Michigan vs Indiana Prediction and Picks: Go, Kurtis, Go

It’s not often Indiana fans are focused on football in November, but they’ll be rocking Memorial Stadium on Saturday when the Hoosiers host the Michigan Wolverines.

The Hoosiers are ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings, and Curt Cignetti knows a win over Michigan would make a statement. The Wolverines hope they’ve found an answer at quarterback, but the defending champions haven’t fared well on the road this season.

I break down the Big Ten showdown and explain why the Hoosiers will send a message in my Michigan vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks for November 9. 

Michigan vs Indiana prediction and best bet

My best bet
Indiana -14.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

For all the flak Iowa has gotten over the years about being one-dimensional on offense, this year’s version of the Michigan Wolverines might be worse. The Wolverines have shown glimpses, like the 165-yard performance from Davis Warren last week, but there’s been no sign of consistency, especially in their two road games.

That said, it may require an offense with four dimensions to defeat this Indiana Hoosiers team. Defensively, the Hoosiers rank 18th in EPA/drop back and 10th in EPA/rush. The Hoosiers are also limiting teams to a run success rate of just 35%, the 19th-lowest mark in college football. 

Michigan State lost 36 yards on the ground vs. Indiana — yeah, you read that right. Granted, sacks played a big role in that, but even if you only go by what the Spartan running backs did, they gained just 16 yards on 14 carries. 

While Michigan likes to run the ball, it ranks middle of the pack in EPA/rush and averages just 2.8 yards per carry. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, Indiana’s defensive line lives in opposing backfields like they’re trying to capitalize on squatter’s rights. The Hoosiers lead the Big 10 in sacks with 3.50 per conference game, and their 45 tackles for loss also paces all teams in conference play. 

On the other side of the ball, there’s little weakness for a suspect Michigan defense to exploit. A Wolverine defense ranked 94th in EPA/rush and 117th in third down success will struggle against a Hoosier offense ranking in the Top 10 nationally in EPA/pass, early down EPA, and third-down success. 

These two teams have both played Washington and Michigan State. While Michigan lost at Washington and barely beat the Spartans, the Hoosiers wore down the Huskies in a two-touchdown victory and went on the road last weekend and — albeit after a slow start— manhandled Sparty as they rattled off 47 unanswered points. 

This Indiana team rarely turns the ball over, and the Wolverines rank in the 100s in turnovers per game. Once Michigan falls behind by double digits — and they will — the Hoosiers will force turnovers and pull away as they pound the Wolverines into submission. 

The Hoosiers have won all eight of their games by at least two touchdowns, and I like them to win by at least 17 here, so I’ll gladly lay the points.

Michigan vs Indiana same-game parlay (SGP)

Indiana -16.5

Michigan 1H team total Under 9.5

Kurtis Rourke 250+ passing yards

+425 at BetMGM

The Hoosiers are going to want to make a statement to the College Football Playoff committee and silence the attacks on their strength of schedule, and I’m building my same-game parlay around that intent. 

In six Big 10 games, the Hoosiers have allowed only 16 red-zone visits, with teams scoring touchdowns on just nine of those trips. In the same number of games, Michigan has just eight touchdowns on 15 trips inside the 20-yard line. The Wolverines won’t get into that area very often in the first half, and I expect what limited chances they do get will result in field goals at best. 

I’m going to take the Hoosiers to not only cover the spread, but win by at least 17 behind the arm of Kurtis Rourke. Concerns about his thumb were quickly put to rest as he threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan State last week.

I expect he’ll top the 250-yard mark yet again. It’s a number he’s cleared in five of his last six games, and he’ll find success against a Michigan defense that struggles at pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. 

The Wolverines have given up 250+ passing yards to Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, and Southern Cal already in Big 10 play, and the Hoosiers will join that list when this one is over. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Michigan vs Indiana odds

Michigan vs Indiana live odds

Michigan vs Indiana opening odds

• Michigan vs. Indiana spread: Indiana -12.5
• Michigan vs. Indiana moneyline: Michigan +450, Indiana -650
• Michigan vs. Indiana Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Michigan vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis

• The betting public jumped on the Hoosiers early, pushing the line up two points from the initial -12.5 line that it opened at last Sunday.
• Since failing to cover in the opener against FIU, the Hoosiers have covered the spread in eight straight games. Michigan is 0-2 ATS on the road, and just 2-7 on the season.
• The total sits at 49.5 which is where it opened, and it’s the highest number for a Michigan game all season. The Wolverines have seen the Over go 5-1 in their last six games, but they’ve scored more than 17 points just once in four contests.
• The Hoosiers have been an Over machine, with seven in their last eight games, with this total being their third-lowest of the year.

Michigan vs Indiana betting trend to know

Indiana has put 40+ points on the board in seven of their last eight games. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Indiana.

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