NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Rams Get Revenge Against Sanders & Co.

Memphis (+6.5) vs Florida State

Best odds: +220 at BetMGM

The issues for the Florida State Seminoles go beyond just the play of quarterback DJ Uiagelelei. They're struggling to stop the run consistently, and they’re not having much success running it themselves. 

That said, the struggles of Uiagalelei are why the Memphis Tigers are going to win this game. He’s completing just one third of his throws 10+ yards downfield this season, and his inaccuracy is allowing teams to stack the box and bring pressure. 

This Tigers defense is legit. They’ve got an outstanding linebacking corps and are registering Havoc on nearly 25% of their defensive snaps. They’ve got a run stuff rate of 23% and rank 19th in the nation in total defense. 

Quarterback Seth Henigan leads a balanced offense that has scored 20+ points in 29 straight contests. He’s got a solid running back in Mario Anderson Jr, and the two will look to take advantage of an FSU defense that's allowing 4.5 points on drives that extend into its half of the field.

Florida State isn’t registering explosive plays, and its defense is allowing far too many of them. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Memphis offense that’s running the ball very well and has posted a 1.41 EPA on successful pass plays in 2024. 

I expect Uigelelei to be forced to go make plays, and that simply won’t happen. Memphis will get the lead, and its run game will shorten the contest and keep the pressure on the home team.

Mike Norvell’s former team comes into Tallahassee with something to prove. A win over the Noles would put them in the conversation for the College Football Playoff, and that’s exactly what the Tigers will get when the final whistle blows. 

North Texas (+10) vs Texas Tech

Best odds: +340 at FanDuel

Tahj Brooks looks set to make his debut for the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday, which is great news for their offense. The problem is, he’s leaving an injury list that has become quite crowded.

Texas Tech will be without seven defensive starters against the North Texas Mean Green and could have another three or four players missing from the offensive first-team unit. That defense struggled mightily so far this season, allowing 88 points in the first two games. 

However, it’s not just the raw stats that show the Red Raiders defense is ripe for the picking. On top of having a 43% success rate against them on passing downs, they’re also picking up chunks. Only seven teams have allowed more plays of 10+ yards so far than Texas Tech — three of those have played an extra game. And only Jacksonville State and Georgia Tech have given up more 20+ yard plays.

North Texas has 51 plays of 10+ yards and ranks 10th in 20-yard plays this season. While they’ve not faced the greatest competition so far, quarterback Chandler Morris is a TCU transfer who has seen Big 12 teams before. The key here will be third-down success. The Mean Green rank third in college football, having converted on two-thirds of their third-down attempts, and their ability to run the ball should keep them ahead of the chains.

The Texas Tech offense will find success against an average North Texas defense, but Boyd won’t find things easy against a solid front seven. On the other side, the Mean Green will be able to shorten the game by keeping it on the ground with Damashja Harris. 

That will help keep the Red Raiders offense off the field, much like Washington State did last week as they held Texas Tech to just 16 points. That should be enough to help North Texas have a shot to win it at the end.

Colorado vs Colorado State (+7.5)

Best odds: +225 at bet365

The Colorado Buffaloes hype train may not be fully derailed, but it’s sure looking wobbly. The Colorado State Rams would love to be the team that sends the Buffaloes careening off the tracks.

 The Rams lost a feisty 2OT heartbreaker last season to their rivals, and they’ve made it very clear they want revenge. Star receiver Tory Horton said “We owe them one.” among other fiery comments — and while he’s questionable with a groin injury, it’s hard to see him not playing if he can run at all.

Head coach Jay Norvell was taking shots at Coach Prime in the offseason as well, and there’s plenty of bad blood from a 2023 meeting that saw Travis Hunter suffer a lacerated liver. Needless to say, the Rams have all the motivation they could want.

However, they’ll be able to get the job done even without emotion. The loss of Shilo Sanders — who will miss a few weeks after forearm surgery — makes an already bad Colorado defense even more susceptible, and he’s not the only injury Colorado must contend with. Cornerback Isaiah Hardge’s status is in the air, as is that of defensive tackle Chidozie Nwankwo.

On the offensive side of the ball, Shedeur Sanders might be without running back Dallan Hayden. That makes things tougher for an already struggling run game, as he’s the only Buffalo with 20+ rushing yards on the season.

Colorado struggled to protect Sanders against Nebraska's pass rush last week, as he was sacked five times and pressured relentlessly. The absence of a run game will make it easier for the Rams to pin their ears back on the pass rush, and I promise those hits will hurt more than the ones Nebraska delivered last week.

With that said, the best way to shut down Sanders is to keep him on the sideline. Norvell has shown he wants to run the ball and Justin Marshal should find success. He topped the century mark on the ground against Texas and he partnered with Keegan Holles last week as they rushed for a combined 156 yards on 10 carries apiece.

Colorado’s defense has an abysmal stuff rate against the run and it’s not creating many plays in the backfield. The Buffaloes have limited explosive run plays, but the Huskers had four players register at least one 10-yard carry last week.

The Buffaloes aren’t creating turnovers, they’re not converting on third down, they can’t run the ball, and they can’t protect their quarterback. Add in the fact they’re one of the most penalized teams in all of college football, and I see a recipe for things falling apart in what will be an unbelievably hostile environment. Give me the Rams to get their revenge.