College Football Player Props & Best Bets: Moss, Feagin Come Up Big

Prop bet #1: Kirk Francis Over 199.5 passing yards

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were a popular team for college football media heads to hype up heading into the season. The reasoning was clear, as they returned nearly everything to a team that made a run to the Big 12 title a year ago. 

The problem? Folks forgot that the Cowboys simply weren’t good at football last year, ranking 76th in EPA per play on offense and 115th on defense. 

Mike Gundy made an odd hire at defensive coordinator before last season, bringing in Bryan Nardo from Gannon University, a Division II school. Most people chalked it up as just Gundy doing Gundy things — “weird” is often the norm with the longtime coach. 

I still have my reservations, however, after Oklahoma State was gashed for 648 yards on 7.0 yards per play against Arkansas. 

The next matchup is a more favorable one against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, but there’s still expected to be plenty of offense, as the total currently resides at 62.5 on BetMGM. This game should see plenty of snaps as Oklahoma State ranks eighth in plays per minute (2.70) while Tulsa ranks a respectable 42nd (2.29). With more snaps comes more opportunities for offensive players to produce, especially if the defenses on the other side still have a lot to prove. 

Now, let’s dive into the offerings. Tulsa quarterback Kirk Francis’ passing yardage prop has been set at 199.5.

He may not be a household name, but Francis impressed me in his three starts as a true freshman by throwing for 297.7 yards per game with six touchdowns and two interceptions. The now redshirt freshman caught my eye again with 299 passing yards in the opener. 

He’s only failed to eclipse this number in one of his five career starts, and that was a week ago when he came half a yard shy against Arkansas State. The Golden Hurricane ran just 61 plays in that game, with Francis attempting 29 passes. 

The game environment should be much better this time around as both teams like to play with tempo and Francis should be forced to throw a lot with his team listed as 18.5-point underdogs.

Prop bet #2: Kaden Feagin 80+ rushing yards

Best odds: +125 at DraftKings

We whiffed on Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin’s rushing prop last week against Kansas, but I have no qualms about going back to the well in a more favorable matchup in Week 3. 

We know what style of football Bret Bielema wants to play, and we know what he wants his team’s offensive identity to be. Bielema has had as many 1,000-yard rushers as he’s had seasons as a head coach, so his running backs are a must-target for college fantasy football players and college football player prop enthusiasts around the globe. 

Feagin has taken command of the room as a sophomore, rushing 32 times through two games while gaining 148 yards and scoring twice. It comes as little surprise that he’s this year’s feature back after rumbling for 438 yards and two scores as just a true freshman last year. 

The Atwood, Illinois native is faster than you’d expect for a massive back listed at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds. He’s a workout warrior who can only be described as an athletic freak, so his potential is off the charts in an offense that wants to establish the running game. 

Week 3’s opponent is the Central Michigan Chippewas, a MAC team that allowed 194 rushing yards to the mighty Central Connecticut State in Week 1 and 185 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per rush to Florida International in Week 2. 

That was the most yards the Golden Panthers had gained on the ground since Week 3 of last season when they gashed an infamously bad North Texas D for 223 yards, so it’s evident this CMU defense is on par only with the worst of the worst. 

The Chips rank 105th in EPA per play and 132nd in explosiveness on defense. Unsurprisingly, they’ve been particularly poor against the rush, ranking 126th in EPA per rush and dead last (134th) in rushing explosiveness. 

Prop bet #3: Le’Veon Moss 70+ rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Texas A&M Aggies were dealt a blow in camp when running back Rueben Owens suffered a foot injury that will keep him out for the 2024 season. The former five-star recruit was expected to split the workload with Le’Veon Moss as a sophomore, but Moss naturally earned more responsibilities in his stead. 

Moss caught my attention as a sophomore last season, earning an 86.8 rushing grade from PFF and averaging 3.00 yards after contact per attempt. He’s been strong again this year, averaging 3.69 yards after contact per attempt while forcing eight missed tackles — matching the rest of the backfield combined, quarterback included, on 16 fewer carries. 

Moss looked like a bell cow in Week 1, handling 20 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown while catching two passes for 13 yards in the loss to Notre Dame. That was the only time the Aggies would find the endzone on the evening. He followed it up with nine carries for 84 yards and two touchdowns against McNeese State despite only playing two series. 

Texas A&M is hurting offensively, but Moss is one of the few bright spots. Expect him to be featured heavily in this offense, especially with quarterback Conner Weigman battling through an injury and being listed as questionable for Saturday’s matchup against the Florida Gators. 

Florida hasn’t been able to stop a thing defensively, ranking 100th in EPA per play and 119th in success rate. The Gators can be beaten on the ground, checking in at 108th in EPA per rush and 113th in rushing success rate. 

A&M has been sound up front, ranking 15th in line yards and fourth in front-seven havoc. The Aggies are eighth in rushing success rate and will hope to lean on an offensive line that returned 112 career starts heading into the year.