s crazy to think that Conference Championship Week is already here which means it’s my final Triple Option of the season. 

This is a bummer because my college football best bets have been on fire. With more profit last week, my Triple Option bets are now 20-10 over the last 10 weeks. 

So, let’s end the season on a high with some more winning college football picks as conferences crown their champions.

College football best bets Week 15

• Iowa State/Arizona State Over 49.5 (-110)
• Georgia/Texas Under 50 (-110)
• Oregon -3.5 (-105)

Picks made on 12-6. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 15 best bets

Best bet #1: Iowa State-Arizona State Over 49.5

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Big 12 was a wild ride all season long (I still blame all this on Baylor injuring Cam Rising back in Week 2), and what we are left with is the Iowa State Cyclones taking on the Arizona State Sun Devils in what is a College Football Playoff eliminator. 

This matchup is a contrast to the topsy-turvy conference as a whole, but makes sense in that you can make the case these were the two most consistent Big 12 teams for the majority of the season.

Iowa State enters this game 10-2 and has won its final three games in a row to secure a spot in this game, including last week’s pivotal win over Kansas State. But realistically, the Cyclones had a pretty easy schedule and Arizona State will provide the toughest test yet. 

Speaking of the Sun Devils, what an impressive second season for head coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils finished the year 10-2 and enter this game as winners seven of eight straight up and against the spread, including wins over BYU and Kansas State.

Arizona State comes at you with a balanced attack led by quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo. Leavitt threw for 2,444 yards with 21 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions but Skattebo is the engine that makes this Sun Devils offense go, rushing for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns in 11 games. 

As a result, the Sun Devils rank No. 10 in success rate on rushes and 17th on dropbacks. Surprisingly, this Iowa State defense has been susceptible against good running games, ranking 84th in success rate. Skattebo should pick away at the Cyclones all game, setting up Leavitt to strike when the opportunity arises.

Now, consistency doesn’t mean Arizona State is flawless. You can pass on the Sun Devils. They rank 101st in success rate on dropbacks, meaning things are set up for Iowa State QB Rocco Becht to have a big game.

Becht threw for 3,021 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight picks while scoring another seven times on the ground this season. 

With those things in mind, I think we’re in store for a wild Big 12 title game. Which is appropriate considering the season we just saw. So give me the Over.

Best bet #2: Georgia-Texas Under 50

Best odds: -110 at DraftKings

I really wanted the SEC Championship Game to give us one more SEC first-half Under of the week. Unfortunately, it feels like oddsmakers are on to us. 

The Georgia Bulldogs will take on the Texas Longhorns in the SEC title game with a first-half total of 24 and a full-game total of 50. So, I’m seeing a little more value in the full-game number at this point. So, it’s no first-half Under, but it’s close.

Despite the fact that they are Georgia, it feels like the Bulldogs snuck into the SEC Championship with two conference losses and narrowly escaped a non-conference loss to Georgia Tech in the regular season finale.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns took the SEC by storm in their first season in the conference, going 7-1 but with the lone loss coming against none other than Georgia. The Dawgs won that game 30-15 in what was arguably their best game of the season. So, what can we expect in the rematch?

Well, for starters we are going to see plenty of good defense. This may not be Georgia’s best defense but it is still loaded with NFL talent, and ended the regular season ranked 12th in opponent EPA/play and 37th in success rate.

They will now go against a very good Texas offense, but it’s clear that Quinn Ewers is banged up right now. And that Dawgs defensive line held him to 25-for-43 passing for just 211 yards. That is just 4.7 yards per attempt.

But teams that beat Georgia this season, or should have beat them (cough, cough Georgia Tech) were able to run the ball against the Dawgs and had balance with the passing game. Texas only handed the ball off to running backs 17 times in that earlier meeting. I expect that to change this time around. Additionally, I think we’ll also see some more specific packages for Arch Manning in this one. Running or otherwise.

But what makes Georgia beatable is its inconsistent offense. Something just isn’t right with Carson Beck. Sure he came on strong in the second half against the Yellow Jackets. But people may forget in a 44-42 final that the Dawgs were shut out at half.

Beck’s decision-making has also come into question as he threw as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns in SEC play this season. Three of them coming in that game against the Longhorns. Texas also limited him to 175 yards on 41 attempts in that game.

And with no real game-breakers at the skill positions, scoring could be tough against a Texas defense that ranks second in opponent EPA/play and 22nd in success rate.

Only one Texas game in SEC play has gone Over this season. I expect it to stay that way after the SEC Championship.

Best bet #3: Oregon -3.5

Best odds: -105 at FanDuel

I had my handicap for the Big Ten title game all laid out. I was ready to take the points with the Oregon Ducks while my College Football 134 co-host Douglas Farmer was ready to fight me and lay with the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Then Ryan Day was Ryan Day and the Buckeyes suffered an inexcusable loss to rival Michigan and at home on top of that. 

So, instead, the undefeated and No. 1 ranked Ducks will face off against the Penn State Nittany Lions for the Big Ten Championship. 

The Nittany Lions’ lone loss on the season of course came against the Buckeyes, in Happy Valley. So, the question is, can James Franklin finally get that big win he and the program have been waiting for? 

Simply put, no. 

Oregon and Ohio State is a close matchup, with exciting battles across the board. So, I looked back at Penn State’s game against the Buckeyes to see if they could do anything better this matchup against the Ducks. And sorry Penn State fans, I didn’t come up with a lot.

The final score of that game against the Buckeyes was 20-13 but the Nittany Lions did not score an offensive touchdown. Drew Allar threw for just 146 yards on 12-of-20 passing with an interception. The majority of those completions were dump offs to Nicholas Singelton while Ty Warren was held to just 47 yards on four catches. 

While this Oregon defense might not be as good as Ohio State, it’s still pretty damn good. The Ducks rank eighth in opponent EPA/play and 15th in defensive success rate. 

The Ohio State game also proved you can run on what is a very good Penn State defense as Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined for 149 yards on 24 carries. So, Ducks running back Jordan James (1,166 yards rushing yards, 13 TDs) could be a problem.

And it’s not like the Nittany Lions can just focus on shutting down James. It’s not Will Howard back there for Oregon. It’s Dillon Gabriel.

Gabriel threw 3,275 yards with 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions this season and leads a Ducks offense that ranks fourth in EPA/play and fifth in success rate. 

Basically, this comes down to the fact that Allar hasn’t proved himself in big games and I don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with Gabriel and the Ducks in this one. 

Oh and give me Dan Lanning over James Franklin in this situation 10 times out of 10. Quack, quack, quack. I’m laying this short spread with the Ducks.

More College football Week 15 predictions

• Clemson vs. SMU: Clemson moneyline
• Penn State vs. Oregon: Over 49.5
• Ohio vs. Miami (OH): Ohio +2
• Marshall vs. Louisiana: Under 57.5
• Iowa State vs. Arizona State: Iowa State moneyline
• Georgia vs. Texas: Under 50.5

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

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College football odds for Week 15

Here are the full college football odds for this week.

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