College Gameday is rolling into Columbia on Saturday as South Carolina looks to end a seven-game losing streak against LSU.
The Tigers rebounded from their loss to USC with a win over Nicholls State last week, but they didn’t look that convincing and will need to perform better to win on the road. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks trounced Kentucky and hope their relentless pass rush can take them to a 3-0 start.
Saturday’s game could be a perfect storm — literally and figuratively — for a low-scoring affair, and that’s why I'm backing the Under in my South Carolina predictions and college football picks for September 14.
LSU vs South Carolina prediction
My best bet
Under 48 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The LSU Tigers came into this season with people raving about their offensive line, but it’s been a rough start for them so far.
An LSU rushing attack that was already struggling took a big blow last week, with John Emery tearing his ACL in practice. Head coach Brian Kelly confirmed he will miss the season, and despite not playing against Nicholls State, he remains their leading rusher with 61 yards on the season.
As a unit, the Tigers have gained just 181 yards on 46 carries — and if you take away Emery’s 39-yard run against USC, they’re averaging just 3.2 yards per attempt. That’s exactly what they got against Nicholls State, running 21 times for just 68 yards.
If LSU can’t stay ahead on down and distance with the ground game, it opens things up for a South Carolina Gamecocks pass rush that made Kentucky look hapless last week. Five-star freshman Dylan Stewart has already made a name for himself, and his battle with Emery Jones, Jr will be phenomenal to watch.
The Gamecocks boast one of the top Havoc rates in college football at 27.1%, and their front seven is responsible for a Havoc play once every five snaps. They’ve also had a success rate on first down of better than 40%, meaning teams are typically looking at six or more yards needed on second down.
On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s offense has yet to really click. LSU’s defense hasn’t performed well this season, and that could benefit quarterback LaNorris Sellers. He’s a dual-threat quarterback who showed flashes against Kentucky, and he’ll have an easier time this week than against the Wildcats and their strong pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s offense has yet to click. Raheim Sanders is a solid running back, but the Gamecocks have a rushing success rate of less than 36%. They’ll want to improve on that run game and try to maintain possession, as I don’t think they’ll like their chances of winning in a shootout.
Making things more interesting, the weather could be a real factor. While Columbia looks like it’ll avoid most of the outer bands of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Francine, the forecast calls for periodic showers. More importantly, winds will be gusting up to 35 mph, which will not only impact downfield throws but will make things tricky for both kickers.
South Carolina’s defense will come to play, and they’ll slow down Nussmeier in his first true road game. Those factors, combined with the weather conditions, will be enough to keep the score low.
LSU vs South Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 48.5
South Carolina +6.5
Raheim Sanders anytime touchdown
The Gamecocks are going to thrive in front of their fans. Gameday will only help to intensify the Sandstorm-loving crowd, and their pass rush is going to have Nussmeier feeling uncomfortable from the opening kickoff. Sellers will take advantage of LSU’s poor secondary play on play-action, and the South Carolina offense will score enough points to cover the spread.
Sanders will be key to them doing that, and I expect him to get plenty of carries on Saturday. He only had 13 carries for 54 yards against the Wildcats, but he busted a 21-yard scamper and took one into the endzone in the third quarter.
LSU gave up 145 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week to Collin Guggenheim of Nicholls State, including a run of 67 yards. Sanders will find space to operate, and he’ll get into the endzone for the third game in a row.
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LSU vs South Carolina odds
LSU vs South Carolina live odds
LSU vs South Carolina opening odds
- Spread: LSU -7.5 | South Carolina +7.5
- Moneyline: LSU -275 | South Carolina +200
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
LSU vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread of 6.5 points has fluctuated since opening last weekend. LSU was favored by as much as 8.5 after opening at -7.5, but it’s been consistent at -6.5 since Monday.
- LSU is 0-2 ATS this season, and just 3-5 ATS on the road under Brian Kelly. That includes a 2-4 mark as road favorites.
- Bettors have been expecting a low-scoring game, with the total coming down to 48 after opening as high as 55.5.
- The Under has hit in five straight games for South Carolina. However, these teams have seen the Over go 3-0 in their last three meetings.
LSU vs South Carolina betting trend to know
South Carolina has hit the 1Q moneyline in nine of its last 12 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs South Carolina.
LSU vs South Carolina game info
| Location: | Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
LSU vs South Carolina latest injuries
LSU vs South Carolina weather
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