College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Commodores Are Calling

Cincinnati team total Under 24.5

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

After going 42-9 in the AAC between 2019-2022, including a trip to the College Football Playoff, the Cincinnati Bearcats moved to a Power 4 conference last year. But Cincinnati’s transition to the Big 12 has not been a smooth one.

The Bearcats went 3-9 last season with just one conference win, and 2024 hasn’t looked much better through the first two games.

Cincinnati struggled to put away FCS Towson in their opener, needing some explosive plays to pull away in the second half. It never came close to covering the 34.5-point spread.

The Bearcats followed that up with what may be the worst collapse in a game so far this season. Cincy led Pitt 27-3 in the third quarter last week before the Panthers scored 25 unanswered points to come back and win 28-27. 

It doesn’t get any easier this week because it’s the other Battle of Ohio as the Bearcats head to Miami (OH) to take on the Miami RedHawks. Now, normally, you might think, “A MAC team? This looks like a get-right spot for Cincy.”

Well, not so fast.

Miami might be the MAC’s best team. They have a legit quarterback in Brett Gabbert and an elite defense. The RedHawks have played just one game this season, but they played Northwestern tough in a 13-6 loss on the road.

Oh, and Miami has the confidence, knowing they can win this matchup. All they did was beat Cincinnati outright 31-24 as 14-point road underdogs last season. 

Miami will be a live dog in this game, and one of the reasons why is because the Cincinnati offense has been inefficient, relying on explosive plays in its first two games. The RedHawks will limit those plays. 

On offense, Miami will also try to milk the clock with the ground game against Cincinnati’s poor run defense, and pick their spots to attack with Gabbert. This should limit possessions and the Bearcats' scoring opportunities. 

Vanderbilt team total Over 27.5

Best odds: -120 at FanDuel

I’m feeling pretty good about my Vanderbilt Commodores Over 2.5 regular season win total pick at this point.

The Commodores followed their upset win over Virginia Tech by completely dismantling FCS Alcorn State 55-0, and now they are 10.5-point road favorites for this week’s matchup against the Georgia State Panthers.

While this good feeling might not last once Vandy begins SEC play, the Commodores are certainly one of the better stories in the early part of this college football season. There are a few reasons for that positivity.

One is that Vandy is well-coached by Clark Lea, who is now in his fourth season in Nashville. Lea has a reputation for getting the most out of his players and he needs to because, with Vanderbilt’s high academic standards, it can be hard for the Commodores to effectively use the transfer portal.

But boy is there an exception to that this season. Lea brought in New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia (plus his offensive coordinator), and it has injected life into this Vanderbilt offense.

Pavia is a true dual-threat QB who led the Aggies to a surprising berth in the C-USA championship, not to mention he made them one of the best bets in the country, covering the spread in 10 straight games at one point last season. 

Pavia carried that over to the start of his Vanderbilt career. He has thrown for 273 yards with two touchdowns and no picks while adding another 155 yards and two scores on the ground. He is leading an offense that has put up 89 points in its first two games, and I don’t know if this Georgia State team can slow them down.

The Panthers have struggled through two games, dropping their opener 35-12 to Georgia Tech before needing a late touchdown to beat FCS Chattanooga 24-21. The defense has been gashed, ranking 128th in opponent yards per game and 101st in opponent yards per rush.

Look for Vanderbilt to lean on its power running game on the way to another solid offensive performance and hit the Over on their reasonable team total of 27.5.

Air Force-Baylor first half Under 24.5

Best odds: -110 at bet365

Anyone who knows me knows I love a good service academy game, especially when I’m betting an Under. That brings me to this weekend’s matchup between the Air Force Falcons and the Baylor Bears. While this isn’t exactly a "Service Academy Under" spot where two triple-option teams beat on each other, it isn’t far off either.

Not only has Air Force been the class of the Service Academy programs in recent years, but they have also been a bonafide contender in the Mountain West as well. Unfortunately for Air Force, this is a bit of a transition year, and the Falcons may take a bit of a step back.

Air Force returns only seven starters this season. The team replaced the entire offensive line, and you have been able to see the struggles early on this season. We are used to watching Air Force get behind a strong offensive line and grind out drives six yards at a time, but this season they are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

As a result, the Falcons opened the season with a 21-6 win over FCS Merrimack, failing to cover the 30-point spread. They followed that up with a 17-7 loss to San Jose State as 3-point home chalk.

But do you think that’s going to stop Air Force from running the football? Of course it won’t.

Then there is this week’s opponent – Baylor. Even though the Bears brought in former MAC Player of the Year Dequan Finn, the offense has looked bad through their first two games. Baylor enters this matchup ranked 106th in yards per play, and maybe more surprisingly, they are running the ball nearly 75% of the time.

And while Air Force has some flaws, the defense is arguably its strength. The Falcons rank 40th in yards per play allowed and are limiting opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry.

This may not be a Service Academy Under, but is sure going to feel like one. That said, I am a little concerned about Baylor’s talent edge winning out over 60 minutes, so let’s bet this game to go Under the first-half total.