The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will try to keep their long-shot College Football Playoff hopes alive on Tuesday night as they visit the Texas State Bobcats for a Sun Belt showdown.
The Cajuns have been the best team in the conference this season, and I’ll explain why I like them to win this game outright in my Louisiana vs. Texas State predictions.
Read below for a detailed analysis of this matchup in my free college football picks for Tuesday, October 29 when all the action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas.
Louisiana vs Texas State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Louisiana moneyline (+154 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Louisiana has excelled on both sides of the ball this year, which has been enough to get out to a 6-1 record and earn some consideration in Top 25 polling. The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown they can move the ball in both the passing and running games, totaling 444.6 yards per game of total offense, while also holding opponents to just 320 yards and 22.9 points per contest.
The defense will need to show up if they want to escape Texas with a win. Texas State is averaging an impressive 6.4 yards per play on offense and is among the Top 30 teams in the nation in completion percentage (68.5%) and passing yardage per game (274.4). Senior quarterback Jordan McCloud has 1,891 yards and 20 touchdowns in the passing game for the Bobcats on the season.
But McCloud has also thrown seven interceptions and hasn’t looked nearly as productive against reasonably good competition. In Texas State’s last game, McCloud was just 17-for-33 with 173 yards and one touchdown against two interceptions against the Old Dominion Monarchs.
While that was easily his worst game of the year, McCloud has thrown at least one pick in five of the Bobcats’ seven games and has four interceptions in his last three outings. He will struggle against a stingy Louisiana secondary.
With the defense ensuring they don’t need to win in a shootout, the Cajuns offense should have enough weapons to win. Quarterback Ben Wooldridge has thrown for 15 touchdowns this year while running for five more. Running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry are each averaging well over six yards per carry on the season.
Balance will be key against a Texas State defense that is solid against both the run and the pass, but is most effective when it can unleash a pass rush generating 3.6 sacks per game.
Louisiana has been the better team this year, certainly by a wide enough margin that they shouldn’t be underdogs at home. That’s not to dismiss the Bobcats, who have the tools to make this a tight game all the way through. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have never lost to Texas State and should escape with another victory on Tuesday.
Louisiana vs Texas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Louisiana moneyline
Under 57.5
Jordan McCloud Under 275.5 passing yards
This game is Louisiana’s to lose, and that’s in great part due to the Ragin’ Cajuns defense, which should be able to contain the Bobcats. That’s why I’m pairing a moneyline bet on Louisiana with the Under for my same-game parlay. While both teams average just Under this total, they also both have good matchups defensively, which I expect to keep the scoring in check for much of the night.
Going along with that trend, I’m also taking Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud to come Under his passing yardage prop of 275.5 yards. McCloud has only hit that number in three of his first seven starts, and the Cajuns are holding opposing passers to just 9.7 yards per completion and 166.3 yards per game in the air. It’ll be a tall order for McCloud to get anywhere near his prop total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Louisiana vs Texas State odds
Louisiana vs Texas State live odds
Louisiana vs Texas State opening odds
- Louisiana vs. Texas State spread: Texas State -3.5 (-105)
- Louisiana vs. Texas State moneyline: Louisiana +150, Texas State -185
- Louisiana vs. Texas State Over/Under: 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Louisiana vs Texas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Louisiana and Texas State have identical 3-4 records against the spread this season.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bobcats.
- The Under has a 4-3 record in Louisiana’s games this season, while the Over is 4-3 when Texas State takes the field in 2024.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns are playing to an average total of 57 points, while the Bobcats are averaging a total of 57.3 ppg.
Louisiana vs Texas State betting trend to know
Louisiana is 11-0 straight up all-time vs. Texas State. Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana vs. Texas State.
Louisiana vs Texas State game info
| Location: | Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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