In the first FBS bowl of 2024, South Alabama takes on Western Michigan in Montgomery, Alabama.
Between the poor defensive play of both programs and the talented playmakers each team can lean on, my South Alabama vs. Western Michigan predictions expect a high-scoring affair in my college football picks for Saturday, December 14.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While both teams have legit NFL prospects on offense, taking the Over is just as much about how bad the stop units have been this season.
Western Michigan enters Saturday 120th in SP+, with the Broncos allowing 31.4 points per game (31.4). Meanwhile, South Alabama's defense sits 90th in EPA per rush this season and is surrendering 397.4 total yards per game.
Luckily for the Jaguars, their offense has picked up the slack, ranking 48th in SP+ and 20th in points per game (34.8). Gio Lopez is a huge reason why, with the redshirt quarterback accounting for 25 touchdowns. He’s also surrounded by a strong group of playmakers, including NFL draft prospect Jamaal Pritchett.
As for the Broncos offense, they're only expected to be down tight end Blake Bosma after he decided to enter the transfer portal. However, this offense has the ability to keep humming, featuring the likes of veteran QB Hayden Wolff and a trio of productive running backs in Jalen Buckley, Jaden Nixon, and Zahir Abdus-Salaam.
Bank on a shootout at the Cramton Bowl on Saturday night.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan player prop
Jamaal Pritchett Over 89.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Arguably the top NFL draft prospect appearing in this game, Pritchett has been on a tear this season. He ranks eighth in the country in receiving yards (1,127) and has eclipsed 89.5 yards in three of his last four games.
After a slightly slow start to the season, the wideout is averaging 104.6 receiving yards per game in his last seven outings. Western Michigan is not built to slow his pace either, with Pritchett sitting seventh in the country in yards per route run (3.34) and 19th in YAC per reception (8.3).
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South Alabama vs Western Michigan odds
South Alabama vs Western Michigan live odds
South Alabama vs Western Michigan opening odds
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan spread: Western Michigan +10
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan moneyline: South Alabama -400, Western Michigan +310
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Alabama vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- South Alabama opened as a 10-point favorite, but the line has steadily moved in Western Michigan’s direction with most books offering the Jaguars -7.5.
- Both South Alabama and Western Michigan are 5-7 ATS this season, but the Jaguars have failed to cover in two straight.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 59.5 and has since dropped to 57.5 at most books.
- The Jaguars are just 5-6 to the O/U this season, while the Broncos are 7-5.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
The Broncos have only hit the game total Under in four of their last 11 games (-3.70 Units / -31% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs Western Michigan.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan game info
| Location: | Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
South Alabama vs Western Michigan latest injuries
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