Let’s not beat around the bush: This Week 2 slate of the college football season is lacking for big-stakes games. There are only two Top-25 matchups, and both of them pose spreads of more than a touchdown.
Well, as of Friday afternoon, Texas is back to just -7 at Michigan, but Saturday morning could see that rise by the hook once again.
But focusing on only the Top 25 is not the end-all and be-all, and there are massive college football picks to bet if you remember two things.
First of all, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff means there are lower-profile games with genuine Playoff implications this weekend. Secondly, this is supposed to be fun. Sometimes the fun is laughing at your coworker’s, neighbor’s, or brother’s expense.
College football betting news for Week 2
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Group of Five Upset Hopes
- Is This Heaven? No, It's Iowa State at Iowa
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- On Colorado and Deion Sanders
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
There are 134 teams in the highest level of college football, hence the Covers.com college football podcast being named “College Football 134.” The beauty of the expanded Playoff format is it finally allowed all 134 teams to believe they could win the national championship.
Could they all? Of course not. Some teams simply are not good. But there is finally a legitimate pathway for anyone not named Connecticut. (Or UMass in 2024, but as of 2025, the Minutemen can dream of an undefeated MAC championship and thus a Playoff berth.)
The Playoff including five conference champions means one team from the Group of Five is guaranteed a meaningful postseason appearance. Three games this weekend could influence that conversation, starting with one most have overlooked.
UTSA heads to Texas State on Saturday, kickoff at 4 ET on ESPNU. Texas State is favored by a point with a total of 61.5. The winner of this game will arguably have the most impressive Group of Five victory of the season thus far, and it will knock out a fellow competitor for that Playoff spot.
As of Friday evening, Texas State has the second-best odds to win the Sun Belt at FanDuel, +360 trailing only Appalachian State at +260. UTSA has the third-best odds to win the AAC at +500, trailing both Memphis (+190) and Tulane (+310).
Both the Bobcats and the Roadrunners have viable hopes of winning their conference. A non-conference win against another genuine Group of Five contender should age well. This is, quite simply, the second-most important game of the weekend in the big picture, trailing only Texas at Michigan.
Group of Five Upset Hopes
Similarly, only Michigan upsetting Texas would influence the College Football National Championship odds race as much as the thought of Appalachian State (+17) topping Clemson, or Boise State (+19.5) upsetting Oregon.
Obviously, neither is likely. But those nightcaps have greater stakes than simply featuring a three-possession underdog. Keep that in mind.
Why am I not betting Appalachian State this week in a great spot at Clemson?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 6, 2024
Gambling 101: Know when you might tilt. Proactively prevent it. Protect yourself from yourself. pic.twitter.com/JYu70eyeOc
If either upset occurs, that program will achieve pole position in reaching the College Football Playoff. Even if it is a loss, losing by single digits would age well three months from now.
Is This Heaven? No, It’s Iowa State at Iowa
It does not need to be pretty to be enjoyable. Sometimes football is beautiful on the inside because it has a great personality.
Maybe Iowa State at Iowa does not even have a great personality, but this game has been constantly entertaining. Not consistently. Constantly.
The last six games have been decided by an average of 5.7 points, with no margin greater than 10. Only one of the last 12 matchups has seen a margin greater than two possessions. Exclude that 2016 blowout and the other 11 games have been decided by an average of... 5.7 points.
This one should fit that mold, the 3:30 ET kickoff on CBS featuring Iowa favored by a field goal with a total of 35.
Iowa State has moved to +3.5 for El Assico. I'm jumping on that number.
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 5, 2024
Here's my breakdown from Tuesday's episode of College Football 134. 👇 pic.twitter.com/PCSFxZmXoq
These fans live next door to each other. They work together. They have sneered at each other all week. This feigned bitterness is our universal love language. Even if not a Cyclones or Hawkeyes fan, how can you not be romantic about college football?
Bonus Bet from Douglas
I had notes on eight different games for my Week 2 best bets, settling on four of those matches. Of the other four, I may have talked myself into one other side (Hello Tulane +9.5, -110 at FanDuel), one number is no longer available (Oklahoma State -10 now instead of -7.5), and a third may have simply been too ambitious (Missouri -34.5 vs. Buffalo).
But the last one, the number has made it more appealing.
On Wednesday night, the total for Eastern Michigan at Washington was just 47.5, frustratingly below the key numbers of 48 and 49.
Sound the alarm, it is now at 49 with the Under at -110 at Caesars, and that is a value play.
Everyone knows Washington is replacing its entire offense. It scored 35 on FCS-level Weber State last week, momentarily camouflaging any worries. Note the word choice of “momentarily.” Its actual definition is “for a moment.” As in, the Huskies’ offensive worries will appear soon, and facing Eastern Michigan may be the moment.
Eagles head coach Chris Creighton thrives as an underdog, and he knows to shorten this game. Eastern Michigan will go out of its way to minimize possessions, and its defense will find ways to frustrate Washington.
Catching this total at the key number of 49 provides an abundance of value.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Eastern Michigan at Washington Under 49 (-110 at Caesars)🏈
On Colorado and Deion Sanders
Nebraska has the No. 6 defense in current SP+ ratings.
Colorado already fears running the ball, and the proof is in the pudding following last week’s playcalling. Nebraska's defensive line will be able to pursue Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders, and when he is under pressure, life gets ugly for Colorado.
It's not a Shedeur Sanders thing. It's not a Deion Sanders thing, at least not in the fall. It definitely isn't a Travis Hunter thing.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 5, 2024
But I am fiÏlled with Colorado doubt this weekend.
Give me Nebraska -7.
(a choice made live while recording "College Football 134" this week) pic.twitter.com/DYJkMF3vpp
The Buffaloes ranked dead-last in the country last season with 492 yards lost to sacks. No. 132? Old Dominion at 366 yards lost in one more game and on six more sacks. When Sanders gets flustered, he makes poor decisions. He runs backward. The losses get laughable.
If Nebraska gets any kind of lead on Saturday night, Colorado’s offense may crumble. Live betting is a delicate balance, but Sanders’s habit when hassled is something to remember.
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You don't need to always have a bet down. You should wager only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Texas -7 at Michigan
3:30 ET — Charlotte at North Carolina Under 48.5
7:00 ET — Kansas -4.5 at Illinois
After Dark — San Diego State +6 vs. Oregon State
College Football 134 Tuesday recap + Saturday sneak peek
Tuesday Value on Baylor and Utah
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a variety of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Take Baylor at Utah, for example. That was a best bet on Tuesday at Over 53. As of Friday afternoon, it sits at 55 or 55.5, depending on your sportsbook.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here)⚡️
Saturday LIVE at 9 a.m. ET
There is not a single question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley won't answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it.
Preferably, it is about college football. There are 49 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend, after all. But if you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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