It's a regular season rematch in the SEC Championship when Georgia faces off against Texas at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday.
Both of these teams are *probably* in the college football playoff, but the Dogs, in particular, won't want to leave it to chance. Georgia gave us potentially — no, it was — the wildest game of the entire season when it went to an unbelievable eight overtimes against rival Georgia Tech. Texas went into College Station, Texas, and mostly handed its rival Texas A&M with minimal fuss.
My early Georgia vs. Texas predictions and college football picks lean towards the Longhorns, but only just.
Georgia vs Texas predictions
Early spread lean
Texas -2.5 (-115at BetMGM)
My analysis
Surfing through the social media corner of Georgia fans on Monday revealed just how shocked the fanbase was to be an underdog here. Who could blame them? After all, logically, the Dawgs were expected to be a favorite after having already won this game by 15 points in Austin almost a month ago.
However, a few things are missed in the middle of that rage, so I'm leaning on Texas to get the cover.
The biggest random instance in that game was Texas fumbling the ball three times. It's just not going to be duplicated again. Quinn Ewers may have a mediocre performance again, leaving Texas fans pushing hard to play Arch Manning. Carson Beck could have another multiple-turnover game yet again because he's facing one of the best defenses in the country and has shown that he'll throw it up for grabs multiple times this season. But three Texas fumbles? That's just pure fluky and bad luck.
Once you address the narrative of what happened in that matchup, you can look at the game on paper, and when doing that, the matchup tilts the win favorite Horns'.
This is usually the case with any game Texas has been involved in; the story here is that Horn's defensive unit is the best group on the field.
We are fresh off a game in which Georgia Tech really decimated Georgia up front a week ago. You can look at the metrics like havoc or pull up the film, and that reveals itself pretty quickly. Texas may have the best defense in the country, and it will be a much more difficult task than the Yellowjackets presented.
The Horn's front four, with guys like Barryn Sorrell, Jermayne Lole, and a host of others, have shown the ability to disrupt the gameplan of things altogether. They already did it once against this Georgia team, and when they got pressure on Beck, it showed with three interceptions. Again, they were bailed out because Texas could not hold onto the football. The Texas defense taking over this game is much more replicable than Georgia forcing three fumbles again. I'll take UT to win and cover because Carson Beck is not able to elevate his game, and the Texas defense is wreaking havoc.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Another Texas game, another Under.
I gave out the Under 48.5 as my best bet for Texas vs. Texas A&M a week ago, and we cashed with ease. This week, the first bet I made was the Under here. The total for this game in the first matchup was 57, and we needed a rush of turnovers with short fields to get 45 points. Clearly, there's been some adjustment, but it's not enough of one compared to my total projection of 44.5.
Again, this Texas defense is excellent.
For me, it's either the best or second best in the country, so I plan to back low-scoring games on them the rest of the way. The Horns are one of the few defenses in the country ranking in the top ten of havoc, EPA allowed per rush, and EPA allowed per dropback. It only had one game go over in the first five, and that was because it ran it up against a Florida defense that it overpowered.
The Georgia defense is not great, nor is it to the lofty standards that UGA has grown accustomed to, but it's still quite good.
The Dawgs will come into this game ranking just outside the top 50 in EPA per rush and inside it when it comes to opponents throwing the ball. Perhaps more important to our total, though, is that Georgia has done a fantastic job of winning the field position war, with its opponents, on average, starting on their own 24-yard line.
They'll be laser-focused on that here, and I suspect they'll do an excellent job of it. QB Quinn Ewers has had a season that's met expectations and nothing more. Making him methodically march up the field will be a goal of the Georgia defense because he needs to show more accuracy or has been able to limit mistakes to do that frequently. That helps our Under. I also expect Texas to lean on the run with a backfield that continues to improve against a Georgia front four that has, quite frankly, regressed. That should chew up the clock.
Georgia vs Texas live odds
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