MetLife Stadium sees the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants meet on Sunday with the biggest spread of the weekend.
The Ravens are 16.5-point favorites and should win this, but my Ravens vs. Giants predictions are focused on the total instead.
See why I like the Under in my NFL picks for December 15.
Ravens vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Under 43 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If you want a truly competitive game, then it’s probably best to look elsewhere with Sunday’s Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants game looking like the most predictable matchup on the slate. There’s only one double-digit favorite in the NFL this weekend and that comes here, with the Ravens laying a huge 16.5 points.
While the Giants have truly stunk up the NFC East this season, and the entire NFL if we’re being honest, it has to be said that 16.5 is a massive spread. The Ravens will almost certainly win but a spread that large is worth avoiding. That leads us to look for another angle, and it’s the total market that offers us the most predictable and safest bet, where we’re going to be taking Under 43.
The Ravens boast a monstrous offense when they get going and they’re capable of tearing opposition teams to shreds. They’ve averaged 29.5 points scored per game, the third-highest amount in the NFL behind the Lions and Bills, two of the Super Bowl front runners.
Sunday’s game total stands at 43, having dropped one point from 44 at opening. That’s 13.5 points higher than the Ravens’ average score, so the question is: Can we see the Giants doing enough on offense to see the total covered?
We know from Brian Daboll that Tommy DeVito is likely to start under center for the Giants, with Drew Lock now out of a walking boot and potentially acting as an emergency QB. DeVito has started just one game for the Giants this season, a 30-7 defeat to the Bucs. That game saw DeVito complete 21 of 31 passes for 189 yards and no touchdowns.
The Giants have scored an average of 14.9 points per game this season, the lowest mark in the NFL, and ranks seventh from the bottom in DVOA.
Things haven’t been much better since the team cut Daniel Jones following the Week 10 loss to the Panthers. In three games post-Jones they’re 0-3 and have averaged 12.6 points per game. They put up just seven points in defeat to the Bucs and only 11 against the Saints, and only managed a respectable 20 points against a Cowboys’ defense in turmoil.
All three of the defenses they’ve faced since Jones have been in the bottom half in terms of defensive DVOA. While the Ravens are giving up a lot of passing yards per game, they’re still ranked in the top half of NFL defenses and will prove a real upgrade to what DeVito (and Lock) have faced so far this season.
We’re going to see the Ravens put up points on this defense, but it’s likely they’ll pull key players once the game is out of sight, and we can be confident that the struggling Giants’ offense won’t be able to do enough to put the Under in peril.
Ravens vs Giants same-game parlay
Under 43
Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards
Derrick Henry anytime TD
In addition to the best bet above, we’re going to add a further two legs, the first of which is for Derrick Henry to have 100+ rushing yards.
We’ve seen six of Henry’s 13 games end with the former Titan putting up over 100 rushing yards, and this looks like a prime matchup for him. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Giants, who are giving up an average of 141.7 per game.
This could be a big Sunday for King Henry. He’s now been two games without a touchdown, his longest streak this season, and should have a good chance of ending that dry run here. Across the last two weeks he’s had 43 carries, so he’s still getting volume. He should be able to score against the soft belly of this Giants’ defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Ravens vs Giants odds
Ravens vs Giants live odds
Ravens vs Giants opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore -14.5 | New York +14.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -1200 | New York +750
- Over/Under: Over 44 | Under 44
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Ravens are just 6-6-1 ATS this season, but the Giants are far worse at 3-9-1 ATS this season.
- The Giants have won just two games all season and are 0-7 SU at home.
- Baltimore is 10-3 to the Over in 2024, but New York holds a 4-9 O/U mark.
Ravens vs Giants betting trend to know
The Giants have hit the 4Q Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Giants.
Ravens vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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