College Football Week 0 Reactions and Overreactions: Adjust Accordingly to FSU Falling Flat

The 2024 college football season could not have started with more drama. The single-greatest storyline from the 2023 season — unbeaten Florida State being snubbed by the College Football Playoff selection committee — had a genuine chance at redemption this year.

And then the No. 10 Seminoles faceplanted.

Worse yet, they faceplanted when there was absolutely nothing to distract any college football fans from watching. There was nothing else to overreact to. There was no other score to check. Only Florida State losing to unranked Georgia Tech.

As we get ready to attack Week 1 college football odds, how should we react to the Seminoles’ letdown? What about SMU struggling with woeful Nevada?

College football Week 0 things you should not overreact to

Don't overreact to Florida State’s offensive line worries

There's no sugarcoating this. The Florida State Seminoles gained 103 yards on 30 rush attempts. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei never looked comfortable in the offense, particularly in the first half as he rarely threw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage.

To describe that with the simplest possible stat: Of Uiagalelei’s 193 passing yards, 119 of them came after the passes were caught, which means his 19 completions were caught an average of 3.9 yards past the line of scrimmage. All aspects of that allowed Georgia Tech’s defensive line to key in a bit more than even the Yellow Jackets probably expected.

A year ago, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets struggled to create pressure, doing so only 23.6% of opposing dropbacks. That defensive front providing enough stress for Uiagalelei to be in unplanned situations should cost Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell sleep this week.

Here's the good news: the Boston College Eagles were significantly worse at turning pressure into sacks last season. That pass defense ranked No. 128 out of 133 teams in terms of expected points added per dropback, with opponents adding an average of 0.327 points to their expected score whenever they dropped back, per cfb-graphs.com.

Their rush defense was better, ranking No. 127.

Could Boston College’s defense have improved as much as Georgia Tech’s? Sure, it’s possible, but new head coach Bill O’Brien is an offensive mind and he did not have much time to find many better players, having been hired in February.

Florida State's clearly not a national title contender, but that doesn't mean it won't take care of business on Labor Day.

Douglas' advice: That loss to Georgia Tech dropped FSU to a 17.5-point favorite vs. Boston College, having been at -21.5 up until Wednesday and then moving to -20.5. Moving a line by three points because of struggles in the season opener is rash. If that line falls to the key number of -17, bet against the rash move.

Don't overreact to New Mexico almost winning outright

Yes, the New Mexico Lobos lost at home to an FCS team, 35-31. No, that was not surprising. New Mexico was a 13.5-point underdog and exceeded expectations, but do not upgrade the Lobos in any regard.

Montana State’s kicking worries led the Bobcats to forgo two field-goal opportunities. Two Montana State fumbles bounced to New Mexico so fortuitously that the Lobos took them straight to the end zone. Consider all that a 20-point swing at the least.

New Mexico was outplayed much worse than a 35-31 loss suggests. The Lobos were outgained by 1.2 yards per play, they converted just one of eight third downs, and their defense gave up 7.7 yards per rush.

Douglas' advice: Some books moved New Mexico to +28.5 next Saturday at Arizona from +31 before the Lobos’ season began. They did move back to +30.5, but no movement was justified. Go ahead and bet the Wildcats at -30.5 while it's available. The hook below the key number of -31 may prove valuable, and any movement from New Mexico playing competitively on the scoreboard ignored the play-by-play dominance from Montana State.

Don't overreact to Nevada nearly upsetting SMU

The Nevada Wolf Pack were nearly four-touchdown underdogs against the SMU Mustangs. Losing 29-24 was impressive. This can’t be argued.

However, it may have had more to do with Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone than anything else. Stone is returning from a broken leg. He and did not look himself. Last season, he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, nearly a yard more than Saturday’s 8.5.

Furthermore, Nevada melted down late, giving up 16 unanswered points to blow an 11-point lead. The Wolf Pack were never in control, outgained by 1.7 yards per play and 110 total yards.

Historically, teams that play in Week 0 fare poorly against the spread in Week 1 when facing an FBS opponent making its debut. Nevada heads to Troy next week and now the Trojans have some film to study while the Wolf Pack have little firm idea what new Troy coach Gerad Parker is scheming up.

Realizing SMU may have made Nevada look good rather than the Wolf Pack outright excelling plants two seeds for this month.

Douglas' advice: Let your SMU opinion linger through September. It does not begin ACC play until Sept. 28 vs. Florida State. Facing BYU and TCU in the two games before that should give us a clearer picture of the Mustangs than this close win did.

Douglas’ advice: Sportsbooks lowered Nevada to a 10.5-point underdog at Troy after the Wolf Pack kept things tight with SMU. That spread had been +13 or +13.5 since midweek. It's hard to fathom this spread falling further to -10, so go grab the Trojans at -10.5 now, given -11 is a key number that should not have been crossed.

College football Week 0 things you definitely should react to

Absolutely react to Florida State’s overall struggles

Toward the end of the preseason, Florida State was a +300 favorite at FanDuel to win the ACC, with Clemson at +370 and Miami at +440. Clemson is now the favorite at +270 with Miami at +350 and Florida State not entirely doomed at +550.

However, the Seminoles should have fallen further. They already had little margin for error, needing to face both the Tigers and Hurricanes this season. Falling a game behind each of them out of the gates very well may be the difference between making the ACC title game and not.

The best defensive line in the ACC? Probably Clemson’s. It's hard to fathom the Tigers not making Uiagalelei’s life miserable on Oct. 5.

Douglas' advice: If not already holding a Clemson ticket, now is the time to add one. Looking any version of decent next Saturday against Georgia would shorten the Tigers’ price even further. Florida State’s struggles may not be worrying every week against middling competition, but what we saw Saturday will cost the Seminoles against strong teams like Clemson.

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