Of the six teams most likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoff in FanDuel’s odds, three of them reside in the Big Ten. An argument could be made those expectations simply set up the Big Ten for the most chaos in the college football odds this season. If only we can be so lucky.
More likely, Ohio State and Oregon will churn their way to a rematch in the Big Ten championship game and thus both reach the Playoff while Penn State will take advantage of an easier schedule to make for three teams in the expanded postseason.
If there is a chaos agent to emerge in the biggest conference in the country, who would it be? Let's take a look.
Big Ten predictions for 2024
- Nebraska to win Big Ten (+5,500)
- Purdue Under 4 wins (+115)
- Michigan State Under 4.5 wins (+126)
- Best Heisman bet: Dillon Gabriel (+750)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Big Ten championship odds
| Team |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes |
+155 | +150 |
 Oregon Ducks |
+200 | +220 |
Odds as of 8-22.
| Team | |
|
|---|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions |
+500 | +450 |
 Michigan Wolverines |
+700 | +850 |
 USC Trojans |
+2,000 | +2,000 |
 Iowa Hawkeyes |
+3,500 | +4,000 |
 Nebraska Cornhuskers |
+5,500 | +5,000 |
 Wisconsin Badgers |
+6,500 | +5,000 |
 Washington Huskies |
+8,000 | +10,000 |
Odds as of 8-22.
A bloated Big Ten
An 18-team league is a hefty one. It will make for some wildly unbalanced schedules. In most leagues, that would tilt the title chase all on its own. It is inevitable when facing only nine of the other 17 teams. But not in this year’s Big Ten championship odds.
Take, for example, the AP-ranked No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (polls do not matter, but it lends some context to this thought). By any account, the Nittany Lions should be one of the best teams in the country. And of the Big Ten’s three other teams in the top 10, Penn State faces only one of them, hosting the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Meanwhile, the No. 3 Oregon Ducks face the Buckeyes and head to the No. 9 Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines also head to Columbus. Obviously, Ohio State faces all three possible conference top-10 foes.
Yet, the Buckeyes and the Ducks are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the conference in the odds, a testimony to just how strong their rosters are in 2024, even when compared to Top-10 calibers in Penn State and Michigan.
There will come a year when the unbalanced schedules of an 18-team Big Ten cause a bounty of griping. It will be a surprise if that concern comes this year.
The favorites
Ohio State has four first-team preseason AP All-Americans, two on each side of the ball plus two more second-teamers, again evenly distributed. Now those accolades precede accomplishment, but they still emphasize the talent on the Buckeyes’ roster. And yet, those accolades do not highlight the pieces of Ohio State’s defense that most underscore the NIL era of college football.
Senior defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau has posted 22 tackles for loss in his career, was first-team All-Big 10 in 2022, and a fourth-team All-American. Fellow senior defensive end Jack Sawyer has 14 career sacks and was third-team All-Big 10 last season. Before name, image, and likeness rights, both Tuimoloau and Sawyer would have almost certainly headed to the NFL last season. Instead, Ohio State could make it worthwhile for them to return to Columbus for one more season.
As a result, the Buckeyes return nine defensive starters, the exceptions being Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs and veteran middle linebacker Cody Simon, neither any version of a concern.
Oregon’s roster highlights the other half of the new college football era, likely starting three transfers on each side of the ball to remain in national title contention. Most notable of them, by far, is sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel, formerly of Central Florida and Oklahoma.
His natural accuracy combined with arguably the country’s best offensive line should allow the Ducks to open up their offense more. While last year's offense was plenty prolific, it was largely via short passes and bountiful yards after the catch, compensating for Bo Nix’s accuracy issues.
That idea of Gabriel sets up Oregon with what is expected to be the country’s best offense. On Oct. 12, it will face what should be the country’s best defense in Ohio State’s.
The rest of the field
If either the USC Trojans or the Iowa Hawkeyes had more than half a reliable roster, their schedules set up to contend for the Big Ten title, particularly the Hawkeyes’. Iowa faces only one of that quartet of Top 10 Big Ten teams, heading to Ohio State on Oct. 5. The Trojans have to face two of them, but they at least get to welcome Penn State to Los Angeles.
But each remains a one-sided team. Consider ESPN.com’s SP+ rankings: USC looks to have the No. 5 offense in the country but the No. 87 defense. Iowa may have the No. 2 defense in the country but they also have the No. 117 offense.
The latter worry could provide for the greatest continuation of unintentional comedy in college football history. The Hawkeyes’ offensive line should be better. They return nine offensive starters and will absolutely have better quarterback play. Yet, what if former offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz was never the problem? What if the offensive malaise in Iowa City is entirely head coach Kirk Ferentz’s doing and has been all along? This insistence on early 20th century football could yet again cost the Hawkeyes any postseason hopes.
Pick to win the Big Ten: Nebraska
Odds: +5,500 at DraftKings
Ohio State should win the Big Ten. Make no mistake. If looking for the bet most likely to cash, bet the Buckeyes. But if looking for the bet with the most value, bet the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
First of all, Nebraska encounters only one of those Top-10 opponents, heading to Ohio State in late October. The Cornhuskers should be favored by a touchdown in all seven games before that worry. Ending the season with a trip to USC, a visit from Wisconsin and a visit to Iowa very well could result in three straight losses, but if Nebraska has found a groove by then, who knows?
That seven-game easing into the season will give five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola time to gain some confidence, particularly with a top-tier defense returning four of its front-seven starters as well as the bulk of its secondary.
The Huskers went 1-5 in one-score games last year, furthering the tragedy that is going 5-21 in one-score games since 2020. Last year’s versions were particularly brutal as the deciding score in four of those one-score losses came either with zeroes on the fourth-quarter clock or in overtime.
Nebraska was negative-12 in turnovers in those six games. An ounce or two of turnover luck would have flipped Matt Rhule’s debut season in Lincoln to 7-5 or 8-4 rather than 5-7.
The 2024 offseason buzz around the Cornhuskers would be much louder if that luck had arrived in 2023. Recognizing that implies value now.
Big Ten best bets for 2024
Purdue Under 4 wins
Odds: +115 at BetRivers
Some things can be simple: the Purdue Boilermakers might have the worst combination of offensive and defensive line play in the Big Ten.
A truth to remember in college football’s portal era is that strong offensive line play cannot be found in the portal. A hole can be fixed, but bringing in six offensive linemen to fill two spots indicates an awareness that it is a desperate weakness.
Defensively, the Boilermakers lean on two returning starters amid their front-seven. These are not the ingredients designed for wins against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Oregon, Ohio State or Penn State. That much is certain. In Purdue’s other seven games, it should be a touchdown underdog at Oregon State and against Nebraska.
In other words, the Boilermakers would need to run the table in their five games within a possession to burst this win total. Their season opener against FCS-level Indiana State aside, none of those will be sure victories for Purdue.
Michigan State Under 4.5 wins
Odds: +126 at FanDuel
Across its offensive and defensive lines, the Michigan State Spartans return exactly one starter. This reality runs directly counter to newly-arrived head coach Jonathan Smith’s usual approach. Just like for Purdue, these realities spell some certain doom for the Spartans against the likes of Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan.
Resetting an already struggling offense will be especially difficult in a Big Ten ripe with outstanding defenses. Michigan State may struggle to reach double digits against Maryland and Rutgers.
To make matters worse, the Spartans head to Boston College for the Eagles’ annual Red Bandana Game. This may seem anecdotal, but Boston College always exceeds expectations on the night it remembers the bravery of Welles Crowther (if you do not know that story, look it up, you’ll be better for it).
Such significant worries in the trenches should make it too much to ask for Michigan State to go 5-1 in its other six games. Football is a game of blocking and tackling, and the Spartans will struggle at those two fundamentals.
Best Big Ten bet to win the Heisman: Dillon Gabriel
Odds: +750 at DraftKings
I'm going to turn this section over to my colleague, Andrew Caley, who presents the argument for Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel.
I needed to come up with a Heisman thought for the Big Ten today. Know what? I'm gonna turn that over to @Covers_Caley from the debut episode of "College Football 134" which you should be able to find on most any podcast platform. pic.twitter.com/yCKfwuFFbT
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 22, 2024
Big Ten stat to know
ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings are widely considered to be the analytics standard in college football, and they place the Top 4 defenses in the country all in the Big Ten: Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State, in that order. Even more notably, Nebraska comes in at No. 6 and Wisconsin at No. 7. Life does not get much easier beyond them, with seven more Big Ten defenses considered in the Top 30. That is to say, 13 Big Ten defenses may be among the Top 30 in the country.
If your offense is not dialed in, it will be a long season for you in the Big Ten.
Not intended for use in MA.
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