The UCLA Bruins (1-4) will look to get on track as they host the 3-3 Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday in Pasadena.
Despite the Bruins' horrendous start to 2024, my Minnesota vs. UCLA predictions are taking the points with the home underdog when these two teams grace the field at the Rose Bowl.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Minnesota vs UCLA prediction and best bet
My best bet
UCLA +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There are a lot of negatives you can point out about the UCLA Bruins in 2024. In fact, I’ve already done so many times this season — it’s been ugly.
That said, Deshaun Foster’s team is a 5.5-point home underdog against a Minnesota Golden Gophers team that lost at home to North Carolina and again at home by 17 points to Iowa.
Let's also take a second to consider who the Bruins have played over the last four weeks. No. 18 Indiana is undefeated and has been destroying teams along the way; No. 13 LSU was tied at the half and needed a late surge to get past the Bruins; No. 3 Oregon is a clear playoff contender, and the same can be said for No. 4 Penn State.
The combined record of UCLA’s last four opponents is 20-1. Has UCLA looked great when playing tough competition? No. Were they expected to shine against overwhelming opponents? Also no.
Now’s the time to buy low on the Bruins against a beatable Minnesota squad. The Golden Gophers are at their best running the ball, but that plays right into UCLA's defensive strength (27th in EPA per rush, second in rushing explosiveness).
Defensive tackle Jay Toia is UCLA’s best player and has been returning to health, leading the way for UCLA to allow just 3.4 yards per rush. This is also expected to be a low-scoring game, as both teams rank in the bottom 20 in tempo. The slower pace will shorten the game and minimize scoring opportunities, making the underdog more appealing in this environment.
Meanwhile, Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers was taking first-team reps during Wednesday’s practice, and his return could provide a small boost to this offense. Teams like USC and Iowa both moved the ball against the Gophers, who have benefitted from forcing 13 turnovers (+6 differential) while playing a very soft slate of opposing offenses.
Plug your nose and back the Bruins in Week 7.
Minnesota vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
UCLA +5.5
Under 40.5
UCLA has been dead set on the Under this season at 1-4 O/U. That’s not a surprise considering the offense ranks 132nd in success rate and plays at a very slow tempo (1.93 plays per minute).
Installing Eric Bieniemy’s offensive scheme has led to plenty of growing pains. The Bruins have still been able to create some chunk plays, ranking 20th in explosiveness, but it’d be a surprise if they lit up the scoreboard anytime soon.
Minnesota will be happy to oblige in a game where the ball is snapped as seldomly as possible. The Gophers average just 2.03 plays per minute and just 19.8 points per game against Power Conference teams.
Greg Harbaugh’s unit has failed to reach 300 yards of offense against three of the four Power Conference defenses it has faced. The lone exception came last week against USC when Minnesota had just 10 points entering the fourth quarter. However, they ended up capitalizing on injuries to three of the Trojans' top defensive players — Eric Gentry, Anthony Lucas, and Jacobe Covington.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs UCLA odds
Minnesota vs UCLA live odds
Minnesota vs UCLA opening odds
- Minnesota vs. UCLA spread: UCLA +5.5
- Minnesota vs. UCLA moneyline: Minnesota -200, UCLA +165
- Minnesota vs. UCLA Over/Under: 40.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Minnesota vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bruins are 3-0 ATS in their last three games and 4-2 ATS in their last six.
- UCLA is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.
- Minnesota has only prevailed in one of its last six road games.
- UCLA has been an Under team through and through, going 3-10 O/U in its last 13 contests.
Minnesota vs UCLA betting trend to know
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs UCLA.
Minnesota vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Minnesota vs UCLA latest injuries
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