It's another college football game where you may do a double take as the Michigan Wolverines meet the Washington Huskies in a conference battle tonight.
It seems hard to believe, but Michigan has just one loss this season and is 9-1 over its last 10 games. They've also won two straight since a change at QB.
Washington lost a game it likely shouldn't have last week but continued a trend of sloppy play. That's one of the reasons why I'm fading the Huskies in my Michigan vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Michigan vs Washington prediction
My best bet
Michigan +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Let's rewind to April when the look-ahead college football lines were released.
At that point the Michigan Wolverines, a defending national champion, were listed as a 10.5-point favorite over the Washington Huskies, a team that had lost its coach and QB after losing to this team in the championship game.
Since then, things have changed significantly. Michigan finally lost, for one. But in general, its offense looked hopeless throughout most of the season until two weeks ago when a QB change provided a spark.
It seems like a past narrative has followed this team, and thoughts haven't evolved beyond that. Should there be almost two touchdowns of movement here? I certainly don't think so. Especially when you consider that Washington has looked chiefly like what we expected them to.
Neither of these teams has played a complete game this season, and they share many similarities. I can't get behind any viewpoint that suggests there's been that much of a difference from the preseason number. It's a hyper-overreaction focused on the Wolverines' woes rather than on the other side.
Washington's offense will come into this game a bit hobbled. Multiple Huskies pass catchers are out of the game entirely, and others are nursing minor ailments. It will be tough going for Washington against a defense that creates defensive Havoc at a top-50 rate. It becomes much more complex without those players, especially considering that Michigan is expected to get Will Johnson back.
The junior, one of the country's best secondary players, already has two interceptions despite missing last week's game but is expected to return on Saturday. His ball-hawking skills could be heightened against a WR core that may struggle to get separation from defenders.
This profiles as a defensive struggle, and I'm not expecting much from the Michigan offense, but what happened last week is noteworthy.
Washington faced a similar setup that they'll see this week when they faced Rutgers. Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano has candidly admitted that they've emulated some of the things Michigan does on the offensive side of the ball. The Huskies were probably unlucky enough to come away with a loss, but make no mistake, they were punched in the mouth. Rutgers ran on them regularly, hitting nearly 150 yards on the ground.
Michigan can replicate this same style and do it even better to get the same result.
Michigan vs Washington same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan +1.5
Kalel Mullings anytime TD
Michigan vs. Washington Under 41.5
Kalel Mullings has various things working for him that make his anytime TD prop a good bet.
For starters, I wonder if Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore trusts his young quarterback in red zone situations to throw the ball, so the volume should be good given that Michigan should get close to scoring multiple times.
The other part of this is prominent, though, and that's the aforementioned struggles for Washington when facing a ground-and-pound rushing team like Rutgers last week — they struggle to stop them.
The Under is mostly a projection play, as I have 38.5 points projected here. The handicap of the game supports that, too.
Washington isn't going to allow many explosive plays, and Michigan isn't going to try many. On the other side of the ball, Michigan remains an all-around solid defensive unit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Washington odds
Michigan vs Washington live odds
Michigan vs Washington opening odds
- Michigan vs. Washington spread: Washington -1.5
- Michigan vs. Washington moneyline: Michigan +100, Washington -120
- Michigan vs. Washington Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis
- Michigan has been perfectly even over the last 10 games ATS with a 5-5 record.
- Washington has been the same but, more recently, has covered just once in four games.
- Washington has hit the Under in nine of its last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI).
Michigan vs Washington betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Washington.
Michigan vs Washington game info
| Location: | Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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