After a slow start to the season, Deion Sanders has his Colorado Buffaloes humming ahead of their game against the overachieving Cincinnati Bearcats.
With both teams on a hot streak since mid-September, my Cincinnati vs. Colorado predictions expect the Bearcats to keep things close.
Read more in my college football picks for October 26 below.
Cincinnati vs Colorado prediction and best bet
My best bet
Cincinnati +6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Colorado has improved so much this season it’s overshadowed another Big 12 team on the upswing, Cincinnati.
The Bearcats were projected to be among the worst teams in the conference. Instead, they’re 5-2 and have gone 4-0-1 ATS since Week 3.
While the same argument can be made for the Buffaloes — who have covered in five straight — the public’s support of Sanders’ team has ballooned this line. Colorado was initially a 3.5-point favorite.
If this spread was still 3.5, I’d be backing the Buffs to cover, but with it moving three more points in Colorado’s direction, I’ll happily back Cincinnati.
Ultimately, I think Colorado will win, but by seven-plus points is a tall task with the way the Bearcats have looked as of late. Cincinnati has risen to 41st in SP+, just one spot behind Colorado, and Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby has been one of the best portal pickups in the Big 12.
The redshirt sophomore has Cincy ranked 33rd in EPA per dropback and he’s second behind just Shedeur Sanders in QB rating in the Big 12 (152.1).
He’s also Top 5 in the conference in adjusted completion rate (74.7%) and the only QB other than Sanders in the Big 12 with eight-plus big-time throws and five or fewer turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Sorsby’s efficiency has been the perfect complement to an offense wanting to lean on its running game and should against a Buffaloes defense 52nd in EPA per rush. Colorado’s allowing 153.1 rushing yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati matches up well with Colorado. The Bearcats' run defense is legit — ranking 14th in EPA per rush — and Buffalo already struggles to run the rock (63rd in EPA per rush).
That should allow the Bearcats to focus on stopping Sanders and Travis Hunter. It’s also fair to wonder how impactful Hunter will be with his should injury knocking him out of last week’s win over Arizona, the second straight game he’s exited early.
Colorado wins this one but doesn’t cover the spread. I think it ends somewhere in the range of a 27-23 win for the Buffaloes.
Cincinnati vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)
Cincinnati +6.5
Corey Kiner Over 84.5 rushing yards
Shedeur Sanders Over 319.5 passing yards
If the Bearcats are going to cover, Corey Kiner is going to need to carry the load. He’s been one of the best backs in the Big 12 this season, with his 598 rushing yards ranking seventh in the conference.
Kiner has topped 84.5 rushing yards in three of his last six games, and he’s a tackle-breaking machine. The RB is second in the country in missed tackles forced (51) behind just Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty.
If Kiner and Co. can keep it close, Colorado’s going to lean on Sanders’ arm. He’s thrown for Over 319.5 passing yards in all three of the Buffaloes’ games that have ended with a final score differential of seven or less.
In those three games, he’s averaging 391.3 passing yards per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cincinnati vs Colorado odds
Cincinnati vs Colorado live odds
Cincinnati vs Colorado opening odds
- Cincinnati vs. Colorado spread: Colorado -3.5
- Cincinnati vs. Colorado moneyline: Cincinnati +170, Colorado -210
- Cincinnati vs. Colorado Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Cincinnati vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Colorado opened as a 3.5-point favorite, the line has shifted even further in Deion Sanders’ team’s direction with the Buffaloes -6.5.
- Colorado is 5-2 ATS this season, but Cincinnati isn’t far behind at 4-2-1 after covering in four of its last five.
- The Over/Under opened between 55.5 and 56.6, with most books coming up to between 57 and 57.5.
- The Buffaloes are 4-3 betting the Over this season while the Bearcats are just 2-5.
Cincinnati vs Colorado betting trend to know
Colorado has hit the game total Under in seven of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Cincinnati vs Colorado.
Cincinnati vs Colorado game info
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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