The world’s fascination with the Colorado Buffaloes continues, receiving more bets to win as an underdog at BetMGM than anyone else on the Week 2 slate.
However, those wagers overlook the Nebraska Cornhuskers’ advantage in the trenches, and leaning on that will inform tonight's Colorado vs. Nebraska predictions. My college football picks will trust the Huskers to dictate the terms of this game, before kickoff at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 7.
Colorado vs Nebraska prediction
My best bet
Emmett Johnson Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Pick any metric and the Colorado rushing defense failed at it in 2023. The Buffaloes gave up 4.69 yards per carry, No. 103 in the country. That rank is worse in reality, given college stats still include sacks as rushes. Remove those for everyone in the country and Colorado’s rush defense would have ranked even lower because it was also sub-par at getting to opposing quarterbacks.
Last Thursday, FCS-level North Dakota State took 41 rushes for 168 yards (sacks adjusted), a 4.1 yards per carry average. The sheer volume of rushes stood out, 41 compared to just 28 dropbacks (again sacks adjusted). The Bison knew they had an advantage in the trenches, and they leaned on it a few yards at a time.
Advanced metrics paint an even more dire picture for the Buffaloes. Those numbers still lean heavily on 2023, obviously, but Colorado ranks No. 119 in defensive success rate against the rush. It was worth noting that opponents still preferred to pass against the Buffaloes last year, doing so at a Top-20 rate when considering usual game-state expectations, a reflection of how wretched Colorado’s pass defense was in 2023.
That may have improved a touch, but the rush defense will look vulnerable against a veteran Nebraska offensive line. Cornhuskers' junior running back Emmett Johnson had eight carries for 71 yards last week, and Nebraska should turn to the run to salt away a second-half lead.
The Buffaloes simply cannot stop the ground game, and doubting Colorado’s defensive line has been a profitable choice since Deion Sanders arrived in Boulder. That will not change this weekend in Lincoln.
Colorado vs Nebraska same-game parlay (SGP)
Emmett Johnson Over 39.5 rushing yards
Colorado team total Under 24.5 points
Nebraska first half moneyline
Nebraska moneyline
Do not read into the additional yard on the Emmett Johnson rushing yards prop in this same-game parlay. That is simply a result of BetMGM skewing some things in its SGP menu.
Do read into the doubt of the Buffaloes’ offense. Colorado needed two explosive scores of 41 and 69 yards to get to 31 points against North Dakota State. The Bison are a national title contender at the FCS level and are better than nearly half the FBS. This is not meant to diminish them.
However, North Dakota State was playing without its best safety, and its secondary was not its strength in the first place. Nebraska has a veteran secondary that should cut down on those explosive plays. Shedeur Sanders & Co. will need to mount prolonged drives while somehow surviving the ‘Huskers’ defensive line. Good luck.
That much decisive faith in Nebraska should explain why it is expected to win this game wire-to-wire.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs Nebraska odds
Colorado vs Nebraska live odds
Colorado vs Nebraska opening odds
- Spread: Colorado +7 | Nebraska -7
- Moneyline: Colorado +200 | Nebraska -250
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis
- Lookahead lines positioned Nebraska as a 6.5-point favorite, but last weekend’s results prompted this line to rise to -7. When the market reopened on Sunday, it climbed to -7.5 at most books by Monday’s sunrise.
- In a twist from the public’s usual tendencies, BetMGM reports 55% of the betting handle has been on Nebraska to cover -7.5.
- Lookahead lines had established this total at 60.5, but Colorado’s relative struggles with North Dakota State drove the total down to 56.5 when it reopened. That jumped to 57.5 on Sunday, and then spent part of the midweek at 58.5 before returning to 56.5 on Thursday afternoon. It's currently the second most bet Over (by ticket) at BetMGM.
- Colorado has seen heavy all week at BetMGM. "The public is all over the Buffaloes' moneyline while the sharps tend to be on the Cornhusker’s spread," said Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM.
Colorado vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Colorado has lost eight of its last nine games against Power Four opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs. Nebraska.
Colorado vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Colorado vs Nebraska latest injuries
Colorado vs Nebraska weather
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