Coming off a Week 2 win against the defending national champions, Texas welcomes a UTSA program to Austin that’s fresh off a blowout loss.
Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, it won’t get easier in Week 3, and my Texas vs. UTSA predictions are for another tough L.
I highlight why this game is bound to be a blowout in my college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
UTSA vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Texas -35.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This isn’t the UTSA team of past years. Clearly the Roadrunners are feeling the impact of QB Frank Harris, the best player in program history, finally running out of eligibility.
After a sloppy win in Week 1 against a Kennesaw State team playing its first game as a member of the FBS, UTSA had an anvil dropped on its head in Week 2. Rival Texas State won 49-10, exposing its defense and highlighting just how great a college QB Harris was for Jeff Traylor.
So, to expect this team to slow down Quinn Ewers while he’s playing the best football of his collegiate career is a stretch.
Behind Ewers, Texas just beat Michigan with ease and is now fourth in SP+, and second on offense. The new pieces Steve Sarkisian brought in via the transfer portal are clicking, making Ewers & Co. impossible to stop for a Group of Five team.
Colorado State already found that out the hard way in Week 1 when the Longhorns blew the Rams out 52-0. This could be a similar performance for Ewers with the way Gunnar Helm, Isaiah Bond, and Matthew Golden are playing around him.
Not to mention, Texas has a Top 5 offensive line in the country led by potential first-round pick Kelvin Banks. The big boys up front are a large reason the Longhorns are second in EPA per play on offense.
Meanwhile, the Roadrunners just don’t have the talent to keep up. New starting QB Owen McCown got pulled last week against the Bobcats after going just 10-for-23 with 105 yards in the loss.
This doesn’t look like a Traylor offense at all so far, it’s 92nd in EPA per play and can barely throw the ball. And it’s somehow worse on the ground, ranking 108th in EPA per rush.
Texas has too much talent to not blow UTSA out with SP+ projecting a 48-10 win.
UTSA vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas -35.5
Quinn Ewers 3+ passing TDs
Isaiah Bond Over 54.5 receiving yards
It’s hard to find a QB playing better football than Ewers right now, and he’s a Heisman odds favorite because of it.
He's thrown three touchdowns in both games this season and is coming off a performance against the Wolverines where he was credited with two big-time throws, per PFF.
One player benefiting from Ewers’ play has been Bond. The Alabama transfer’s speed is a game-changer for the offense, and he’s averaging 56 yards per game thus far and 2.33 yards per route run.
That duo is set to torch a UTSA defense that’s 91st in EPA per play and 106th in EPA per dropback with the 97th ranked defense in SP+.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UTSA vs Texas odds
UTSA vs Texas live odds
UTSA vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: UTSA +35 (-110) | Texas -35 (-110)
- Moneyline: UTSA OTB | Texas OTB
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
UTSA vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off its win over Michigan, Texas opened as a 34.5-point favorite, with the line moving further in the Longhorns' direction to between -35.5 and -36.
- Texas is 2-0 ATS this season, while UTSA is 0-2.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 53.5 and has since come up to 55.5 at most books.
- The Longhorns and Road Runners are both 1-1 betting the Over.
UTSA vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas have covered the spread in five of its last eight games at home (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UTSA vs Texas.
UTSA vs Texas game info
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
UTSA vs Texas latest injuries
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